SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 6/7/26 6:25 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 7th) we have a fair amount of southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal along with lesser NW wind swell. A significantly sized southern hemisphere ground swell is due Tuesday the 9th. Moderate southern hemi swell is due during the weekend of the 13th-14th. A good sized SW ground swell is being watched for Tuesday the 16th. Moderate southern hemis are being monitored for the 21st-22nd. Condition-wise: fair weather with varying degrees of marine layer this week; winds stay moderate for the most part; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15-17 seconds from 185-210° and 10 seconds from 315°.
Most south facing spots were running chest to at times head high. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist to chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 10'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.8' (south facing) to 3.3' (west facing).
Tide levels are moderate. Today we have a 0.5' low around 9:30 AM, a 4' high around 4:30 PM, and a 2.5' low around 10:00 PM.
Water temps were averaging 65° around most of SD and OC, although Huntington Beach reported 61° yesterday. In LA, many spots were running 65-67°, although the usually-cooler Zuma reported 62°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 61° last night. In SB, the USCG and Stearns Wharf readings aren't current, but the channel reported 60° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 7th) SW ground swell is fading from the New Zealand system that formed almost two weeks ago. Wind swell is also in the mix, kicked up by the seasonal springtime pattern. Wind swell will linger in the chest max range at west facing breaks through Wednesday the 10th as winds continue in the outer waters, pushing seas into the 12' range west of the Channel Islands. Most of that will skirt past SoCal, with only a small fraction making it to west facing beaches over the next few days. The more salient swell this week will hit SoCal shortly.
Monday the 8th (late, with forerunners throughout the day) into Tuesday the 9th (peak) should see significantly sized southern hemisphere ground swell from this impressive system that peaked almost a week ago after traveling northward off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Seas were robust at 45', which from that distance and course works out to sets running 2-3' overhead at south facing breaks Tuesday the 9th and Wednesday the 10th, angled from 190-195° with periods 20 seconds. That angle also puts swell just within the window to create pluses at spots working refraction through the San Diego Trough (page 111). So there is a chance that some standouts, mostly south of LA, could see bigger set waves at times. After peaking Tuesday the 9th and Wednesday the 10th, this swell should back down to about head high Thursday the 11th, and then chest+ Friday the 12th.
Saturday the 13th (building quickly) into Sunday the 14th (peak) should see moderate SW ground swell from this system that recently broke off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30' seas on that trajectory, size works out to chest+ by Sunday the 14th, with swell angled from 190° and periods 16-17 seconds. This swell should continue Monday the 15th at chest high at south facing spots.
BTW: I removed the tropical swell potential for the 13th-14th. There is plenty of action off Mexico, but none of that is expected to drift northwest to our swell window. Potential is high for hurricane formation, and waters are abnormally warm in our tropical swell window. But there doesn't appear to be enough guidance — often from clockwise spinning high pressure over Texas — to swirl these storms into a surf-worthy position for SoCal. I'll still keep a close watch, but there are more significant swells headed our way.
Tuesday the 16th should see fairly sizable SW ground swell in SoCal from this system that should peak over the next 24-36 hours near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Most models like the idea of this system pumping up 50' seas when located south of New Zealand, and then 40' when it takes a northward turn. Some of that system's energy would be soaked up by South Pacific islands like the Cooks, but the biggest initial loss would be from its angular spread (page 52) as its initial easterly course sends us a fraction of swell. That initial course works out to head high sets at SoCal's south facing breaks, which should arrive early in the morning Tuesday the 16th. The northward turn should then result in sets upwards of 2' overhead at south facing breaks sometime later in the day Tuesday the 16th, peaking Wednesday the 17th. Almost all models agree with this (NFCENS, ECMWF, and GFS); however, the nearshore GFS-DATA, which is used to create the automated surf charts here on WaveCast and other websites, comes in much lower at chest max, but I'm not buying that. After mulling over this system, running calculations again and again on three different models, I'm confident in the head high initial arrival Tuesday the 16th, building during the day with a 2' overhead peak Wednesday the 17th. The distance of 7,000 miles from SoCal means sets would be inconsistent, with deceivingly long lulls at times between sets that could house bigger, surprise outsiders. This one does have another 24-36 hours to go, but for now, that's how I'm calling it.
Thursday the 18th would likely see swell weaken to head high with pluses at south facing breaks, dropping to chest high with pluses Friday the 19th, smaller Saturday the 20th.
Sunday the 21st (building day?) into Monday the 22nd could see swell, from a couple southern hemi storms. The more notable system is this one, shown skirting the ice pack on the 7-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that works out to chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 200° with periods 21 seconds. This and other potential swells on the extended long range need more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific and keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 8th is expected to run chest high at south facing spots for the dawn patrols, but with forerunners throughout the day and an increase by the evening. West facing breaks should run chest max.
Tuesday the 9th is expected to run 2-3' overhead at many south facing spots.
Wednesday the 10th looks about 2-3' overhead at south facing spots.
Thursday the 11th looks about head high at south facing spots with some pluses possible in the morning.
Friday the 12th looks about chest high at south facing breaks with some pluses near head high at standouts.
Saturday the 13th is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 14th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks.
Monday the 15th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 16th, so far, is expected to run head high at south facing spots, although sets may be inconsistent.
Wednesday the 17th, so far, is expected to run head high to 2' overhead at south facing spots.
Thursday the 18th, so far, looks about head high at south facing spots.
Friday the 19th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 7th) a low pressure trough is sagging into SoCal, which should start to lift northward Monday. Weak high pressure builds into SoCal Tuesday the 9th, becoming stronger during the second half of the week. This should create a slow, progressive warm-up as we get into the second half of the week, more so by the weekend (13th-14th). High pressure would then slowly break down Monday the 15th through Wednesday the 17th.
Even though we have a trough over SoCal today along with a moderate thermal inversion (page 131), northerly winds over the next couple days should help mix out the marine layer fairly early at the coast. In fact, sundowner winds are expected to reach 30-40 mph through the Gaviota Pass Monday night and Tuesday night. Along the SoCal coast from SB proper through SD, winds will be much weaker and hardly noticeable. But the winds in the outer waters and areas near Pt. Conception should inhibit marine layer formation over the next few days.
Marine layer is expected to remain moderate during the second half of the week when high pressure builds over the region. A weak offshore flow (mostly from the north) is likely then. However, some models show the thermal inversion reaching Δ15-20°C warmer a mile up, which could thicken up the marine layer quite a bit. This depends on how hot inland areas like Palm Springs get, which right now is forecast to reach 105° during the second half of the week. While being a main driver for the coastal inversion (illustration on page 132) there could be cooler than normal air over the ocean as winds over the next few days could influence cold-water upwelling (page 148), at least in the outer waters.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 7th) should see AM marine layer, burnoff by noon with max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday the 8th should see AM marine layer dissipate late morning, followed by high clouds at times, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday the 9th is looking at an early burn-off with marine layer dissipating by mid morning. Max beach temps should run in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Wednesday the 10th is looking at AM marine layer and a midmorning burn-off, but with pockets of marine layer at times along parts of the coast into the afternoon. Beach max temps should reach the low 70s
Thursday the 11th should see AM marine layer and a mid to late morning burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Friday the 12th should see AM marine layer and a mid to late morning burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a WSW element. Afternoon onshores should reach 15 mph.
Monday the 8th should see AM light and variables with a slight southerly element, and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Tuesday the 9th should see AM light and variables with a slight southerly element, and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 10th should see AM light and variables with a slight offshore element, and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 11th should see AM light and variables with a slight offshore element, and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
