SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 3/29/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 29th) we have a light mix of SW and NW swells in SoCal. Small surf is on tap until later in the week Although minor NW wind swell is due late this week, cleaner southern hemi swell builds this coming weekend. A series of light to moderate southern hemi swells are being watched for late next week. NW wind swell is being watched for the weekend of the 11th. Condition-wise: onshore flow with light rain chances this week; weekend looks quite nice so far; winds problematic at times; tide levels are swinging wider; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 13 seconds from 205° and 11 seconds from 310°.
Most south facing spots were running waist to at times chest high. West facing breaks were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.7-2.2'.
Tide levels are swinging wider as we approach a Full Moon Wednesday the 1st. Today we have a 5.5' high around 7:30 AM, a -0.6' low around 2:30 PM, and a 4.5' high around 8:30 PM.
Water temps were running 63-66° around most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 61-64°, although Hermosa reported warmer at 67°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 61° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 65° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 29th) through Wednesday the 1st are small days in the SoCal surf zone as recent southern hemisphere ground swell fades, NW wind swell remains minimal, and only light pulses of NW ground swell come ashore. Overall, Monday the 30th through Wednesday the 31st look about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Thursday the 2nd (building day) into Friday the 3rd will likely see NW wind swell as this minor trough of low pressure pushes toward SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That has a chance of light rain with it (see Weather section below). As for wind swell, that would build in the afternoon Thursday the 2nd, peaking Friday the 3rd at chest max at west facing breaks. Swell would be angled from the wind-swell-usual 300°+ with periods 7-10 seconds. Wind swell should back off when a cleaner southern hemi builds this weekend.
Saturday the 4th (building day) into Sunday the 5th (peak) should see southerly ground swell from this activity that recently broke off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That was a tad east of the SoCal longitude, coming in from a SSE angle; however, the course was ideal with plenty of northward momentum. This should initially bring waist to chest high sets to south facing breaks Saturday the 4th as this swell fills in; chest+ Sunday the 5th; chest high Monday the 6th; waist to at times chest high Tuesday the 7th; and then waist high Wednesday the 8th. Swell should be angled from 175-180° with periods 16 seconds.
Thursday the 9th, Friday the 10th, and the weekend of the 11th we're looking at a series of light to moderate southern hemi ground swells, including this one that should peak near New Zealand in a couple days (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
A smaller system preceding that today should produce initially waist high waves at south facing breaks Thursday the 9th, angled from 225° with periods 15 seconds. Friday the 10th should then see swell from the system on that model above with waist high waves at south facing spots from 210° with periods 16 seconds. That swell should peak at waist to chest at south facing breaks Saturday the 11th. This is on the short range so confidence is high, but we may see additional swell from this system near Pitcairn on the 6-day outlook (model by NOAA MAG):
That's slightly east of the SoCal longitude, but with 35' seas it'd produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks Saturday the 11th, angled from 175° with periods 18 seconds. This one's too early to call right now though.
Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th might also see NW wind swell in the mix; that is, if one trusts the extended long range models showing this robust trough of low pressure taking a swipe at SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That could also bring rain. Wind swell could run chest to head high at west facing breaks, but it's far too early to call. This needs a lot more monitoring but as long as I have your support, then I can continue to watch the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 30th looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 31st looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Wednesday the 1st looks about knee to waist at most breaks.
Thursday the 2nd, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks, smaller at south facing spots.
Friday the 3rd looks about chest max at west facing breaks, waist max at south facing spots.
Saturday the 4th looks about waist to chest max at south facing spots and waist max at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 5th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Monday the 6th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 7th, so far, looks about waist to chest max at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 8th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Thursday the 9th, so far, looks about waist max everywhere.
Friday the 10th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks, but NW wind swell needs more monitoring.
Saturday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at most breaks, but NW wind swell needs more monitoring.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 29th) high pressure is breaking down over the region, leading to strengthening of the onshore flow this week. A decent thermal inversion from recent inland heating remains in place, helping to thicken up the morning marine layer. The inversion should weaken Tuesday the 31st, but when it does, skies will no doubt cloud-up as the jetstream (green) pushes a trough (arrow) toward SoCal, leading to precip chances in SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That's a weak and wimpy trough but it could bring light rain Tuesday afternoon or evening. The GFS model keeps rain isolated to SB; the NAM keeps rain inland; the ECMWF shows rain in all five coastal counties; and the CMC shows sprinkles across all of SoCal. At this point, I'd call for a 50% chance of light rain in SB Tuesday night; VC 30% chance; LA 20% chance; and OC and SD 10% chance. Rain amounts look minimal.
Once that trough passes to the east Wednesday the 1st, NW winds should increase in the afternoon, staying onshore Thursday the 2nd for most of the day, and strong at times (see Wind section below).
Friday the 3rd looks like a transition day as high pressure starts to build over the American West. By Saturday the 4th skies should be clear with warmer air temps and a mild offshore flow, making for a rather pleasant weekend for the 4th-5th. That high is expected to weaken during the first part of next week (Starting Monday the 6th).
The next noteworthy weather feature is this potentially rainy and windy trough of low pressure by the weekend of the 11th (model by NOAA MAG):
That's a 300-hour-plus model, putting it in crystal-ball territory, worthy of a yellow pin in the charts this morning.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 29th) should see marine layer dissipate later this morning with beach max temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Monday the 30th should see some AM marine layer until midmorning, but with a good deal of upper-level clouds throughout the day. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday the 31st looks very cloudy all day. Rain is possible either late afternoon or in the evening. Chances are about 50% in SB; VC 30% chance; LA 20% chance; and OC and SD 10% chance. Rain amounts would top out a 0.1" (at most).
Wednesday the 1st should see rain clear before dawn. Skies will likely be cloudy in the early AM but then break up later in the morning to partly-cloudy. Max beach temps should reach the mid 60s.
Thursday the 2nd should see AM marine layer with a late burn-off, along with scattered high clouds. Beach max temps should reach the mid 60s.
Friday the 3rd will likely see a thin AM marine layer with an early burn-off, along with scattered off-and-on high clouds. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.
Saturday the 4th, so far, looks clear with beach max temps around 70°.
Sunday the 5th, so far, looks clear with beach max temps around 70°.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight onshore element. Afternoon onshores should reach 10-15 mph.
Monday the 30th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph, with a southerly element.
Tuesday the 31st should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph, with a southerly element.
Wednesday the 1st will likely see early AM onshores 5-10 mph and early afternoon onshores to 15 mph, increasing to near 20 mph mid to late afternoon.
Thursday the 2nd, so far, is expected to see early AM onshores 5-10 mph and early afternoon onshores to 15 mph; however, winds from LA north look about 20 by early afternoon. By mid afternoon, winds could reach 20 mph south of LA and over 25 mph from LA north.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
