SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 9/29/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 29th) Polo's swell has peaked as NW wind swell and ground swell become dominant at many spots. Rachel is being watched for potential swell early next week. Moderate southern hemi is due on the 8th-9th. And more southern hemis are being watched for the 11th-13th. Condition-wise: fair weather and winds on tap for the coast with a warmup on the way; the tide is swinging wide; and water temps remain on the warm side.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 9 seconds from 310°, 15 seconds from 295°, and 13-18 seconds from 170°.
Most breaks were running chest to head high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 8'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.4' (south facing) to 4' (west facing).
Tide levels are still swinging wide from Saturday's Full Moon. Today we have a 1.5' low around 5:00 AM, a 6.2' high around 11:00 AM, and a 0.1' low around 6:00 PM.
Water temps were running 72-75° around most of SD and OC. LA was averaging 72°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 72° this morning.
Hazard Warnings: Although Polo's swell has peaked, there will continue to be a risk of rip currents today. The NWS has issued warnings as well. You can see the latest warnings and advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here. Caution is advised.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 29th) swell from Polo is already on the way out as it appears to have peaked in SoCal last night after having a tough time reaching into SoCal's swell window (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
This swell had a tougher time than expected with not as much energy making it into the SoCal Bight. Along with Polo's swell, we also have sporadic NW swell from Dujuan and earlier Aleutian activity. But the dominant swell at many breaks today is NW wind swell from the trough of low pressure that has been passing through SoCal. In fact, winds were still howling at 25 kt in the outer waters early this morning, which should settle down tonight.
Wednesday the 30th should see Polo's swell back off with top spots running chest high, although pluses are possible. NW ground swell and wind swell should run chest high at west facing breaks with some head high pluses at standouts.
Thursday the 1st should see all of these swells back off further with about chest max waves everywhere. Smaller surf is on tap Friday the 2nd through Sunday the 4th.
Monday the 5th or Tuesday the 6th (depending on the model) we could see swell from Rachel, which is forecast to become a hurricane tomorrow. Here's how she'd look four days from now (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Once entering the SoCal swell window, Rachel would turn west, resulting in a fair amount of angular decay (page 52). But with 30-35' seas, we'd get enough energy to put south facing breaks into head high sets, yet angled from a fairly steep 160-170°. Periods would run 13-16 seconds. This is a relatively new feature, but I'll have an update in my next report.
Thursday the 8th (building day) into Friday the 9th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should put most south facing breaks into chest high sets by Friday the 9th with swell angled from 210° and periods 16 seconds.
Saturday the 10th or Sunday the 11th (depending on the model) could see SW ground swell from this deep low latitude storm on the 3-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's the GFS model's take on it with 30-35' seas for swell arriving on the 11th with chest max sets at south facing breaks. The ECMWF shows 40' seas for swell arriving on the 10th with chest+ sets at south facing breaks. Swell would be angled from 200° and periods either 17 or 19 seconds. While that's just three days out and should be confirmable in my Thursday report, the ECMWF shows a stronger swell on the 5-day (model from ECMWF):
That would house seas upwards of 45', resulting in head high+ sets at south facing breaks on by the 13th, angled from 205° and periods 20 seconds. No other model shows that fetch right now so it needs more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 30th looks about chest to at times head high at south and west facing spots.
Thursday the 1st looks smaller, about chest max at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Friday the 2nd should run waist high at most spots.
Saturday the 3rd looks about waist high everywhere.
Sunday the 4th looks about waist high everywhere.
Monday the 5th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere; however, there is a chance for swell from Rachel to start filling in.
Tuesday the 6th, so far, holds potential for head high swell at south facing breaks from Rachel.
Wednesday the 7th, so far, also holds potential for head high swell at south facing breaks from Rachel.
Thursday the 8th, so far, would likely see swell from Rachel start to back off, likely chest to head high max.
Friday the 9th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 10th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Monday the 12th might see an increase in southern hemi ground swell...more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 29th) a trough of low pressure is pushing through SoCal, increasing the onshore flow. Marine layer is minimal as winds have scoured much of that out, and lingering tropical moisture has inhibited marine layer development. As the trough moves east Wednesday and Thursday we'll see a light onshore flow with some minimal marine layer. And then Friday sees a ridge of high pressure build over the American Southwest, centered over Arizona, stretching well into SoCal. This should create a mild offshore flow for little to no morning marine layer through the weekend, along with a warm-up. High pressure is then forecast to wax and wane in strength early next week with only slight day-to-day differences in clearing and beach max temps.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 29th) should see mostly clear skies at the coast and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Wednesday the 30th should see little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Thursday the 1st should see AM marine layer, burn-off midmorning, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Friday the 2nd should see AM marine layer, burn-off midmorning, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Saturday the 3rd should see little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the low 80s.
Sunday the 4th should see little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the low 80s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores should pick up by noon to 10 mph, and then 14-18 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Wednesday the 30th should see AM light and variables with a slight offshore element and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 1st should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Friday the 2nd should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
