SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Saturday 8/8/26 10:15 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Saturday the 8th) I'm posting my report a day early since I'll be gone Sunday. I'll post my next report as usual on Tuesday, but if anything changes before then I'll post a report on Monday. You can sign up for the free email notifications above if you'd like to you know when new reports are posted.
At a glance, long-period southern hemisphere ground swell is filling in today, peaking Sunday the 9th. Decent sized southern hemi is due by the end of next week. And moderate southern hemis are being watched for the 21st and 25th. Meanwhile, hurricane swell has been dropped from the forecast, but a pattern shift could become favorable in a few weeks. Condition-wise: cooler weather ahead; winds stay moderate; a tidal swing is underway; and water temps remain warm in many spots.
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Current Conditions:
This morning, periods were primarily running 18 seconds from 200°.
Most breaks were running waist high this morning, but south facing breaks can expect chest high pluses as ground swell fills in.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 1.8'.
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a New Moon Wednesday the 12th. Today we have a 3.5' high around 8:00 AM, a 2.5' low around noon, and a 6'+ high around 6:30 PM.
Water temps were running 73-76° around most of SD and OC, although Huntington Beach reported 69° yesterday.. LA was mostly 70-74°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 73° this morning. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 68° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Saturday the 8th) long-period SW ground swell is starting to fill in and will peak Sunday the 9th from this system that traveled north off Antarctica about nine days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
This should put most south facing breaks into chest high sets Sunday the 9th with swell angled mostly from 195° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should continue Monday the 10th at chest max at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 11th (building day) into Wednesday the 12th (peak) should see spotty, intermittent SW ground swell from this system that had decently sized seas but a less than ideal course for SoCal surf (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Although housing 35-40' seas, its course resulted in a high degree of angular decay (page 52). Size should run waist to chest high at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 18 seconds. This swell looks inconsistent so there should be few waves per set and long lulls between sets. This swell should continue Thursday the 13th.
Thursday the 13th had a chance of seeing hurricane swell but models over the past 48 hours continually downgraded that. Models this morning show nothing wave-worthy for the short term so I'm dropping it from the forecast. In case something changes between now and my next report scheduled for Tuesday, I'll post an earlier report — I doubt that will be necessary, but I'll stay on top of it either way and keep you posted.
Friday the 14th (building day) into Saturday the 15th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With seas measuring 30-35' on an ideal course for SoCal surf, there'll be very little loss from angular decay (only distance decay). Running the numbers (page 57), size should run chest+ at most south facing breaks by Saturday the 15th with standouts seeing pluses in the head high range. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should continue Sunday the 16th with similar size, and then back down to chest high Monday the 17th and waist to chest Tuesday the 18th.
Wednesday the 19th should see light to moderate SW ground swell from this system on the 24-hour models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Today's models downgraded seas slightly to 25', which works out to waist high waves at most south facing breaks with occasional chest high pluses at standouts. Swell should be angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. This swell should continue with similar size Thursday the 20th and dip slightly Friday the 21st
Saturday the 22nd (building late Friday the 21st) we might see moderately sized southern hemi swell from this system taking a favorable northward course off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Based on the 5-day models, that holds potential for sets running chest high at south facing breaks, angled from 200° and periods 15 seconds.
Tuesday the 25th is the next swell on my charts today from this system near New Zealand on the 8-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's a long way out, but so far it holds potential for chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds.
Looking out further on the long range, while light to moderate southern hemisphere swells show potential toward the end of the month, the one thing that's disappeared from the models — albeit temporarily — is wave-worthy tropical activity. Although waters are warm and primed for hurricanes in the eastern tropical Pacific, a short-term climate cycle known as the MJO — which influences 30- to 60-day periods of convection in the tropics — is essentially in a negative state. The MJO is in a suppressed phase over the eastern equatorial Pacific right now, so it can be expected that tropical cyclone formation will be temporarily suppressed as well. The MJO has also been in a temporary negative state as it counteracts with this year's El Niño, but MJO forecasts call for these negative factors to change for the better in a few weeks. But that's not all.
We're also entering a change in our local weather pattern that will bring not only a notable change in our weather this coming week (more on that in the Weather section below), but also hurricane guidance once storms form. That guidance is aided by high pressure that sits over the U.S., which right now, is just moderate, centered over the 4-Corners region, circled in blue (model by NOAA MAG):
A 598dm high is fairly strong, but that high is not that broad and is weakening. The clockwise spin from these summertime highs help swirl hurricanes northward into our swell window, and although that high is just big enough to do so, it's about to weaken and move east. Here for instance is what to expect ten days from now (model by NOAA MAG):
By Wednesday the 19th, high pressure would be weak and small, centered over eastern Texas. At the same time, a strong low pressure system with a broad trough (red circle) would push southward toward SoCal. Each day from now till then will see a slow progression toward this pattern, which doesn't favor hurricane guidance. But, by the end of the month into September, the MJO should take a turn for the better, and the weather pattern could change as well. Both would favor the formation of more hurricanes. It's something that needs a lot more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Sunday the 9th is expected to run chest high at south facing spots. West facing breaks should run waist max.
Monday the 10th is expected to run chest max at south facing spots. West facing breaks should run waist max.
Tuesday the 11th is expected to run waist to chest high at south facing spots with spotty swell and inconsistent sets. West facing breaks should run knee to waist.
Wednesday the 12th is expected to run waist to chest high at south facing spots but with inconsistent sets. West facing breaks should run knee to waist.
Thursday the 13th looks about waist max everywhere.
Friday the 14th should see SW swell fill in to south facing spots, starting at waist high for dawn patrols, chest high later in the day.
Saturday the 15th is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots with pluses to head high at standouts.
Sunday the 16th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots with pluses to head high at standouts.
Monday the 17th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks with rarer pluses.
Tuesday the 18th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Saturday the 8th) high pressure is starting to weaken over the 4-Corners region and will weaken each day over the next ten days as the high moves east and low pressure troughing eventually pushes up against SoCal, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
That's today, and here's ten days out (model by NOAA MAG):
The onshore push should be rather strong by Wednesday the 12th, which should lead to cooler temps during the second half of the week. Inland areas will cool more dramatically whereas the coast will cool by just a few degrees. Meanwhile, marine layer should be present for the mornings but with burn-offs before noon.
Also, there is also a slight chance of precip showing up on the models Sunday the 9th into Monday the 10th for SD south county. Other than that, no other notable weather features are in the forecast right now.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Saturday the 8th) should see a burn off by late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday the 9th should see AM marine layer with burn-off midmorning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Monday the 10th should see AM marine layer with burn-off mid to late morning, then tropical clouds at times, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday the 11th should see AM marine layer with burn-off late morning, tropical clouds at times, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday the 12th should see AM marine layer with burn-off late morning. A fair amount of tropical cloud cover is likely. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Thursday the 13th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon, tropical clouds at times, and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Friday the 14th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon or early afternoon, tropical clouds at times, and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 10:00 AM were lightly onshore in most spots and should reach 15 mph onshore this afternoon.
Sunday the 9th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Monday the 10th should see AM light and variables but with a southerly element and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Tuesday the 11th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday, earlier if anything major changes before then), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
