SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 4/14/26 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 14th) we have a light to moderate mix of NW wind swell and southerly ground swell in SoCal. NW wind swell picks back up again in a couple days. Light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell is due by the weekend. NW swell is being watched for Tuesday the 21st. Southerly ground swell is due by Thursday the 23rd. NW ground swells are being watched for the 23rd and 26th. And we may see typhoon swell shortly after. Condition-wise: rain being watched for next week; winds shift between onshore and offshore; tide levels stay moderate for daytime sessions; water temps have dipped in some spots; and water-contact advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 11 seconds from 310° and 14 seconds from 185°.
Most breaks were running waist to chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-9'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.5' with wind swell being about half of that on the spectrum.
Tide levels are moderate for daytime sessions. Although we're approaching a New Moon Friday the 17th, the widest swings are mostly outside of daylight hours. However, dawn patrols will see negative lows this weekend into early next week. Today we have a 4.7' high around 8:00 AM, a 0.1' low around 2:30 PM, and a 5' high around 8:30 PM.
Water temps were running 63-66° around most of SD and OC. LA dropped a couple degrees, likely from upwelling caused by the recent outer water winds. Many spots in LA were running upwards of 66° yesterday but buoys are now hovering around 60°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 62° last night. In SB, recent USCG and Stearns Wharf readings were once again unavailable but the channel dropped to 57° this morning.
Water Contact Advisory: The recent rain has increased the risk of contamination from runoff. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 14th) wind swell is starting to back off from this fetch that formed in the wake of the weekend storm (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Southern hemisphere ground swell is also in the mix today from a low latitude system that peaked last week near Antarctica. This southern hemi should continue Wednesday the 15th as the wind swell fades, which should keep most breaks in at least waist high waves Wednesday the 15th.
Thursday the 16th and Friday the 17th should see NW wind swell as this trough of low pressure pushes south, staying just to the north of SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That should whip up 12' seas just west of the Channel Islands, but most of that will stay west of islands, outside of the SoCal Bight. Running the numbers this morning works out to chest high waves at west facing breaks Thursday the 16th, and then chest+ Friday the 17th. Wind swell should be angled from 300°+ and periods 10 seconds.
Saturday the 18th should see wind swell decline as southerly ground swell peaks in SoCal from this system that was near Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should fill in Friday the 17th with initially waist high waves at south facing breaks, which could be equal to NW wrap from the wind swell peaking Friday. Saturday the 18th should see the wind swell back off as south facing breaks run waist to chest high from the southern hemi swell. The southern hemi should be angled from 195° with periods 16 seconds. Size should then run waist to at times chest high at south facing spots Sunday the 19th. Monday the 20th looks smaller everywhere.
Tuesday the 21st could see an increase in NW ground swell from this hefty fetch off the PNW (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a new feature on the models today as weather models are leaning toward this supercharged low taking aim at SoCal early next week, which would whip up that hefty fetch (model by NOAA MAG):
Earlier models showed a moderate trough of low pressure. This new low is an upgrade. Being so close to SoCal smacks of rain, and I'll break that down in the Weather section below. In any case, this, so far, works out to chest to head high wind swell at west facing breaks Tuesday the 21st and Wednesday the 22nd, backing off Thursday the 23rd. Southern hemi swell would overlap on the tail end of that.
Wednesday the 22nd (building day) into Thursday the 23rd (peak day) should see southerly ground swell from this system that broke off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should initially put south facing breaks into waist to chest high sets Wednesday the 22nd as this swell fills in, but wrap from the wind swell may be close to that. On Thursday the 23rd, the wind swell should be greatly reduced as the southern hemi peaks at chest high at south facing breaks, angled from 180-185° and periods 16 seconds. But wait...there's more....
Thursday the 23rd could see NW ground swell from this WestPac system on the 4-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models are split with that NFCENS model above being the most bullish with 35' seas on an OK course; but the GFS model shows only 25' seas on a worse, northward course. Using the NFCENS above works out to head high sets at west facing breaks Thursday the 23rd with swell angled from 300° and periods 18 seconds. But if the GFS has it right, then we'd see smaller waves delayed a day or two. This is only out on the 4-day outlook so I should be able to narrow in on this in my next report (Thursday).
Saturday the 25th into Sunday the 26th could see NW ground swell from this high riding Gulf storm on the 8-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That holds potential for chest+ sets at west facing breaks, angled from 305-310° and periods 16 seconds. I'll need a few more days to see how well models align.
Sunday the 26th into Monday the 27th could also see NW ground swell from Typhoon Sinlaku after the storm turns east, directing swell toward SoCal. Here's how it looks on the 4-day along with the prior swells noted for comparison (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, Sinlaku holds potential for chest high waves at west facing breaks, angled from 295° and periods 16 seconds. This would likely be an inconsistent swell; however, the Gulf swell preceding it would provide more consistency. Taking both swells into account, chest high at west facing breaks would be the call (so far) for the weekend of the 25th-26th, fading Monday the 27th.
There's a lot going on in both hemispheres of the Pacific, typical during the springtime transition. All of this needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue tracking the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential right now to keep this report alive (more on that here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 15th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Thursday the 16th is expected to run chest high from wind swell at west facing breaks. South facing spots look about waist high.
Friday the 17th is expected to run chest+ from wind swell at west facing breaks. South facing spots should run waist high.
Saturday the 18th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and at least waist high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 19th looks about waist high at most spots.
Monday the 20th is expected to run waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 21st, so far, holds potential for chest to head high ground swell at west facing breaks. Weather could be an issue.
Wednesday the 22nd, so far, holds potential for chest to head high ground swell at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 23rd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks. NW ground swell is up in the air with potential for head high sets at west facing breaks, but other models point to much less. This needs much more monitoring over the next couple days.
Friday the 24th, so far, is a wildcard that depends on the NW ground swell development.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 14th) low pressure is now moving east as high pressure temporarily fills into SoCal. That won't last long as this trough of low pressure pushes south toward SoCal, staying just north of our area (model by NOAA MAG):
No rain is expected from that trough; although, rain is in the forecast and I'll get to that in a sec. For the trough for the end of this week, it should only keep air temps cool at first. As it moves east Friday the 17th an offshore flow should develop in its wake. Although models show an offshore gradient of 4mb (on a scale of 1-10), there doesn't seem to be other Santa Ana-supporting features. For instance, the Great Basin high is only forecast to reach 1029mb, which is weak compared to the 1045mb Great Basin highs that bring strong Santa Ana winds to SoCal. Offshore winds, so far, look light to moderate, but enough to keep skies clear for a couple days.
Monday the 20th or Tuesday the 21st — depending on your model of choice — could see rain in SoCal from this low mentioned above tied to the NW swell on the 21st (model by NOAA MAG):
Some models are bullish with rain amounts at least 0.5", but the majority of models put SoCal rain totals at 0.25" max, with much higher amounts across NorCal. Models are too far apart right now to call timing and such, but I'll stay on top of it and have an update in my next report.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 14th) should see a quick burn-off (some spots no marine layer) and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 15th should see a thin marine layer with a quick burn-off, followed by high clouds at times, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Thursday the 16th should see AM marine layer with midmorning burn-off followed by a good deal of high clouds and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Friday the 17th should see little to no AM marine layer, followed by clear skies and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 18th, so far, is expected to see little to no marine layer, high clouds at times, and beach max temps around 70°.
Sunday the 19th, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer with an early burn-off, a fair amount of high clouds, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should reach 15 mph.
Wednesday the 15th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 16th should see AM light and variables with onshores picking up mid to late morning, reaching 15-20 mph in the afternoon.
Friday the 17th, so far, is expected to see AM offshores to 10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Saturday the 18th, so far is expected to see AM offshores to 10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
