SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 6/11/26 6:50 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 11th) strong southern hemisphere ground swell continues with background NW wind swell in the mix. The southern hemi swell has peaked and will fade over the next couple days, as will wind swell. Moderate SW ground swell builds over the weekend. Decent sized SW ground swell is due by Wednesday the 17th. Moderate SW ground swell builds over the weekend of the 20th-21st, lasting for a few days after. And there's an update this morning on El Niño. Condition-wise: thin to moderate marine layer through the forecast with fair beach temps; winds stay moderate; a tidal swing is underway; water temps are up in many spots; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 17 seconds from 185° and 10 seconds from 310°.
Most south facing spots were running head high to a couple feet overhead with bigger sets at times at standouts, especially those benefiting from the San Diego Trough (see page 111 in Wave by Wave). West facing breaks were mostly chest high, bigger though at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 9; however, much of that is outer water wind swell. Nearshore buoys were running 2.5-3.8' with southern hemi energy being most of that.
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a New Moon Sunday the 14th. Typical for this time of year, the peak swings will be mostly outside of daylight hours. Today we have a 3.3' high around 7:30 AM, a 1.5' low around 12:30 PM, and a 6' high around 7:00 PM.
Water temps were up in many spots. Most of SD was running 66-70°. OC was hovering around 66-68° in many spots, although Huntington Beach reported 61° early yesterday. LA was mostly 64-68°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 64° this morning.
Hazardous Condition Warnings: The strong southern hemisphere ground swell will continue to increase the risk of rip currents over the next couple days, especially at south facing breaks. The NWS has issued warnings as well for SB, VC, and LA here, and OC and SD here. Caution is advised.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 11th) we still have a good deal of southerly ground swell in SoCal from this system you might recall from earlier reports that peaked about 10 days ago near Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This swell is on the way out and should back down to chest to head high Friday the 12th. Wind swell in the mix today is also on the way out and should be all but gone by the weekend.
Saturday the 13th, as today's swell continues to fade, we should see swell build quickly, peaking Sunday the 14th from this system that recently broke off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30' seas on that trajectory, size works out to chest high Saturday the 13th and chest+ Sunday the 14th. Swell should be angled from 190° and periods 16-17 seconds. This swell should continue Monday the 15th at chest high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 16th (building day) into Wednesday the 17th (peak) should see decent sized SW ground swell from this New Zealand system (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
At first, that storm's easterly course sent a fraction of its long-period ground swell to SoCal with a high degree of loss from its initial angular spread (page 52). That portion will arrive Tuesday the 16th with inconsistent swell. But the northerly course off the east coast of New Zealand, when the storm weakened, will result in swell building later in the day Tuesday the 16th, peaking Wednesday the 17th. With 50' seas initially and then 40' seas on its northerly course, we should see inconsistent sets early in the morning Tuesday the 16th running head high at times at south facing breaks; however, there should be few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell should then become a bit more consistent in the afternoon, with somewhat consistent sets Wednesday the 17th running head high to a foot overhead (but still with long wait times between sets). Swell should be angled from 210-215° with periods 19-21 seconds initially. This swell should back down to chest to head high at south facing spots Thursday the 18th, and then chest high Friday the 19th.
Saturday the 20th (building day) through Monday the 22nd will likely see moderately sized SW ground swell from these two, low latitude storms (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
The first system is just 24 hours out but the second one needs a couple more days to monitor. Given the size and course, this works out to swell building Saturday the 20th with the better set waves running upwards of chest high at south facing breaks, becoming consistently chest high Sunday the 21st. The second system looks similarly sized, keeping chest high waves going at south facing breaks Monday the 22nd and Tuesday the 23rd. Swell should be angled from 210° with periods 15-16 seconds.
Wednesday the 24th could see the next southern hemi swell from this system on the 4-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that's looking like a chest+ swell for south facing breaks Wednesday the 24th, angled from 200° with periods 17 seconds. This swell would likely continue Thursday the 25th with similar size.
More southern hemisphere activity is showing up on the long range with early ETAs around Sunday the 28th. In the meantime, the northern hemisphere has gone seasonally silent, so all eyes are focused on the tropics and south of the equator.
Looking out further on SoCal's long range surf horizon, NOAA issued an official update today on this year's El Niño, giving us a good idea on what may unfold wave- and weather-wise over the coming months. Right now, we can see El Niño taking on its classic shape with anomalously warm waters stretching off Peru (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
We can also see two marine heat waves (red blobs), one near SoCal and another north of Hawaii. While those don't necessarily have any influence over seasonal climate, the tongue of warm water in the El Niño zones will (see pages 92-98). However, unlike earlier predictions (see earlier chart here), the expected strength of this year's Niño is now looking a tad weaker (image from Columbia Climate School):
Instead of becoming a historic 3°C event, this year's El Niño is now forecast to run about 2.2°C (thick red line, dynamical model mean). It could even be as low as 1.8°C (thick green line, statistical model mean). In fact, when looking at strength probabilities, NOAA is putting a 63% chance of this being a "Very Strong El Niño", which would exceed 2°C. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 was 2.4°C. Still, this year's 2.2°C forecast is strong, and increases the likelihood of an active hurricane season in the eastern Pacific this summer; then strong NW ground swell this winter; and high rain amounts this winter as well.
There is a lot to monitor for the near term surf forecast and the extended long range as well. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific and keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is critical to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 12th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 13th is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 14th is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks.
Monday the 15th looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 16th is expected to run head high at south facing spots on the better set waves, but chest high on the average sets, with sets being inconsistent as swell fills in.
Wednesday the 17th is expected to run head high to a foot overhead at south facing breaks, but sets may be inconsistent with long lulls between sets and fewer than normal waves per set.
Thursday the 18th looks about head high at south facing spots, with the same inconsistency issue.
Friday the 19th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 20th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 21st, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks.
Monday the 22nd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 23rd, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 24th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 11th) through early next week there'll be minor day-to-day differences in beach weather along the SoCal coast. High pressure is building into the American West from the Pacific but an inland trough is pushing south into SoCal, keeping that high in check. The high will break down next week, but not in any drastic way. This basically boils down to a 10-20% increase in onshore flow this weekend, but a slightly weaker onshore early next week. Overall, it's a rather redundant forecast for SoCal beach weather for the next few days, so here's how I'm calling it:
Today (Thursday the 11th) should see early AM marine layer with a mid morning burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Friday the 12th should see AM marine layer and a mid to late morning burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Saturday the 13th should see AM marine layer and a late morning burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Sunday the 14th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Monday the 15th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tuesday the 16th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should reach 8-12 mph.
Friday the 12th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Saturday the 13th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Sunday the 14th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Monday the 15th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
