SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 5/26/26 5:45 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 26th) we have moderately sized SW ground swell in SoCal, mixing with intermittent NW ground swell. NW wind swell picks up Wednesday the 27th. NW ground swell is due by Friday the 29th. A good sized southern hemi ground swell fills into SoCal by Monday the 1st. Another decent sized SW ground swell is due by Friday the 5th. More southern hemis are being tracked for the 9th-12th. And hurricane swell teases the long range. Condition-wise: heavy May Gray with AM drizzle shifts by the end of the week; winds problematic at times; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 200° and 13 seconds from 310°.
Most south facing spots were running chest high with occasional pluses at standouts, especially south of LA at breaks that work refraction from the San Diego Trough (see page 111 in Wave by Wave).
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5-6'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.5'.
Tide levels are moderate. Today we have a 3.5' high around 7:20 AM, a 1.2' low around 1:00 PM, and a 5.5' high around 7:30 PM.
Water temps were running 64-66° in most of SD and OC. LA was varied with Zuma 58°, Santa Monica Pier 62°, Topanga 64°, and Hermosa 67°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 61° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 58° this morning. Note there is a chance for upwelling from strong winds later today into Wednesday the 27th, so water temps could cool a bit Wednesday the 27th and/or Thursday the 28th.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 26th) we're at the peak of the southern hemisphere ground swell that was sent to SoCal almost two weeks ago. We're also seeing intermittent NW ground swell from a high latitude system that was hugging the Aleutian Chain late last week. Both swells have peaked.
Wednesday the 27th, as the southern hemi lingers on its last leg and the NW ground swell declines, we should see NW wind swell from this low pressure system that's bearing down on SoCal today (model by NOAA MAG):
That low will affect weather and winds in SoCal today through Thursday the 28th, which I'll get to in the Weather and Wind sections below. As for wind swell, this should create enough fetch near SoCal to produce chest high waves at most west facing breaks Wednesday the 27th, angled from the wind-swell-usual ≥300° with periods around 10 seconds. Wind swell should back off Thursday the 28th to chest max at west facing breaks. Note that wind swell will be dominant Thursday as the southern hemi and Aleutian swells will have backed off by then.
Friday the 29th (building late Thursday the 28th) should see NW ground swell from this system that traveled from the Western Pacific up toward the Aleutian Chain, peaking with 35' seas late yesterday (model from NOAA OPC):
It's not the best course for a North Pacific swell in SoCal, but there's enough angular spread from those hefty seas to produce chest+ sets at west facing breaks Friday the 29th. However, since we're getting just a glancing blow of energy, sets will likely be inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell should be angled from 310° with periods 18 seconds.
Sunday the 31st (building by late afternoon with earlier forerunners) into Monday the 1st (peak) remains on track to see good sized southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models estimate seas reached 38', which on that course works out to head high sets at south facing breaks Monday the 1st, angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. Note there was some disagreement between models on that fetch's peak seas, but even the low end model calculations result in chest to head high sets at south facing spots. Head high is the most likely size for many sets so that's what I'm going with. Also, sets may be initially spotty Monday the 1st as this swell fills in. This swell should be more consistent Tuesday the 2nd with head high sets, and then dip to chest+ Wednesday the 3rd.
Thursday the 4th (building day with forerunners) into Friday the 5th is when our next SW swell is due. At first, Thursday the 4th should start out with swell from this system (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
While that should start Thursday the 4th with chest high sets at south facing breaks for the dawn patrols, swell from a second, bigger system should produce better size rather quickly (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Forerunners from that swell should fill in throughout the morning Thursday the 4th (page 43). Size should then increase later in the day, reaching its peak Friday the 5th with sets running head high at south facing breaks. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 18-19 seconds. Head high sets should continue at south facing breaks Saturday the 6th, dipping to chest to head high Sunday the 7th, and then chest max Monday the 8th.
Tuesday the 9th may see light to moderate southern hemi swell from this system on the 5-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Hugging the ice pack around Antarctica with barely any northward nudge works out to waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 17 seconds. There's still a few more days to go on this one.
Thursday the 11th or Friday the 12th (depending on the model) could see slightly better sized southerly ground swell from this system with a better course for SoCal swell (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that holds potential for chest high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 185° and periods 15 seconds.
Looking out further on the long range surf horizon, many models show potential for hurricane swell starting around 6/11 or some time shortly after. Here, for instance, is the GEFS ensemble's take on the 2-week projection, with each white arrow pointing to a potential tropical cyclone (model by NOAA MAG):
Although that's a long ways out, conditions remain primed in the tropics as waters continue to warm from El Niño and the localized marine heat wave (MHW) near SoCal (model from NOAA OSPO):
Those warmer than normal waters in the east Pacific's hurricane nursery, combined with what could be a very strong El Niño later this year, increases the likelihood for not only hurricane formation, but also an ideal course for hurricane swell in SoCal (page 153).
Either way, with the southern hemisphere showing continued activity on the longer range there's a lot to monitor right now. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to track wave-making storms and keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep this report going (more on that here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 27th looks about chest max at south facing spots. West facing breaks look about chest high from wind swell.
Thursday the 28th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing spots. West facing breaks should run waist to chest high.
Friday the 29th is expected to run chest+ at west facing breaks from ground swell, but with inconsistent sets with fewer than normal waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing breaks look about waist high.
Saturday the 30th looks about chest max at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 31st is expected to see southern hemisphere ground swell fill in at some point in the afternoon. Forerunners are likely at any time during the day. Overall, most breaks look about waist to chest on the average sets, but with pluses at south facing spots at times from the forerunners, especially by mid afternoon.
Monday the 1st is expected to run head high at south facing spots, although swell may be slow to fill in with sets being sporadically sized, especially from longer than average periods in the mix.
Tuesday the 2nd is expected to run head high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 3rd, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots.
Thursday the 4th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots for the dawn patrols but with forerunners throughout the day and an increase in size late in the day.
Friday the 5th, so far, is expected to run head high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 6th, so far, is expected to run head high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 7th, so far, is expected to run chest to head high at south facing spots.
Monday the 8th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 9th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 10th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing spots.
Thursday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Friday the 12th, so far, also looks about chest high at south facing spots...however, this is when tropical swell potential enters the forecast.
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Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 26th) through Thursday the 28th will be under the influence of this large low pressure system diving south into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
This will thicken up the marine layer today through Thursday the 28th with drizzle likely each morning, especially at the coast. On Thursday, rain is expected north of Pt. Conception and some of that may bring a noticeable sprinkle or two in SoCal. Drizzle though is the most likely scenario.
Meanwhile, that low is dragging cold air into the atmosphere above SoCal, putting the kibosh on the thermal inversion. At first, this is a zero-sum game for May Gray; although the inversion wouldn't aid in marine layer development, the heavy onshore push from the low will, especially when combined with coastal eddies kicked up by outer water winds over the next couple days (page 135). But when the low moves east Friday the 29th, enough cold air should remain in the atmosphere to keep the inversion null while the onshore push diminishes. This should make for a fairly clear day Friday the 29th, with less chance for marine layer development.
Saturday the 30th the marine inversion begins to reestablish, but not drastically. Weak high pressure will build over the region for some warming and decently timed AM burn-offs, more so starting June 1st through the 5th. By the weekend of the 6th we may see a robust trough of low pressure bear down on SoCal, increasing the onshore flow once again.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 26th) is looking at a stubborn marine layer with potential drizzle for many beaches early this morning. Burn-off will be tough, early to mid afternoon from LA north but lingering longer in OC and SD where some beaches may not see any blue sky today. Beach max temps should reach the low 60s.
Wednesday the 27th looks similar with AM marine layer, thickest south of LA, and drizzle in the morning, especially south of LA. Marine layer will likely clear early to mid afternoon from LA north but may linger most of the day in OC and SD. High clouds should also be visible during any marine layer breaks. Beach max temps should reach the low to mid 60s.
Thursday the 28th should see AM marine layer with a chance of drizzle at the coast, possibly enough to squeeze out a quick shower or two. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 60s.
Friday the 29th should see a thin AM marine layer with a burn-off very early and max beach temps in the low to mid 60s.
Saturday the 30th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off early morning and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday the 31st will likely see a thin AM marine layer with burn-off early morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with some light coastal eddy breezes from LA south. Onshores should increase by midmorning, reach 15 mph by noon, and then 15-20 mph by mid afternoon south of LA, but over 25 mph from LA north. Gusts could reach 30 mph mid to late afternoon around VC and SB.
Wednesday the 27th should see light onshores early morning 3-6 mph, increasing throughout the morning, reaching 15 mph late morning or noon. From LA north, onshores should run 15-20 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday the 28th should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon 10-15 mph, and then 15-20 mph mid to late afternoon in many spots.
Friday the 29th should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon 10-15 mph, and then 15-20 mph mid afternoon.
Saturday the 30th, so far, is looking at lighter winds: AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
