SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 9/3/26 6:20 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 3rd) is a small day for surf in SoCal — but not for long. While a decently sized southern hemi swell is due Friday the 4th into Saturday the 5th, significant swell from Hurricane Marie will overlap with that, peaking over the weekend. Smaller southern hemis are in the forecast for the 10th-11th and 16th. Condition-wise: rain from Marie is being watched for the weekend; winds stay moderate for the most part; high tide continues to run deep; water temps remain abnormally warm; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 10 seconds from 190°.
Most all breaks were running waist high with occasional chest high pulses at standout south facing spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4-5'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.3-3.6', but with 10-second periods the shoaling is very low (page 67).
Tide levels are moderate, but an afternoon high will run deep for the next few days before a wider swing by early next week as we approach a New Moon Thursday the 10th. Today we have a 2.5' low around 7:00 AM, a 5.5' high around 2:00 PM, and a 1' low around 10:30 PM.
Water temps were running 70-74° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning.
Hazard Warnings: Swell from Marie will create a number of hazards including the risk of rip currents, rogue sneaker waves, and high consistency starting Friday the 4th, but more so Saturday the 5th through Tuesday the 8th. The NWS started issuing warnings this morning as well. You can see the latest warnings and advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here. Caution is advised.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 3rd) is the smallest day in the SoCal surf zone that we'll see for a while. Swell from Karina is on the way out with her lagging periods showing up today. But that will change tomorrow as we get a combo of southern hemi swell with increasing hurricane swell.
Friday the 4th (building day) into Saturday the 5th should see decently sized swell from this system that was near New Zealand about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That system housed seas in the 25-30' range, which works out to chest+ sets at most south facing breaks, head high at standouts by Saturday the 5th, angled from 205° with periods 16-17 seconds. However, this will be mostly overshadowed by significantly sized hurricane swell.
Hurricane Marie is the more notable swell by the weekend as models have settled into consensus for waves, although split on weather. I'll get to the precip part of Marie in the Weather section below. As for swell, Marie was pumping up 25' seas early this morning, located slightly to our southeast. But something interesting should happen over the next 24 hours (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
The farthest right black arrow shows Marie's course so far, but the green arrow is the course later today into Friday the 4th. That slight improvement in direction will result in a better angular spread (page 52), increasing size for SoCal's south facing breaks. It's also at the point when Marie's fetch should produce 35' seas for stronger swell reaching SoCal; this, as Marie goes from 85 mph winds this morning to 105 mph Friday morning. Marie's fluctuating course means that surf will change each day starting Friday the 4th, this weekend, and early next week as Marie should continue to be a rather strong storm, even once passing the SoCal longitude. So calculating 3-days worth of model readings this morning on Marie's projected course, here's how I'm calling it with 90% confidence for Friday and Saturday, and 75% confidence for Sunday into early next week:
Friday the 4th, around early to mid afternoon, swell from Marie should produce chest to head high waves at south facing breaks able to work a 165° angle. Southern hemi swell will build during the day with similar size. Periods from Marie should max out at 15 seconds, although periods as short as 11 seconds will be in the mix as Marie's proximity won't allow enough time for the longer periods to outrun the shorter ones that would normally lag (page 163).
Saturday the 5th, around early to mid morning, Marie's swell angle improves to 175° to reach more south facing breaks. Size should run 2-4' overhead at many south facing breaks, although initially sporadic as periods up to 18 seconds producing that size should out run the shorter periods that will follow a few hours later. Chest to head high southern hemi will be in the mix at south facing breaks as well. Marie's swell should become highly consistent later in the day; however, this means Saturday morning could see hazardous rogue waves. These bigger waves would not only be from when the longer periods start to arrive, but also due to potential constructive interference from the southern hemi (page 84). Thus, hazards will be elevated Saturday the 5th with high potential for rogue, sneaker waves rushing farther onto the sand, so it's highly advisable to keep the young ones (especially) away from the water's edge, and don't take your eye off the horizon.
Sunday the 6th — based on the 48-hour models with 75% confidence — should run 1-2' overhead at most south facing breaks but with set waves running 3-4' overhead, especially at standouts. However, similarly sized pluses can't be completely ruled out for all south facing breaks as Marie's angle improves to 180-185° and periods run 17 seconds (with shorter periods in the mix). This is also the angle where refraction from the San Diego Trough comes into play (page 111), creating much bigger waves at times at some spots with top-end calculations coming in at DOH for some waves at the standout breaks that benefit from the San Diego Trough.
Monday the 7th should run slightly overhead at most south facing breaks, likely 2' overhead max. Swell angle should shift to about 190°.
Tuesday the 8th would likely still see some swell, likely topping out at head high for south facing spots, angled from 195°.
Wednesday the 9th should then see swell back off to around chest high at south facing spots.
While Marie's forecast has high confidence today, there is a chance this could change over the next 24-48 hours. If anything major shifts between now and my scheduled Sunday report then I'll update this report. You can sign up for the free email notification at the top of this page to get alerts when this forecast is updated.
Thursday the 10th (building day) into Friday the 11th should see moderate SW ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That works out to chest high sets at south facing breaks by Friday the 11th, angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds. This swell should continue Saturday the 12th and back off to waist high or so Sunday the 13th.
Wednesday the 16th is the next swell on my charts this morning from this system on the 5-day models south of French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's not an ideal course for SoCal swell, which works out to waist to maybe chest max waves at south facing breaks, angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds.
Looking out on the longer range, the search for surf for the second half of the month into October is lackluster right now with no major tropical developments or southern hemisphere storms worth noting. But that's what models show right now. As we all know, the Pacific never stays quiet for long. So as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 4th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 5th should run 2-4' overhead at many south facing spots by early to mid AM, although this may be sporadic at first.
Sunday the 6th should run 1-2' overhead at many south facing spots with sets 3-4' overhead at top spots. Bigger pluses are likely at spots able to work refraction from the San Diego Trough (page 111).
Monday the 7th looks about 1-2' overhead at many south facing spots.
Tuesday the 8th, so far, looks about head high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 9th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Thursday the 10th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Friday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 12th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 13th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 3rd) an interesting weather pattern has developed that will affect SoCal over the next few days, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
While high pressure has weakened and moved east, a robust trough of low pressure (red circle) is pushing south through SoCal. That trough is increasing the onshore flow into SoCal for cooler weather, but there is enough tropical moisture already in SoCal to inhibit marine layer formation. The thermal inversion (page 131) is fairly weak at the coast too as water temps remain above normal. This should keep the morning marine layer in check with decently timed burn offs today and Friday.
Tropical clouds will start to drift into SoCal from Marie this weekend along with possible precip. The tropical moisture will further inhibit marine layer formation, but precip is where things get tricky. Many models show some level of rain reaching SoCal this weekend: the GFS, CMC, and all ensembles show rain. But the well-trusted NAM and ECMWF show almost no rain. The North American Ensemble, which comprises 52 model members, falls somewhere in between with light rain from VC south through SD (model by NOAA MAG):
Taking so many models into account, ensembles like the NAEFS almost inevitably show rain, and the red circle in SoCal identifies a margin of error, putting this further in doubt. With models so far apart, one would need to broad-brush the forecast with "possible" rain Saturday the 5th through Monday the 7th, maybe even Tuesday the 8th; however, any rain should be brief with low amounts. At the top end, rain totals might run 0.1-0.2" in OC and SD, up to 0.1" in LA and VC, and trace in SB. The more likely scenario is about 0.1" from VC south through SD; however, that would be for the coast. Inland areas could see more. At the low end is no rain at all. But there's no way to call this with anything more than a moderate level of certainty right now. If the forecast shifts to anything hazardous over the next 24-48 hours, then I'll issue an earlier report ahead of my scheduled Sunday report.
Tuesday the 8th will likely be the end of any effects from Marie. Another trough of low pressure is expected to sag south into SoCal Thursday the 10th for another cool-down. High pressure might not make a comeback until the 16th; and even then it looks moderate right now.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 3rd) should see an early to mid AM burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Friday the 4th should see AM marine layer, early to mid AM burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Saturday the 5th should see little to no AM marine layer. Light rain is possible late afternoon in SD, possibly into SD. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Sunday the 6th should see a good deal of tropical clouds. Marine layer isn't likely but skies look rather cloudy most of the day. Light rain is possible, concentrated mostly across LA, OC and SD. Precip though can't be completely ruled out anywhere. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Monday the 7th should see clearing and minimal marine layer. Some models show precip, but low chance right now. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should reach 15 mph, stronger at times from LA north mid to late afternoon to 20 mph.
Friday the 4th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Saturday the 5th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Sunday the 6th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
