SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Thursday 10/15/26 5:50 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 15th) we have a fair amount of NW and SW ground swells in SoCal. Another round of southern hemi swell is due this weekend with a boost early next week. Swell from Typhoon Koguma is due Monday the 19th. NW ground swell is becoming likely for Wednesday the 21st. Lighter swells are being watched for late next week. And moderate SW ground swell is being monitored for the 29th-30th. Condition-wise: widespread Santa Ana gets underway today, peaking Friday, affecting more areas than normal; rain is in the forecast; tide levels are receding but remain above normal; water temps are on the warm side; and advisories are in effect.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 195° and 14 seconds from 290°.

Most breaks were running chest high with occasional head high pluses at standouts.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.0' (south facing) to 2.6' (west facing).

Tidal Advisory: Tide levels are running about 10-12" above normal today as the Marine Heat Wave continues off Baja and SoCal. This is down a couple inches from the past few days. Note that we're entering a tidal amplification phase from an 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle, which is creating wide tidal swings with higher than normal tides. While the tide tables account for the lunar nodal cycle, they don't account for the above normal water levels due to thermal expansion from El Niño and the Marine Heat Wave off SoCal; thus, the actual tide levels need another 12" added to them to represent more accurate levels.

Water temps were running 70-73° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 70° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 69° this morning.

Hazard Warnings: A number of warnings and advisories are in effect, including those for mariners, related to the Santa Ana getting underway today, peaking Friday the 16th. Mariners will be dealing with strong gales focused on the waters off VC and parts of LA (see Weather section below). The NWS has issued a number of warnings as well for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 15th) we're seeing the tail end of NW ground swell from Choi-Wan, and we're on the last leg of the southern hemisphere ground swell from this storm that traveled north off Antarctica almost two weeks ago, peaking in SoCal yesterday (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Both swells should fade to chest max Friday the 16th. The NW swell will fade further this weekend, but more southern hemi will come ashore.

Saturday the 17th (building day) into Sunday the 18th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system that broke off Antarctica about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

With 30-35' seas on that course, south facing breaks should see initially chest high sets with pluses Saturday the 17th, and then chest to at times head high Sunday the 18th. Swell should be angled from 200° and periods 17 seconds. Although this particular swell should peak Sunday the 18th, other swells will come ashore shortly after.

Monday the 19th (building day) into Tuesday the 20th (peak), should see SW ground swell from this system that broke off Antarctica a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks by Tuesday the 20th with head high pluses at standouts. Swell should be angled from 190° and periods 16 seconds.

Monday the 19th, along with southern hemi ground swell, we should also see NW ground swell from Typhoon Koguma, which took this northerly course with decent sized seas (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Similar to Choi-Wan, sets should be sporadic from Koguma's distance and course. Size should run chest+ at west facing breaks Monday the 19th, angled from 300° and periods 16 seconds. South facing breaks should see at least that size from the southern hemi swells (chest to head high at south facing spots).

BTW: NW wind swell that was forecast for early next week has been dropped as models downgraded winds around that time.

Wednesday the 21st could see NW ground swell from this new feature on the models this morning (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Being close to the coast signals stormy weather, which is indeed the case early next week — something I'll talk about in the Weather section below. As for swell, that 4-day model shows 27' seas 900 nautical miles from SoCal, which works out to chest to head high sets at west facing breaks, angled from 310° and periods 15 seconds. Its proximity puts it in a 2-day swell window, and I'll confirm it in my next report (Sunday). Models are in agreement across the board though, so confidence is high. This swell would likely linger to a somewhat lesser degree Thursday the 22nd.

Friday the 23rd, as that close-proximity swell fades, we could see similarly sized, yet longer-period NW ground swell from this system hugging the Alaskan Peninsula (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

All told, west facing breaks are looking at waist to chest high sets Friday the 23rd and Saturday the 24th, with that Alaskan swell putting 16-second periods into the mix from a steep 320°.

Friday the 23rd should also see light southern hemisphere ground swell in the mix from this low latitude system (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

We'll get a mere glancing blow with waist high waves at south facing breaks, and chest high pluses at times at standouts. Swell should be angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds.

The next swell on my charts is being watched for Thursday the 29th into Friday the 30th from this activity breaking off Antarctica near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That holds potential for chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 16 seconds. It's on the 6-day outlook so it needs more monitoring.

Looking toward the tropics, two systems are brewing but neither is poised to bring swell to SoCal (image from NOAA GOES):

While Simon should cross into our swell window it should weaken quite a bit before then. Trudy should become a strong hurricane, but it's expected to hug the coast of Mexico, staying far outside of the SoCal swell window.

And last up before getting to the weather and winds: In case you missed it from my last report, models this week show El Niño has warmed slightly to about 2.4°C, which is now tied with the 1997-98 El Niño. However, some models also show El Niño may be reaching its peak (model from NOAA CPC)

The more immediate concern continues to be the Marine Heat Wave (MHW) sitting off Baja and SoCal, which is largely responsible for the higher than normal sea levels in SoCal (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

That marine heat wave, which started to develop in 2025, warmed quite a bit this summer as high pressure cooked SoCal with numerous heatwaves, while northerly winds were lacking to create any cold-water upwelling. As with every El Niño, the Kelvin Waves in this year's El Niño added to this warmth; although, those are getting the spotlight in the press even though they're only part of the story (more on that here).

Sea levels are running about 12" above normal from the Marine Heat Wave, down a couple inches from earlier this week. But what's making the sea-level rise more noticeable are higher than normal tides caused by an 18.6-year nodal lunar cycle. This lunar cycle will create higher than normal king tides for a few years, starting now. In fact, this will be quite noticeable this winter when king tides reach upwards of 7.5' around the Christmas holiday. That's the "predicted" height in the tide tables. Add another foot on top of that from sea-level rise and we have an 8.5' high tide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. If a storm and/or swell comes ashore then, there would be potential for storm surge adding another foot for high tide levels nearing 10', which would inevitably cause coastal flooding and further beach erosion.

The Marine Heat Wave will cool (to some degree) from seasonally cooler water this winter. If El Niño also cools as models show this week, then we may see some relief from coastal flooding as sea levels recede. Yet it takes a long time for ocean waters to cool, so we should count on coastal flooding events now through the winter (and possibly beyond).

As for swells and rain, El Niño has a 71% batting average over the past 100 years of intensifying both for the winter season. We have seen disappointing El Niño winters, but those are in the minority. High rain amounts and heavy surf are more likely. Preparations should be taken now in advance of this higher probability.

The Pacific is quite active with a lot to watch right now. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to monitor the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Friday the 16th looks chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Saturday the 17th should start at chest high at south facing breaks with swell building later in the way.

Sunday the 18th looks about chest to head high at south facing spots, smaller at west facing breaks.

Monday the 19th looks about chest+ at most breaks.

Tuesday the 20th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks and chest high at west facing spots.

Wednesday the 21st, so far, looks about chest to head high at most breaks.

Thursday the 22nd, so far, looks about chest high at most breaks with occasional pulses at standouts.

Friday the 23rd, so far, looks about waist to chest at most spots.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 15th) a strong, widespread, yet short-lived Santa Ana is winding up today as this pattern sets up over SoCal, peaking tomorrow (model by NOAA MAG):

While the high pressure ridge (blue circle) becomes established at the upper levels of the atmosphere Friday the 16th, the low that recently passed through SoCal is retrograding back to SoCal, pointed to by that red arrow. Winds blowing from high- to low-pressure are starting to create an offshore flow from this pattern; however, that's just the upper levels of the atmosphere.

At the surface, a robust offshore flow is also expected as a strong high with freezing air (white arrow, H1050) builds over Colorado and Wyoming, which will interact with relatively lower pressure off the coast (model by UQAM):

SoCal (white box) will sit between these two pressure systems — smackdab in the path of wind passing between them. This is not your traditional Santa Ana (page 116) where the inland high would be in the Great Basin, oftentimes Idaho and Utah. With the high being more to the southeast, coupled with the pattern at the upper levels, more areas of SoCal should see Santa Ana winds than usual. However, only the CMC model today shows that high reaching 1050 hPa; the more accurate rapid refresh models (for short term forecasting) show the high maxing out at 1043. As for the actual surface gradient measurements, the GFS keeps this right below -6 mb for a moderate+ event, while the bullish NAM calls for very strong -7.5 mb. That's for the LAX-DAG gradient (page 129), which is only part of the story, taking into account the easterly portion of the winds. A northerly gradient can add to the strength, which is somewhat lacking right now.

For instance, the Santa Ana associated with the Palisades Fire had a -7.2mb easterly gradient (LAX-DAG), which is around the same max strength forecast for Friday the 16th. However, the northerly gradient (LAX-SFO) was a powerful -8.2.mb for the Palisades event. That northerly gradient should stay below -5mb this time around. By the way, I have illustrations showing this and the Palisades Fire wind model in Wave by Wave (see page 119).

Looking at the max wind models, here's how the rapid refresh is calling it this morning with peak winds midmorning Friday the 16th (model by NOAA MAG):

Around much of the VC coast stretching south to Point Dume are wind gusts in the 20-30 kt range (23-35 mph). A few dark splotches indicate gusts to 40 kt (46 mph). But most of that area along the coast, as well as the inner and outer waters, should see wind gusts up to 35 mph (20-30 kt). Working our way south, much of LA should see 10-20 kt gusts, but then parts of OC and SD could see 20-30 kt gusts.

The Santa Ana should lose half its strength Saturday the 17th and weaken to near neutral Sunday the 18th. The weather pattern should then shift dramatically as this trough of low pressure dives south into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):

Temps should cool from a robust onshore flow and precip chances are in the forecast for Tuesday the 20th. Another trough is showing up on the longer range for the end of next week with precip chances around Sunday the 25th or Monday the 26th. I'll have more on this in my next report.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Thursday the 15th) will have clear skies with max beach temps in the low 80s. Santa Ana winds should increase today. (see Wind section below).

Friday the 16th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the upper 80s. Strong Santa Anas are expected.

Saturday the 17th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the low to mid 80s.

Sunday the 18th should see clear skies with max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday the 19th will likely have a thin marine layer with a quick burn-off and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.

Tuesday the 20th could see rain. I'll have more on that in my next report.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 8:00 AM were lightly offshore 5-10 mph most everywhere along the coast, although the Santa Ana wind-prone Leo Carillo reported gusts to 25 mph from the NE. NW winds should increase mid to late morning around VC to 15 mph (with occasionally stronger gusts) but stay lighter elsewhere with offshores 10 mph in most spots for a good part of the day.

Friday the 16th should see NE winds 10-15 mph in the early morning in most spots. By midmorning, SB, VC, and parts of LA should see NE winds 20-25 mph with gusts over 30 mph. Winds could be stronger around Pt. Mugu, Leo Carillo, and other wind-prone spots. LA west of Pt. Dume should see offshores peak around 15 mph. OC should see winds peak in the 15-20 mph range. And parts of SD should expect offshore winds reaching 25 mph by mid to late morning with gusts over 30 mph. Winds should peak around noon and weaken slightly in the afternoon.

Saturday the 17th should see winds weaken with the most wind-prone spots (like VC) seeing offshores 15 mph in the early morning with occasionally stronger gusts. Parts of SD could see offshores 15-20 mph in the morning as well. Elsewhere, offshores should run 10-15 mph in the morning. Winds should weaken quite a bit for the afternoon everywhere.

Sunday the 18th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.

 

Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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