SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday Apr. 18, 2024 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 18th) we still have a good deal of southern hemi ground swell in SoCal, which will linger to a lesser degree Friday the 19th. A smaller yet steady flow of SW ground swell lingers this weekend into early next week. Light to moderate NW wind- and ground-swells are expected early next week. Moderate NW ground swell is being watched for the 25th. NW wind swell is becoming likely for the weekend of the 27th-28th. And there's minor SW potential for 5/2. Condition-wise: onshore flow lifts temporarily over the weekend; rain chances are in the forecast; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 16 seconds from 195°.
Most south facing breaks were running chest to head high with occasional pluses at standouts. Direct west facing spots were mostly waist to chest high, bigger through at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.5-3.8' with southern hemisphere ground swell measuring about 2-3' on the spectrum.
Tide levels are moderate. Today we have a 4.5' high around 7:00 AM, a -0.1' low around 1:30 PM, and a 4.7' high around 8:00 PM.
Water temps were running 58-61° in most of SD and OC yesterday. LA was mostly 57-59°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 60° yesterday. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 60° as well.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 18th) southern hemisphere ground swell remains in SoCal from this relatively high latitude system that traveled northward almost two weeks ago on an ideal course for SoCal surf (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
We're on the tail end of the peak swell, which should drop to chest high Friday the 19th, and then waist to chest high Saturday the 20th.
Sunday the 21st and Monday the 22nd should see waist high-ish waves at south facing breaks as continued activity in the lower latitudes will keep a steady stream of small-scaled southern hemi swell coming into SoCal, angled mostly from 185° and periods 15 seconds. We should also see NW wind swell Sunday the 21st and Monday the 22nd, providing waist high waves for west facing breaks, angled from the wind-swell-usual ≥300° with periods 8-10 seconds.
Tuesday the 23rd should see a slight increase in NW wind swell from a passing trough of low pressure, along with minor NW ground swell from Aleutian activity. All told, west facing breaks should top out in the chest max range Tuesday the 23rd with swell primarily angled from 300-305° and periods a mix of 8-10 seconds and 13 seconds.
Also on Tuesday the 23rd we should see SW ground swell fill in that should peak Wednesday the 24th from a system that was in the deep low latitudes near Antarctica earlier this week. Waist to chest is the call for Wednesday the 24th at south facing breaks, with swell angled from 190° and periods 15 seconds. NW swell should drop to waist to chest Wednesday the 24th, so most breaks are looking at waist to chest high sets then. The SW swell should fade to waist max Thursday the 25th, but there is a chance of seeing additional NW ground swell then.
Thursday the 25th has a chance of seeing NW ground swell from this system that could dive southeast from the Gulf of Alaska, making eventual landfall near SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That 4-day NFCENS model aligns with FNMOC's WW3, but the GFS says nay, keeping the wind fields too low for surf-worthy fetch formation. I'm not buying that and I'm sticking with the scenario above since the models that show that fetch also align on weather around that time. Surf-wise, this has potential for chest high waves at west facing breaks Thursday the 25th, angled from 300° with periods 14-15 seconds. Rain is a question mark though as many models like the CMC and ECMWF show that being a semi-wet system — while the GFS keeps it dry, with minimal swell. This is a fairly new development and models are waffling from run-to-run. I'll put a bow on this in my Sunday report.
The weekend of the 27th-28th could see somewhat sizable NW wind swell as this trough of low pressure pushes south along the west coast, through SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Digging so far south with an over-water course smacks of rain, and sure enough the weather models show precip for SoCal around the time; however, models differ on timing, and I'll cover that in the Weather section below. So far, this has wind swell potential in the chest to head high range for west facing breaks over the weekend of the 27th-28th, with rain possibly arriving earlier. I'll need a few more days to see how this develops.
Next up on the SoCal long range surf horizon is potential for light to moderate SW ground swell from a New Zealand system showing up on the 4-day NFCENS and FNMOC WW3 models. At most this would be a chest high swell for south facing breaks building Thursday 5/2 into Friday 5/3, but models have been waffling on that over the past few model runs, so I'll hold off for now and make a call in my Sunday report. Either way, I'll keep my eye on the Pacific and as long as I have your support then I'll be able to keep this report going to keep you posted (more on that here).
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Here's how the day-to-day is breaking down so far:
Friday the 19th looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing spots.
Saturday the 20th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing spots.
Sunday the 21st looks about waist high everywhere.
Monday the 22nd looks about waist high everywhere with occasional pluses at standout south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 23rd looks about waist high everywhere, with some chest high pluses at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 24th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and at least waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 25th, so far, holds potential for chest to head high ground swell at west facing breaks, but there's only about 75% model consensus so far, and weather could be a factor.
Friday the 26th...same deal...need a few more days to nail down that next NW'er.
Saturday the 27th, so far, looks about waist to chest at west facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 18th) an onshore flow is underway that will peak Friday the 19th. Burn-off should occur by early afternoon with max beach temps in the low 60s both days, but the marine layer could be quite stubborn in some spots, especially Friday.
Saturday the 20th into Sunday the 21st sees temporary high pressure build into the American West. Marine layer should be minimal (or nil) with early burn-offs both days (if any marine layer does develop), and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday the 22nd sees high pressure break down as an onshore flow gets underway. Morning marine layer is likely with max beach temps in the low to mid 60s.
Tuesday the 23rd will very likely see a much heavier onshore flow (measuring almost +6mb on a scale of 1-10) as a trough of low pressure begins to push south from the Gulf of Alaska, eventually sliding down the west coast during the second half of the week. Models have differed from run to run — and model to model — over the past couple days, with many models in enough agreement this morning to bet on at least morning drizzle Tuesday the 23rd through Thursday the 25th, but with some models showing light rain Tuesday afternoon (drizzle-plus, most likely). More models this morning are leaning towards measurable precip Friday the 26th as the trough makes its final approach into SoCal, which looks like a 0.1" rain event so far. BUT...the GFS model is showing heavy rain Saturday the 27th, making the forecast even more difficult as most models don't agree with that. Either way it looks like we will see some form of soggy weather for the second half of next week, but with models so far apart right now I'll need a few more days to see how they converge.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM (Thursday the 18th) were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores are expected to run 10-15 mph.
Friday the 19th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Saturday the 20th should see AM light and variables with a slight offshore element, and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Sunday the 21st looks similar.
Monday the 22nd will likely see AM light and variables with an onshore element, and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
