SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 1/27/26 6:15 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 27th) we have light to moderate NW ground swell in SoCal. A decent sized NW ground swell is due Thursday the 29th into Friday the 30th. A bigger NW ground swell is due Sunday the 1st into Monday the 2nd. More NW swells are being watched for late next week, and beyond. Condition-wise: fair weather continues but shifts during the weekend; winds stay moderate and trend offshore for a little while; tide levels swing wide later in the week; and water temps are fair for this time of year.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 305° with occasional 17-second periods from 300°.
Most west facing breaks were running waist to chest high. South facing spots were mostly knee to waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.4' (south facing) to 2.2' (west facing).
Tide levels swing wider over the next few days as we approach a Full Moon Sunday the 1st. Today we have a 5.5' high around 3:30 AM, a 0.1' low around noon, and a 3' high around 6:30 PM. By the weekend, that early morning high will run about 7' after sunrise and lows will be nearly -2' in the afternoon. With a water depth difference of about Δ9', conditions, size, and the position of the line-up will change hour by hour.
Water temps were running 59-62° in most of SD and OC. LA was running 58-60°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 60° overnight. SB Harbor reported 60° last night.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 27th) and Wednesday the 28th are waiting days before a series of NW swells come ashore in SoCal. For now, we're seeing fading NW ground swell along with periodic swell from distant WestPac activity late last week, which should keep west facing breaks in waist to at times chest high waves Wednesday the 28th.
Thursday the 29th is the starting day for that series of NW swells being sent our way from the North Pacific's better positioned jetstream/storm-track (model by NOAA MAG):
That low latitude jetstream (green) is running uninterrupted from the Western Pacific across almost the entirety of the North Pacific. This allows swell-making storms spinning off Japan to grow along the way while directing their wave energy at SoCal. On the last leg of the North Pacific crossing, high pressure over the American West thwarts the storm-track to the north, keeping rain and winds away from SoCal, leaving us with clean ground swells with good conditions. But, there will be one wrench in the works: a radical tidal swing later this week with very deep early morning highs that'll go extremely negative in the afternoon. Those deep AM highs could slow down many spots, and the prime mid-tide sessions will have a shorter than normal window. Tidal depths will also recede in the morning, lacking the benefit from tidal push. Nevertheless, there's a slew of clean NW ground swells headed our way — it's just that session timing may be tricky to optimize them.
Thursday the 29th (building day) into Friday the 30th (peak) should see the first NW ground swell from this system, growing into a hefty fetch of 25-30' seas right before turning north (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Thursday the 29th should start out at chest high for the dawn patrols with size increasing throughout the morning. By Friday the 30th, most west facing breaks should run head high to 2' overhead with swell angled from 295° and periods 16 seconds. This swell should linger in the head high range Saturday the 31st.
Sunday the 1st and Monday the 2nd should see the next NW ground swells from these back-to-back systems (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
I popped in arrows to show the jetstream's course and noted the remnant fetch for the swell this Thursday into Friday. But the main points of interest are the systems farther west, poised to cross our ideal swell window across the Aleutian-Hawaiian longitude. But while NW ground swell will be sent our way once those systems peak tomorrow, the second system is expected to take a temporary, lower latitude course, directing even more of its swell to SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That will send a more notable increase to west facing breaks Monday the 2nd. Working the numbers on both systems this morning, we should see initially head high surf at west facing breaks Sunday the 1st, angled from 295° and periods 16 seconds. Monday the 2nd should then run 1-3' overhead at west facing breaks with swell angled primarily from 285° and periods 16 seconds. Tuesday the 3rd would run head high to 2' overhead. Wednesday the 4th would likely drop to chest high with rare pluses. Some of this is on the 2-day models so I'll firm it up in my next report.
Thursday the 5th (late) into Friday the 6th and Saturday the 7th, could see two bands of NW ground swell from this pair of storms on the 6-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This would bring initially chest high waves to west facing breaks Thursday the 5th, building later in the day, peaking Friday the 6th at head high, and lingering at chest to head high Saturday the 7th. Swell from this would be angled from 295° with periods 16 seconds. However, a few days after those storms peak, these closer-proximity systems could bring bigger swell from a lower latitude, also arriving Friday the 6th (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Those hold potential for sets running 2' overhead at west facing breaks Friday the 6th with swell angled almost directly at SoCal from 280°. Periods would run 15 seconds. All of this is nearly a week out on the long range so I'll need more time.
Monday the 9th could see the next NW ground swell as models continue to show the jetstream staying at surf-worthy latitudes, guiding more storms out of the Western Pacific (model from NOAA OPC):
That's out on the 9-day projection, but models are well aligned so confidence is high. This needs more monitoring but as long as I have your support then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 28th looks about waist high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 29th should see NW ground swell build during the day, starting out at chest high early but building throughout the day.
Friday the 30th is expected to run head high to 2' overhead at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 31st looks about head high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 1st is expected to run head high at west facing breaks.
Monday the 2nd, so far, is expected to run 1-3' overhead at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 3rd, so far, looks about head high+ at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 4th, so far, looks about chest to at times head high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 5th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks but with swell building later in the day.
Friday the 6th, so far, looks about head high to 2' overhead at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 7th, so far, looks about head high to 2' overhead at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 8th, so far, looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Monday the 9th could see the next NW ground swell...more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 27th) through Saturday the 31st should be mostly clear from high pressure parked over the American West. Some days will see high clouds stream overhead from storm activity passing to the north. Things change Sunday the 1st into Monday the 2nd as models deal with either a trough of low pressure or cut-off low (depending on the model one picks from the deck) that'd either get quite close to SoCal or pass through SoCal. No model shows rain from either scenario; instead, the more likely scenario is for initially an increased onshore flow Sunday, followed by an inside-slider Santa Ana (NNE wind event). This is a departure from models a couple days ago and models are far from aligned. So for now, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 27th) should be clear with beach max temps in the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 28th could see thin AM marine layer early, but with partly- to mostly-cloudy skies for most of the day. Beach max temps should reach the mid 60s.
Thursday the 29th looks clear as high pressure strengthens slightly. Beach max temps should reach 70°.
Friday the 30th should be clear with beach max temps around 70°.
Saturday the 31st should be clear with beach max temps around 70°.
Sunday the 1st, so far, is expected to see early AM marine layer followed by partly-cloudy skies (from upper-level clouds). Beach max temps should dip to the mid 60s.
Monday the 2nd, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer with a mid- to late-morning burn-off and max beach temps in the low 60s.
Tuesday the 3rd could see an inside-slider NNE wind event get underway that'd shift to a NE Santa Ana by Wednesday the 4th. This needs more monitoring over the next few days.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were lightly offshore in many spots. Offshores should max out around 10 mph this morning and then shift onshore this afternoon to 10 mph.
Wednesday the 28th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Thursday the 29th should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Friday the 30th should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Saturday the 31st should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
