SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 3/22/26 7:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 22nd) we have a light mix of SW ground swell and NW wind swell in SoCal. Smaller swell is on tap for a couple days before an increase in NW wind swell Thursday the 26th. A much more robust round of NW wind swell is being watched for the middle of next week. And a couple of moderately sized southern hemisphere ground swells are being watched for the 6th and 9th. Condition-wise: fair weather for a while but April showers are becoming likely; winds stay moderate; tide levels have evened out; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 190° and 9 seconds from 300-320°.
Most breaks were running waist high with chest high pluses at standouts.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-10'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.2'.
Tide levels aren't fluctuating much right now for daytime sessions. Today we have a -0.5' low around 6:30 AM, a 3.5' high around 1:00 PM, a 1.5' low around 6:00 PM, but then a 6' high around midnight.
Water temps have been holding steady with no sign of upwelling from the recent outer water winds. There is a chance of upwelling later in the week from another round of outer water winds then. Yesterday, most of SD was running 62-65°. OC was varied with Huntington Beach 60°, Newport 63°, and San Clemente Pier 66°. LA was mostly 62-65°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° this morning. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 60° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 22nd) the recent round of NW wind swell has peaked, but downgraded slightly from earlier model runs, keeping winds a bit farther north off the coast. Minor southern hemisphere ground swell lingers today, but that's on the way out too. Both swells should drop to about waist max Monday the 23rd.
Tuesday the 24th doesn't look much better, although there'll be a couple minor NW swells in the waist high range for west facing breaks, and a New Zealand swell about waist high for south facing spots. West facing breaks may see some occasional chest high pluses, but those would be rare. Smaller surf is expected Wednesday the 25th.
Thursday the 26th remains on track for sizable NW wind swell as this area of surface high pressure off the PNW interacts with much lower pressure east of SoCal (model by UQAM):
The red areas on that wind model represent 40+ mph gusts in the outer waters west of Pt. Conception, which would be enough to whip up 12-15' seas near the Harvest buoy. This would result in easily chest high wind swell at west facing breaks Thursday the 26th, with some sets upwards of head high. This would be angled from the wind-swell-usual 300°+ with periods 8-11 seconds. Models have been consistent with this since last week so confidence is high. I'll be able to call it with much higher certainty in my next report (Tuesday).
Friday the 27th (late) into Saturday the 28th should see minor southern hemi ground swell from this system that formed near French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Some wind swell may linger Friday the 27th, but it should be greatly degraded Saturday the 28th when this small southern hemi peaks at waist high at south facing breaks. Swell should be angled from 200° with periods 15 seconds. So all told, taking the wind swell into account, Friday the 27th should run waist to chest at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots, and then Saturday the 28th should run waist high everywhere.
Sunday the 29th through Tuesday the 31st look like small surf days. Some minor WestPac and southern hemi pulses should come ashore, but most spots are looking at knee to waist high waves.
Wednesday the 1st into Thursday the 2nd could see sizable NW wind swell from this stormy, low pressure trough that might trash conditions while possibly bringing rain to SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
As for swell, that could produce head high+ wind swell waves at west facing breaks, but conditions would be diametric to size: the bigger the waves, the stronger the winds and thus worse the conditions. This is on the 8-day-plus models so I'll need more time to see how models deal with this.
Sunday the 5th (building day) into Monday the 6th could see southerly ground swell from this system breaking off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models have stayed the course since last week, so this continues to look like a chest high swell for SoCal's south facing breaks, angled from 180-185° with periods 17 seconds. This swell would likely linger Tuesday the 7th before another southern hemi comes ashore.
Wednesday the 8th could see another round of southerly ground swell, but this time from a system traveling on a better course to direct swell to SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Based on the 8-day models, that would produce chest to at times head high sets at south facing breaks Wednesday the 8th, angled from 185° with periods 16 seconds. This needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support, then I can continue to watch the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 23rd looks about waist max at most breaks.
Tuesday the 24th should run waist high at most breaks with occasional chest high pluses at standout west facing spots.
Wednesday the 25th should run waist high at most breaks.
Thursday the 26th is expected to run chest to at times head high at west facing breaks from wind swell. However, this needs more monitoring over the next 24-48 hours.
Friday the 27th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 28th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Sunday the 29th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Monday the 30th, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 31st, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Wednesday the 1st, so far, is expected to see NW wind swell build during the day.
Thursday the 2nd, so far, looks about head high+ at west facing breaks from wind swell.
Friday the 3rd, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks from wind swell.
Saturday the 4th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Sunday the 5th, so far, is looking at southern hemi swell building into south facing breaks at waist to chest high.
Monday the 6th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 7th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 8th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 22nd) high pressure tied to last week's heatwave has weakened and moved to the southeast, allowing for a weak onshore flow into SoCal. Moderate high pressure builds this week over our area, but nothing major. The thermal inversion (marine layer's thickening agent) is weak but ever-present for early AM low clouds and fog at the coast. However, from Tuesday the 24th through Friday the 27th we should see a moderate northerly gradient, which could be enough to eliminate or greatly reduce morning marine layer for the second half of the week.
Saturday the 28th will very likely see high pressure weaken as this trough of low pressure starts to bear down on SoCal, shown here at its peak over SoCal Wednesday the 1st (model by NOAA MAG):
Being a "traditional" trough, not a cut-off low, this has fairly predictable jetstream guidance (green). This has stayed fairly consistent with the ensemble model runs late last week, which, being that far out, were in crystal ball territory. Now though we're in the range of the deterministic models when probabilities become higher. As it stands right now, there is a decent chance for rain Wednesday the 1st. Cooler temps with thicker AM marine layer could precede that starting this coming weekend.
Looking further out on the long range, the extended long range models show a rain chance for the 7th, but that would be from a cut-off low, making it highly questionable right now.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 22nd) should see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off followed by high clouds, and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Monday the 23rd should see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off, and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Tuesday the 24th should see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday the 25th should see AM marine layer, midmorning burn-off, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday the 26th should see very little AM marine layer with a quick burn-off, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Friday the 27th should see AM marine layer with an early AM burn-off followed by high clouds, and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Saturday the 28th, so far, is looking at skies clouding up with scattered high clouds after the morning marine layer burns off. Max beach temps will likely top out in the upper 60s to around 70°.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere along the SoCal coast. Afternoon onshores should reach 10 mph.
Monday the 23rd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 10 mph
Tuesday the 24th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 10 mph
Wednesday the 25th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 10 mph
Thursday the 26th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 10 mph
Friday the 27th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 10 mph
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
