SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 6/4/26 5:35 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 4th) we have mostly moderate SW ground swell in SoCal with lesser NW wind swell. Southerly swell increases Friday the 5th. A significantly sized southern hemisphere ground swell is due Tuesday the 9th. Wind swell may follow. Moderate southern hemi swell is due for the weekend of the 13th-14th. Tropical swell is being watched for that timeframe. And the next southern hemi swell is being tracked for the 16th-17th. Condition-wise: seasonal June Gloom with day-to-day variations in marine layer; winds stay moderate; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.
BTW, just a quick heads-up before getting to the forecast: May donations came in short (more on that here). So if you haven't donated in a while, now would be a great time to contribute. Thank you everyone!
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15-18 seconds from 200-210°.
Most south facing spots were running chest high early this morning. Direct west facing spots were mostly waist to chest, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 10'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.5'.
Tide levels are moderate. Today we have a -0.2' low around 7:00 AM, a 3.5' high around 2:00 PM, a 3' low around 6:00 PM, and a 5' high around midnight.
Water temps were running 63-66° around most of SD. OC was more varied with Huntington Beach 59°, Newport 61°, and San Clemente Pier 66°. LA was running 63-65° in many spots, although the usually-cooler Zuma reported 59°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 62° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 4th) we're seeing the warm-up round of southern hemi ground swell ahead of an increase Friday the 5th. Right now we're seeing swell from this system that peaked about nine days ago near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
But later today we should see forerunners ahead of Friday's swell, kicked up by this bigger system that formed behind it (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
By Friday the 5th, most south facing breaks should run head high with swell angled from 210° and periods 18-19 seconds. Head high sets should continue at south facing breaks Saturday the 6th, and then dip slightly to chest to head high Sunday the 7th.
Although southern hemi will be dominant over the next couple days, wind swell is in the mix today as this familiar springtime pattern kicked up winds along the coast (model by UQAM):
Pressure gradients were tight with Δ22 hPa between that high and low, whipping up winds that were gusting 30-35 mph off the Central Coast and west of the Channel Islands last night. The swell angle is super steep on this wind swell, well north of SoCal's 300° magic mark so a good deal of this is skirting past SoCal with only a fraction diffracting into the SoCal Bight (page 77). This should keep west facing breaks in chest high-ish wind swell today and Friday the 5th, lingering at waist to chest at west facing breaks Saturday the 6th and Sunday the 7th. Southern hemi swell will be dominant though with south facing breaks doing better for size (and wave shape). In any event, the wind swell should back off quite a bit Monday the 8th before the next southern hemisphere ground swell comes ashore.
Monday the 8th (late, with forerunners throughout the day) into Tuesday the 9th (peak) should see significantly sized southern hemisphere ground swell from this impressive system that peaked a couple days ago after traveling northward off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Seas were robust with that purple center representing 45' significant wave heights (average seas, so to speak). From that distance and course, size works out to sets running 2-3' overhead at south facing breaks Tuesday the 9th and Wednesday the 10th, angled from 190-195° with periods 20 seconds. That angle also puts swell just within the window to create pluses at spots working refraction through the San Diego Trough (page 111). So there is a chance that some standouts, mostly south of LA, could see bigger set waves at times. After peaking Tuesday the 9th and Wednesday the 10th, this swell should back down to about head high Thursday the 11th, and then chest+ Friday the 12th.
Wednesday the 10th, although southern hemi swell will be dominant, we may see moderate NW wind swell in the mix as this rainstorm (red arrow) passes through NorCal, with the lower edge of its upper-level trough (yellow arrow) dipping into SoCal (model by UQAM):
We may see some drizzle out of this, but the main feature will be wind — enough to create chest+ wind swell at west facing breaks Wednesday the 10th and maybe Thursday the 11th. However, models have been highly inconsistent with this so I'll need a few more days to see how this unfolds.
Saturday the 13th (building quickly) into Sunday the 14th (peak) should see moderate SW ground swell from this system breaking off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30' seas on that trajectory, there'll be moderate loss from its angular spread (page 52), with size coming in at chest+ at south facing breaks, angled from 190° and periods 16-17 seconds. This swell should continue to a slightly lesser degree Monday the 15th (chest high).
Sunday the 14th continues to hold potential for tropical swell in the mix, but models are all over the place with tropical activity on the extended long range. The GEFS ensemble is the most bullish, taking this system well within our swell window on a wave-worthy course for SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
No two models agree on any solution so I'll keep a yellow pin in my charts for now. The tropics are quite active though with plenty of cyclonic potential off Mexico that aligns with the GEFS's take this morning. TS Amanda is the first named storm for the Pacific season right now, and although it's not a swell-maker for SoCal, it and other tropical storm potential are being influenced by warmer than normal waters in our tropical swell window from not just El Niño, but the marine heat wave (MHW) also (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
This could make for an active hurricane season in the eastern Pacific, which warrants much more monitoring over the coming weeks. Meanwhile, there's plenty of activity in the southern hemisphere.
Tuesday the 16th (building day) into Wednesday the 17th (peak) will likely see SW ground swell but models are split on course and thus size from this system on the 4-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
All models agree this will house 40-45' seas. If the GFS has it right, then its easterly course will result in notable loss from its angular spread (page 52). The ECMWF model, on the other hand, would result in almost no angular loss with much more energy being directed at SoCal. The difference for south facing breaks is either sets running chest+ (GFS) or 2' overhead (ECMWF). Angle would be 210° and periods 20 seconds. This needs a lot more monitoring over the next few days, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific and keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial right now to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 5th is expected to run head high at south facing spots and chest max at west facing breaks from wrap and wind swell.
Saturday the 6th is expected to run head high at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Sunday the 7th is expected to run chest to at times head high at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Monday the 8th is expected to run chest high at south facing spots for the dawn patrols, but with forerunners throughout the day and an increase by the evening. West facing breaks will rely on wrap.
Tuesday the 9th is expected to run 2-3' overhead at many south facing spots. West facing breaks will rely on wrap.
Wednesday the 10th looks about 2-3' overhead at south facing spots. West facing breaks will rely on wrap, but chest high NW wind swell may also come ashore.
Thursday the 11th looks about head high at south facing spots with some pluses possible in the morning.
Friday the 12th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks with some pluses near head high at standouts.
Saturday the 13th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 14th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks. There is potential for tropical swell around this time.
Monday the 15th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 16th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 17th, so far, holds potential for bigger southern hemi swell, but models are split between chest+ or a couple feet overhead. I'll put a bow on this in my next report.
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Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 4th) very weak high pressure sits over SoCal as a flat, zonal flow streams through California to our north. SoCal's signature thermal inversion (page 131) is strong for now. Combined with a coastal eddy from last night's winds (page 135), this is all conspiring to thicken up the morning marine layer today. Over the weekend the inversion should weaken, but that's when a trough of low pressure starts to bear down on SoCal. All of this should keep the marine layer in place for the typical June Gloom pattern having afternoon burn-offs, although stubborn at times for some spots some days. Other than that, a few question marks remain for a storm passing to the north of SoCal early next week, linked to wind swell on the 10th, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by UQAM):
We may see some morning drizzle out of that, but it could actually make for somewhat earlier burn-offs as northerly winds may scour out the marine moisture early, and cold air aloft would weaken the inversion.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 4th) should see a burn-off by noon or early afternoon, although a grip of gloom may linger across portions of VC and SB until mid to late afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Friday the 5th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon or early afternoon. Once again, some marine layer may linger well into the afternoon at some spots, mostly VC, but possibly parts of SB and LA too. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday the 6th is looking at a fairly thick marine layer followed by high clouds. Marine layer should dissipate by noon or early afternoon, but skies may remain partly- to mostly-cloudy into the afternoon from the high clouds. Max beach temps should reach the mid 60s.
Sunday the 7th should see AM marine layer, burnoff by noon, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Monday the 8th will likely see AM marine layer, burn-off by noon, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday the 9th, so far, is looking at an early burn-off with morning marine layer dissipating mid to late morning. Max beach temps will likely run in the mid 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight southerly element. Afternoon onshores should reach 10-15 mph.
Friday the 5th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Saturday the 6th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Sunday the 7th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores around 15 mph, but up to 20 mph mid to late afternoon.
Monday the 8th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores running 15 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
