SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 10/9/25 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 9th) swell from Priscilla will fill in throughout the day, peaking Friday the 10th. A series of NW wind swells are due starting this weekend into next week. NW ground swell follows on the tail end of that through the second half of next week. Condition-wise: spotty rain today but heavy rain possible next week; winds problematic at times; the tide is swinging wide; water temps will likely drop in a few days; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 190°, 12-14 seconds from 155-165°, and 13 seconds from 305°.
Most south facing breaks were running waist to chest high early this morning, although size should increase later today. West facing breaks were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 3'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.5-2.0'.
Tide levels are swinging wide from Monday's Full Moon. Today we have a 1.5' low around 5:00 AM, a near 7' high around 11:00 AM, a -0.5' low around 6:00 PM, and a 4' high around midnight. Note that the extremely deep late morning high could slow- or shut-down many spots within a couple hours of the high tide times over the next few days.
Water temps were running 64-68° in most of SD and OC yesterday. LA was mostly 63-67°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 68° this morning. SB Harbor reported 67° last night. Water temps will likely drop during the weekend, more so early next week as winds increase in the outer waters, which could cause upwelling near the coast.
Hazardous Marine Warnings: Strong winds will be an issue over the next few days (see Weather and Wind sections below), especially in the outer waters, creating a number of hazards for mariners. The NWS has issued warnings as well (see warnings and advisories for SB, VC, LA here and OC and SD here).
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 9th) swell from Priscilla has been tapping the SoCal buoys over the past few hours, signaling this swell's initial arrival after taking this course just outside of our swell window (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Priscilla's path was on the eastern fringe of the SoCal swell window, which starts around 110°W longitude. The core of Priscilla peaked around 112°W (SoCal is centered around 118°W). This is making for steep angled swell from around 155-160°, which is tough for SoCal. But, that energy will wrap (diffract) into SoCal, losing size but still notable. Working the numbers based off the peak of Priscilla's fetch yesterday (housing 30-35' seas off Baja), we should see swell fill into south facing breaks today, peaking early in the morning Thursday the 10th. At its peak, this swell should produce sets running upwards of head high at many south facing breaks, with standouts that can work a steep SE seeing sets up to 3' overhead. Note that breaks affected by island blockage and/or poor SE exposure may only top out at chest high. This will make for inconsistent sets with even the smaller spots seeing surprise outsiders at times. HOWEVER, to complicate matters further, we're dealing with an exceptionally wide tidal swing with a very deep high tide near 7' by late morning today and Friday, which could slow- or shut-down many spots, especially the reefs and points.
BTW: Today into Friday the 10th should see two other background swells: spotty chest max sets at south facing breaks from a Pitcairn storm, and waist+ sets at west facing breaks from an Aleutian storm. Priscilla should overshadow both of those lesser swells by Friday morning.
Saturday the 11th, as Priscialla lingers to a lesser degree with her swell in its final throes, we should see a notable increase in NW wind swell as a cut-off low (red arrow) bears down on SoCal, interacting with Priscilla noted by the green arrow (model by NOAA MAG):
That pattern will also affect SoCal weather today and I'll get to that in the Weather and Wind sections below. As for swell, this should kick up at least chest high wind swell at west facing breaks Saturday the 11th, lingering to varying degrees Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th. It's quite possible that some of that wind swell could produce head high set waves at times at west facing spots. But that's just round one.
Monday the 13th through Wednesday the 15th is looking at a very potent low dropping into SoCal, kicking up more NW wind swell, winds, and potentially heavy rain (model by NOAA MAG):
Taking a more over-water course increases the chances for rain, and rain amounts. Winds are looking quite strong, blowing out conditions early while producing wind swell waves upwards of head high at west facing breaks by Wednesday the 15th. Conditions may be trashed from heavy rain as well, which I'll delve into in the Weather section below.
Wind swell aside, Monday the 13th (building day) into Tuesday the 14th, we should also see spotty, intermittent southerly swell come ashore from this system that spun up near Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
On its own that'd produce waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks by Tuesday the 14th (building Monday the 13th) angled from 195° with periods 16 seconds. But with strong wind swell potential around this time, the NW wrap could be equal-to or greater in size. For now, I'd call Monday the 13th as chest+ at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing breaks; and Tuesday the 14th waist to chest everywhere before a significant increase in NW wind swell late Tuesday the 14th into Wednesday the 15th.
Wednesday the 15th, as wind swell peaks, we're looking at the first of two bands of NW ground swell arriving from these Western Pacific storms that should peak in the next 24 hours (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
The most northern WestPac system (breaking off the Kamchatka Peninsula) should crash into the Aleutians and die in the Bering Sea. Housing 35' seas before it does should result in chest to at times head high sets at SoCal's west facing breaks Wednesday the 15th, with swell angled from 310° and periods 17 seconds. Wind swell though may be rather strong Wednesday the 15th, so the WestPac NW swell should be cleaner Thursday the 16th, while still running about chest high. But the distance on that WestPac swell should result in inconsistent sets with few waves per set and long lulls between sets.
Friday the 17th should see the second NW swell. That storm is Typhoon Halong, which is taking an easterly course, retrograding out of the Western Pacific. Housing 30-35' seas, that should produce chest high sets at west facing breaks Friday the 17th. It too is distant from SoCal, so look for inconsistent sets with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Wind swell, btw, should be next to nil Friday the 17th (by the looks of things right now).
BTW: Swell from Raymond that was being watched for the 14th-15th is now a no-go as models have downgraded the storm so I'll drop it from the forecast.
In any case, the weekend of the 18th-19th should see a light to moderate flow of NW ground swell. While swell from Halong and the Kamchatka storm start to fade, models continue to favor some activity around the Aleutians that would produce at least waist+ sets at west facing breaks both days, angled from 310° with periods 15 seconds. So all told, although it's early in the game, I'd call for waist to chest high waves at west facing breaks Saturday the 18th and Sunday the 19th, with smaller size at south facing spots for now. There's still a lot to monitor over the coming days, but as long as I have your support then I can continue watching the Pacific for SoCal waves and weather to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Friday the 10th should run upwards of head high at many south facing breaks, with standout SE exposed spots running 1-3' overhead.
Saturday the 11th should see swell from Priscilla back off to around chest to head high at many south facing breaks. Wind swell should run at least chest high at west facing breaks. Conditions are in question (see Weather and Wind sections below).
Sunday the 12th is looking at chest high wind swell at west facing breaks and waist to chest high sets at south facing spots.
Monday the 13th is looking at chest+ wind swell at west facing breaks and waist high waves at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 14th should see waist to chest high waves at most breaks, although wind swell may build quickly. Conditions are in question.
Wednesday the 15th, so far, is expected to see intermittent sets running chest to at times head high at west facing breaks, but NW wind swell may be equal to that. Conditions are in question.
Thursday the 16th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks, smaller at south facing spots.
Friday the 17th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 18th, so far, looks about waist to chest at west facing breaks, smaller at south facing spots.
Sunday the 19th, so far, looks about waist to chest at west facing breaks, smaller at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 9th) should see quick clearing north of LA but there are rain chances south of LA (with LA on the dividing line) from this pattern you may recall from earlier reports, linked to the wind swell we'll see Friday (model by NOAA MAG):
Precip models have stayed the course from this model a couple days ago, showing how SoCal is sandwiched between a storm in the PNW and Priscilla (model by UQAM):
Precip amounts look light today, slowly moving north through SD into OC later today. But at the same time, low pressure from those two storms should interact with each other (each having a difference in pressure between them), while also interacting with much higher pressure (blue circle) east of the 4-Corners region. The result is an increase in winds in SoCal today; although, that's just the first round of winds that'll affect SoCal through the forecast (more on that in a sec). As for temps, beaches should top out in the upper 60s today.
Friday the 10th should see tropical clouds from LA south, but mostly clear skies with minimal marine layer farther north. Precip should be mostly gone on Friday, although some light precip is showing up on the models around SD early to midmorning Friday. Max beach temps should run in the upper 60s on Friday.
Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th should see minimal morning marine layer with midmorning burn-offs and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Monday the 13th is when weather takes a turn as a trough bears down on SoCal, eventually tracking through SoCal Tuesday the 14th into Wednesday the 15th. This is linked to the wind swell around this time, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
That system's over-water course spells rain, and this time it looks heavy (model by UQAM):
One reason for the high rain amounts is the southerly extension of that low (red contoured lines), allowing it to swirl southerly moisture into SoCal from its counterclockwise spin, increasing the likelihood for orographic enhancement, caused by the mountains of SoCal creating a bowl-like effect that piles up copious moisture over SoCal. Early precip estimates point to 1-2" of rain over a good portion of SoCal. That's a bit dubious given the time of year; however, this is a more traditional, jetstream-driven system, not a cut-off low, so it's easier for models to deal with. In any case, beach max temps should drop to the mid 60s early next week. Winds may also be quite strong as well. I'll firm this up over the next few days and have an update in my next report (Sunday).
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores should pick up throughout the morning. Winds should be strong this afternoon from LA north, running 15-20 mph along the coast from LA through VC and parts of SB, although west of Isla Vista (i.e. Gaviota) should see winds near 25 mph mid to late afternoon. South of LA, winds should top out at 15 mph this afternoon. Winds should increase overnight, then lighten up a bit before dawn.
Friday the 10th should see light AM onshore 4-8 mph in most of SoCal; however, in SB west of Isla Vista, early AM winds may already be gusting to 15-20 mph. Afternoon onshores should run 15 mph in most spots with stronger gusts at times to 20 mph from LA north. Winds could persist in the 20-25 mph in SB west of Isla Vista.
Saturday the 11th is looking at early AM onshores to 10 mph, picking up throughout the morning. Many beaches from LA north are likely to see 15-20 mph onshores by noon, becoming slightly stronger in the afternoon. South of LA the afternoon onshores should top out around 15 mph but with gusts to 20 mph at times at wind-prone spots mid to late afternoon. In SB west of Isla Vista, early AM onshores to 20 mph are likely with afternoon onshores 25 mph, possibly up to 30+ mph late afternoon.
Sunday the 12th should see AM light and variables in most spots, although SB west of Isla Vista could see early onshores around 15 mph. Afternoon onshores should run 10-15 mph in most spots, although stronger at 20+ mph in SB west of Isla Vista.
Monday the 13th, so far, is looking at AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 15+ mph in most spots.
Tuesday the 14th could see stronger winds as a storm bears down on SoCal. Winds may reach 25 mph in the afternoon — by the looks of things right now. I'll nail this down further in my next report.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
