SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 4/30/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 30th) we have mostly light to moderate NW ground swell in SoCal with minor NW wind swell and southern hemi in the background. Light southern hemi is due Sunday the 3rd into Monday the 4th. Moderately sized NW ground swell is due by Tuesday the 5th. A light NW-SW combo is becoming likely for Saturday the 9th. Slightly better sized southern hemi follows. A moderate NW ground swell is being watched for the 12th-13th. And a light to moderate southern hemi may follow that. Condition-wise: rain chances in the forecast; winds are seasonal although strong at times; tide levels are swinging wider; and water temps are on the cool side for now.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods — from strongest to weakest — were sporadic at 16 seconds from 300°, steadier at 12 seconds from 305°, 6 seconds from about 300°, and 14 seconds from 175°.
Most west facing breaks were running waist high with intermittent sets to chest high. South facing spots were mostly knee to waist.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6-7'. Nearshore buoys were about 2'.
Tide levels will swing wider over the next few days from a Full Moon Friday the 1st. But typical for this time of year, the widest swings will be mostly outside of daylight hours. Today we had a -0.5' low around 3:30 AM. We'll see a 4' high around 10:00 AM, a 1.5' low around 3:00 PM, and a 5.5' high around 9:00 PM.
Water temps were running 59-63° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, USCG reports were unavailable. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 58° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 30th) we're seeing spotty NW ground swell from this high-latitude system that crashed into the Aleutians a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That wasn't an ideal course for SoCal swell so its chest max waves are sporadic at west facing breaks today. We also have wind swell in the mix from winds centered mostly off NorCal, which should top out at waist high at SoCal's west facing breaks today and Friday the 1st. Friday though should still see the intermittent Aleutian swell, so chest high pluses are still likely (but rare) at west facing breaks Friday the 1st. This should back off to waist max Saturday the 2nd.
Sunday the 3rd (late) into Monday the 4th, as wind swell drops off, we should see light southern hemisphere ground swell from this storm that recently peaked southeast of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 25' seas from that position and course, SoCal's south facing breaks should see waist to at times chest high waves by Monday the 4th, angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. This should linger at waist high at south facing spots Tuesday the 5th through Thursday the 7th, however, west facing breaks will likely do better from the next swell north of the equator.
Monday the 4th (building day) into Tuesday the 5th should see NW ground swell from this system that just peaked south of the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30' seas on that course, SoCal's west facing breaks can expect sets running chest+ by Tuesday the 5th. However, the angle on this is just north of SoCal's ≤300° magic mark, coming in from 305°. Breaks with minimal westerly exposure struggle with that, so some west facing spots may top out at waist high while standout west facing spots see chest+ sets. Periods should run 16-17 seconds. This swell should continue Wednesday the 6th and back off to waist high Thursday the 7th.
BTW: Thursday the 7th should also see minor southern hemisphere ground swell so most breaks would be looking at waist high waves Thursday the 7th, and knee to waist Friday the 8th.
Saturday the 9th will likely see a combo of light NW and SW ground swells. The NW swell should be from this high latitude system on the 3-day models coming off Kamchatka (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's all the farther that storm would travel, which works out to waist to chest high waves at SoCal's west facing breaks Saturday the 9th, angled from a fairly steep 305° with periods 15-16 seconds. The SW portion of the combo would be from a very low latitude storm that was skirting the ice pack around Antarctica, resulting in waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 16 seconds.
Sunday the 10th (building day) into Monday the 11th will likely see better sized SW ground swell from this storm that should peak at a decent latitude but less than favorable course (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Based on the 2-day models, that works out to waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks by Monday the 11th, angled from 200° and periods 17 seconds. This would continue Tuesday the 12th and back off Wednesday the 13th, trading places with potential NW ground swell.
Tuesday the 12th (late) into Wednesday the 13th may see NW ground swell from this storm that'd take a southeast dive from Kamchatka (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Based on the 7-day outlook, that could produce chest+ sets at west facing breaks Wednesday the 13th, angled from 300° with periods 15 seconds. Overlapping with that we might see SW ground swell from this southern hemi storm that'd take a temporary trek to the northeast (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That slight northward nudge would send enough energy to SoCal's south facing breaks for waist to chest high sets Wednesday the 13th or Thursday the 14th — depending on what model one chooses to go with. This is on the 3-day, so I'll be able to firm this up in my Sunday report.
Looking further out on the long range surf horizon, the southern hemisphere is becoming more active while the northern hemisphere is quieting down. However, the GFS's long range ensemble models show early season tropical activity off Mexico a couple weeks from now. Being 300+ hours out makes that dubious for swell, but a signal for the season. As you might recall from earlier reports, we're seeing both the development of El Niño, and a Marine Heat Wave (MHV), which could provide warm-water fuel for tropical storm development (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
There's a lot to watch right now — and in the coming months — across the Pacific, especially with these warm-water developments. But as long as I have your support then I can continue this report going to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential to keep it alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 1st should run chest max at west facing breaks, but with highly inconsistent sets. South facing spots look about waist max.
Saturday the 2nd looks about waist high at most breaks.
Sunday the 3rd looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Monday the 4th looks about waist high at most breaks, but with occasional chest high pluses at standout south facing spots.
Tuesday the 5th should see chest high sets at west facing breaks, although somewhat spotty. South facing breaks look about waist to at times chest high.
Wednesday the 6th looks about chest max at west facing breaks and waist max at south facing spots.
Thursday the 7th looks about waist high everywhere.
Friday the 8th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Saturday the 9th, so far, is expected to see waist to chest high swell at west facing breaks and waist high waves at south facing spots.
Sunday the 10th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at most breaks.
Monday the 11th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 30th) fair weather is expected this week as a moderate ridge of high pressure meanders around the American West. A small cut-off low is passing to the south of SoCal, which shouldn't affect us. Instead, fair, seasonal weather is expected today through Sunday the 3rd with AM marine layer and beach max temps in the mid 60s. However, Sunday does look like a transition day before the next weather feature approaches SoCal.
Monday the 4th and Tuesday the 5th will likely see AM drizzle from this cut-off low you might recall from earlier reports (model by NOAA MAG):
Measurable rain is now absent from the forecast; instead, most models now show only light drizzle in the morning hours Monday the 4th and Tuesday the 5th along the coast.
Moderate high pressure would become reestablished over the American West once the low passes to the east Wednesday the 6th, making for fair weather Wednesday the 6th through Friday the 8th. Models then take another cut-off low into SoCal Saturday the 9th, which some models show could bring rain. Given recent events, I'd put rain in the low-chance category for now. I'll keep an eye on it though and I'll have more in my next report.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 30th) should see marine layer dissipate by late morning for mostly clear skies and beach max temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday the 1st should see AM marine layer with a mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday the 2nd should see AM marine layer with a mid to late AM burn-off, high clouds at times throughout the day, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday the 3rd is looking at a thick morning marine layer with burn-off in the afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 60s.
Monday the 4th looks fairly cloudy, and there is a chance for morning drizzle. Otherwise, max beach temps should reach the low 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should reach 15 mph.
Friday the 1st should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Saturday the 2nd is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Sunday the 3rd is expected to see onshores pick up early, reaching 15 mph by noon and up to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Monday the 4th, so far, is expected to see early AM onshores 3-5 mph, increasing to 15 mph mid to late morning, and then reach 20 mph in the afternoon.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
