SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Thursday 7/9/26 6:40 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 9th) we have a good amount of southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal with lesser NW wind swell. Minor to moderate southern hemi ground swell is due by Monday the 13th. A minor Tasman swell is due Thursday the 16th. But the headline today is the potential for a major hurricane swell by Sunday the 19th. Another, potentially significantly sized hurricane swell is being watched for the 23rd. And there's an update today on El Niño. Condition-wise: marine layer temporarily disrupted in some spots at times; tropical cloud cover and high humidity due this weekend; winds stay mild; and water temps nearshore are unphased by outer-water upwelling.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15-17 seconds from 190-200° and 8 seconds from 305°.

Most south facing breaks were running chest to at times head high. Direct west facing breaks were mostly chest high with occasional pluses.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 10'. Nearshore buoys were mostly 2-3'.

Tide levels swing wider over the next few days as we approach a New Moon Tuesday the 14th. This will be a wider than normal swing with highs exceeding 7' and lows nearly -2' by early next week, which will also pose a risk for coastal flooding. Today we have a 2.8' high around 6:30 AM that will swing to a barely noticeable 2.2' low around 10:30 AM. The tide will then rise to a near 6' high around 5:30 PM.

Water temps were running 69-72° around most of SD. OC was mostly 66-68°, although Huntington Beach reported 63° yesterday. LA was mostly 67-71°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 67° last night. SB Harbor reported 66° last night. Note there has been a few degrees of upwelling in the outer waters from the wind-swell-making winds, but with winds diminishing later today and focused to the north (more on that in the Weather section), it's now unlikely that beach water temps will be affected.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 9th) we're seeing peak swell from this system you might recall from earlier reports that formed about two weeks ago near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

Swell from another system that formed to its east has arrived today, making today the day most likely to see head high pluses at south facing breaks from constructive interference (page 84). We also have NW wind swell in the mix from a tight gradient that formed between a surface high and low. All of these swells are at their peak today.

Friday the 10th should see southern hemi hover around chest high at south facing breaks while west facing breaks see waist to chest wind swell as that energy wanes. Saturday the 11th looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing spots.

Sunday the 12th into Monday the 13th should see light SW ground swell from this system that drifted north off Antarctica south of Pitcairn about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

With just 25' seas that should produce waist to at times chest high waves at south facing breaks Sunday the 12th and Monday the 13th, angled from 185° and periods 15-16 seconds.

Smaller surf is expected Tuesday the 14th, about waist max everywhere.

Wednesday the 15th may see a slight increase in NW wind swell as a low pressure system passes north of the PNW. We'd get the tail end of its wind swell, perhaps waist to at times chest high at west facing breaks. Being a close-proximity system it's a bit early to call that today.

Thursday the 16th should see spotty, intermittent SW ground swell from this storm you might recall from last week's reports that traveled northeast in the Tasman Sea (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

Being 7,400 miles from SoCal means a good deal of energy will be lost from distance decay, along with energy soaked up by numerous islands in the South Pacific on the swell's course to SoCal. This should result in waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks but with very long lulls between sets and very few waves per set. Long wait times should be expected. Swell should be angled from 230° with periods 15 seconds.

Friday the 17th looks like a small day for surf in SoCal, but not for long.

Saturday the 18th (building day) into Sunday the 19th (peak?) could see significantly sized hurricane swell in SoCal from that tropical system shown from earlier model runs. Not only have models stayed the course with this storm, they also upgraded it on the medium range models with impressive seas, course, and proximity to SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

The red center measures 38' seas starting 7/16, increasing slightly 7/18 when it gets very close to SoCal. Working the numbers off this morning's models works out to at least DOH sets at south facing breaks by Sunday the 19th, angled initially from 165° but then quickly shifting to 180° during the day Sunday the 19th. Top-end calculations show face heights reaching 14' at breaks that can work a SSE angle (165-175°). Periods would run around 18 seconds, but the system's proximity also means shorter periods will be in the mix (pages 160-161) and consistency would be very high. Strong swell running at least a couple feet overhead would be expected for Monday the 20th, and then chest to head high Tuesday the 21st. Although this is on the 7-day models today, models have been very consistent and aligned for a few days putting confidence in the likely category. I'll need more time though to see how this plays out.

Wednesday the 22nd into Thursday the 23rd could see light southern hemisphere ground swell from this oddly swirling system lacking jetstream guidance in the low latitudes (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

On its own, that'd produce just waist to at times chest high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 200° and periods 17 seconds. But something much bigger could be waiting in the wings.

Thursday the 23rd (building day?) into Friday the 24th (peak?) could see another hurricane swell from this system on the 300-hour models (model by NOAA MAG):

A very strong, 600dm high pressure system centered near the 4-Corners would provide that hurricane ideal northward guidance from the high's clockwise spin. Very early estimates point to surf running at least a couple feet overhead at south facing breaks as this smacks of the hurricane forecast to bring swell by the 19th. This one for the 23rd-24th is too far out to run any numbers yet, but all the elements are coming together, which brings me to the last item in the surf forecast before getting to the day-to-day, weather and winds.

There is an official update today by NOAA on the state of El Niño with an 81% chance for a "very strong" El Niño that could become one of the strongest on record (model from NOAA CPC)

The thick dashed line shows the model mean, topping out slightly above 2°C anomalous for the winter. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 was 2.4°C, which is where today's model spread tops out. As for chance, we're already well into El Niño, evident by the telltale tongue of warm water extending off Peru (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

Along with El Niño's warming waters we also have two Marine Heat Waves (MHWs) with one in our hurricane swell window, thus providing fuel and guidance for the hurricane swells in the forecast. Strong El Niños tend to lessen southern hemisphere ground swell formation as it can strengthen the jetstream close to the pole. However, it increases the chances for hurricane swells during our summer and early fall. After that, the potential for strong NW swells increases as we approach the winter. High rain amounts become likely then too (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud).

As we can see, the Pacific is becoming hyperactive with a lot to monitor in the coming days, weeks and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep this report alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Friday the 10th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest high west facing spots.

Saturday the 11th looks about chest high at south facing spots and waist high at west facing spots.

Sunday the 12th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.

Monday the 13th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks.

Tuesday the 14th looks about waist high at south facing spots.

Wednesday the 15th, so far, looks about waist high at most spots.

Thursday the 16th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots with rare chest high pluses.

Friday the 17th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots with rare chest high pluses.

Saturday the 18th, so far, is expected to see hurricane swell build during the day.

Sunday the 19th, so far, is being watched for potential DOH+ hurricane swell at south facing breaks.

Monday the 20th, so far, holds potential for sets running a couple feet overhead at south facing breaks, possibly bigger.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 9th) the marine layer is once again being disrupted north of LA but not farther south, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):

Even though the thermal inversion (page 131) is measuring a good Δ18°F this morning, which is thickening up marine layer from LA south, the clear patch off VC and SB is in large part due to strong outer water winds that were gusting to near 35 mph early this morning. Those winds are staying west of the islands and are much weaker south of the Channel Islands. With little to disrupt the marine layer in those calmer areas, combined with a hefty inversion, morning low clouds are present from LA south. But this pattern won't last long.

High pressure will weaken a bit Friday over the region and move to the southeast, which should transition to a more typical summertime pattern for marine layer with well timed burn-offs. But then Saturday the 11th sees tropical clouds and moisture travel north into SoCal, which changes the sky cover game. We should see plenty of high-level clouds this weekend for at least partly-cloudy skies. But the influx of tropical moisture should hinder marine layer development at times, lowering the inversion to about Δ9°F by Monday the 13th. The tropical activity drifting into SoCal could bring light rain to the mountains, and there is a super slight chance that some of that could "near" the coast, but no model shows precip actually falling at the coast. The ensembles show some kind of precip around SD by Monday the 13th, and other models show precip from LA south around the 15th. These are super low chances for the coast — higher though inland.

A large high pressure ridge is then expected to build over much of the U.S. early next week, which could bring a notable warm-up by the middle of next week.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Thursday the 9th) should see a burn-off everywhere by late morning with beach max temps in the low 70s.

Friday the 10th should see a bit more of an AM marine layer with burn-off by late morning and max beach temps in the low 70s.

Saturday the 11th should see AM marine layer with a midmorning burn-off followed by tropical clouds for the rest of the day. Beach max temps should reach the low 70s.

Sunday the 12th should see AM marine layer, early to mid morning burn-off, some tropical clouds overhead, and max beach temps in the low 70s.

Monday the 13th should see AM marine layer, midmorning burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.

Tuesday the 14th will likely see little to no AM marine layer with max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 7:00 AM were calm almost everywhere along the coast. Onshores are expected this afternoon 7-11 mph.

Friday the 10th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.

Saturday the 11th should see light southerlies 2-5 mph in the morning, increasing to 7-11 mph for the afternoon.

Sunday the 12th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.

 

Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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