SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 6/30/26 6:40 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 30th) we have a light mix of SW ground swell and NW wind swell in SoCal. Southern hemi swell picks up tomorrow. Tropical swell is being watched for Sunday the 5th. Moderately sized southern hemi is due by the middle of next week, which should last for a few days. Condition-wise: marine layer pattern remains in place along the coast; winds trend onshore; tide levels are swinging wider; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 185° and 11 seconds from 315°. However 18- to 20-second forerunners were showing up at times, signaling the next southern hemi swell (page 43).
Most breaks were running waist to at times chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were running 2' (south facing) to 2.8' (west facing).
Tide levels are swinging wide from Monday's Full Moon. Today we have a -0.7' low around 5:00 AM, a 3.5' high around 11:30 AM, a 2.5' low around 4:00 PM, and a 6' high around 10:00 PM.
Water temps were running 67-69° around most of SD and OC. LA was also about 67-69° although the usually-cooler Zuma reported 63° yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° last night. In SB, recent USCG and Stearns Wharf readings were unavailable but the SB Channel reported 62° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 30th) is starting off as a fairly small day for surf in SoCal but southern hemisphere ground swell is slowly filling in, peaking Wednesday the 1st from these two storms that formed last week (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
As you may recall from earlier reports, their arrival times are the same since storm #1, although being farther away, had longer periods than storm #2 (page 41). All told, south facing breaks should see chest high sets Wednesday the 1st with swell angled from 190-210° and periods 17-18 seconds. But with neither storm taking a northerly course while staying in low latitudes, there will likely be fewer than normal waves per set and longer than normal lulls between sets.
Thursday the 2nd (building day) into Friday the 3rd should see light to moderate SW ground swell from this system that was hugging the ice pack about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This should produce chest max sets at south facing breaks by Friday the 3rd, angled from 200° with periods 18 seconds. This swell should continue Saturday the 4th with chest high sets at south facing spots. A lower latitude storm that formed behind it should keep waist to at times chest high waves going at south facing breaks Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th.
Sunday the 5th, along with the southern hemisphere ground swell, we may see southerly swell from this tropical system that could peak in a couple days (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a great course and position but with just 12' seas we're looking at waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 10 seconds. Southern hemisphere ground swell should be equal to or slightly bigger than that, so it may just present as added, shorter-period waves in the mix. If the storm gains more strength though then we could see something bigger out of it. I'll be able to confirm that in my Thursday report.
Tuesday the 7th (building quickly) into Wednesday the 8th should see SW ground swell from this system that peaked a couple days ago near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This had moderate loss from its angular spread (page 52), so calculations point to chest+ swell at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. Standouts may see some head high pluses out of this Wednesday the 8th and Thursday the 9th. In fact, Thursday the 9th should see an additional southern hemisphere swell in the mix from other activity that formed to the east of that storm, which could create pluses from constructive interference (page 84), making Thursday the 9th the day most likely to see occasional head high pluses at south facing spots. This swell should then run about chest high Friday the 10th; chest high Saturday the 11th; waist to chest Sunday the 12th; and waist high Monday the 13th.
Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th look like very small days in the SoCal surf zone so far. However, the southern hemi window averages 9 days, which puts confirmation on that early next week. If something pops up on the models between then and now then that will change the mid-month forecast. Same goes for our tropical and NW wind swell windows, which average 2 days.
Thursday the 16th continues to have some rays of surfable hope as they show this storm trekking northeastward in the Tasman Sea (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a good 7,400 miles from SoCal, and during the swell's 11-day trip to SoCal a good deal of energy is lost. A good amount of energy also gets soaked up by numerous islands in the South Pacific from these Tasman swells, but they do angle swell from a wider SW angle of 230°. Running the numbers on the 5-day models comes in at waist high at south facing breaks, possibly chest high on the wave-of-the-day at standouts. Periods would run 16 seconds.
Yet not all hope is lost for the second half of the month as the ensembles show a nursery of tropical storm genesis on the extended outlook. In fact here are two storms on the 2-week outlook that could affect SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
The topmost storm (green arrow) is one that would travel north from the tropics and bring some high clouds and humidity into SoCal in a couple weeks. While no swell would likely come from that storm, the other area of low pressure to the south (red arrow) could gain enough strength to become surf worthy with swell into SoCal by the 17th. I wouldn't count on either storm right now, but it is an example of how active the tropical region is becoming on the models. This all needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 1st should run chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 2nd looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Friday the 3rd looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing spots.
Saturday the 4th looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 5th looks about waist high at south facing breaks with occasional chest high pluses. West facing breaks should run waist high.
Monday the 6th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 7th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 8th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots.
Thursday the 9th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks. Head high pluses are likely at standouts.
Friday the 10th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 12th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Monday the 13th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 14th, so far, looks about knee to waist at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 15th, so far, looks about knee to waist at south facing spots.
Thursday the 16th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 30th) the weather forecast for SoCal beaches will be dominated by marine layer to varying degrees by differing elements over the next week. Right now, a trough of low pressure diving south into SoCal has increased the onshore flow, but NW winds kicked up by that trough have spun up a coastal eddy (page 135). The eddy is evident by light SW winds along the coast, more so though in the outer waters with NW winds to 20 mph in the outer waters off SB with southerly winds to 10 mph around LA — a textbook eddy spinning up marine moisture. Most deterministic models show an early burn-off north of LA from the winds disrupting marine layer development, but the statistical models (and the current observations) say otherwise, showing the eddy keeping marine layer in place for a good part of the day today.
Outer water winds should weaken Wednesday the 1st so the eddy may be weaker too. The bigger change comes Thursday the 2nd as the eddy is less likely (or very weak). But then the marine layer game becomes zero-sum Saturday the 4th as the thermal inversion (page 131) ticks up to Δ10°F aloft in response to high pressure building over the region, centered over the 4-Corners. That high will gain strength early next week. As it does, it will heat up inland areas, which should, in turn, strengthen the inversion to Δ15°F Monday the 6th, and around Δ18°F Wednesday the 8th. This should keep at least morning marine layer in place with beach temps regulated as inland areas see notable warming.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 30th) has a stubborn marine layer that could be tough to dissipate and may hang around for a good part of the day at many beaches. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.
Wednesday the 1st should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by noon or early afternoon and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Thursday the 2nd should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by mid to late morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Friday the 3rd should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by mid to late morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 4th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by mid to late morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Sunday the 5th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were lightly onshore in most spots 3-8 mph with a WSW element. Onshores should reach 15 mph this afternoon.
Wednesday the 1st should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Thursday the 2nd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph, possibly up to 20 mph by mid to late afternoon.
Friday the 3rd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph, possibly up to 20 mph by mid to late afternoon.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
