SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 3/24/26 6:40 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 24th) is a small day for surf in SoCal. Moderately sized NW wind swell is due Thursday the 26th. A NW combo swell is becoming likely for Wednesday the 1st into Thursday the 2nd. Moderately sized southern hemi ground swell is being watched for the weekend of the 4th-5th. Another southern hemi could come ashore shortly after. Condition-wise: onshore flow in place; rain being monitored for next week; winds stay moderate; tide levels barely budge; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 16-18 seconds from 215° and 11 seconds from 315°.
Most breaks were running knee to waist high with occasional pluses at standout south facing spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.5-2.0'.
Tide levels aren't fluctuating much right now for daytime sessions. Today we have a -0.1' low around 9:00 AM, a 2.5' high around 5:00 PM that'll slide to a slackwater 2.5' low around 7:00 PM before increasing to 5' around 2:00 AM Wednesday.
Water temps were running 63-66° around most of SD and OC. LA was about 63-65°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 65° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 24th) we have a light mix of NW and SW swells in SoCal, including a New Zealand swell that may bring south facing breaks something more than waist max waves today. But overall things look small with much of the same Wednesday the 25th.
Thursday the 26th should see an increase in NW wind swell as surface high pressure off the PNW interacts with lower pressure southeast of SoCal (model by UQAM):
Today's models downgraded this with 30 mph max wind gusts in the outer waters west of Pt. Conception, keeping the bulk of the winds farther north. This now is expected to put west facing breaks into chest max wind swell waves Thursday the 26th, angled from the wind-swell-usual 300°+ with periods 7-10 seconds. This should back off to waist to chest at west facing breaks Friday the 27th.
Friday the 27th (late) into Saturday the 28th should see minor southern hemi ground swell from this system that formed near French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Some wind swell should linger Friday the 27th, but it should be greatly degraded Saturday the 28th when this small southern hemi peaks at waist high at south facing breaks. Swell should be angled from 200° with periods 15 seconds.
Sunday the 29th through Tuesday the 31st look like small surf days. Some minor WestPac and southern hemi pulses should come ashore, but most spots are looking at knee to waist high waves both days.
Wednesday the 1st into Thursday the 2nd remains on track for NW swell, but now models show less wind swell and more ground swell as this fetch forms off the west coast (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That would be in response to a stormy trough of low pressure that should slam the PNW and NorCal with rain chances for SoCal (see Weather section below). Right now, that fetch shows 20-25' seas, which would result in sets running upwards of head high at west facing breaks by Thursday the 2nd (building Wednesday the 1st). Swell would be angled from 300° with periods 12-14 seconds. This is a new feature today, and being a departure from earlier model runs there are a few question marks. One of those is the potential for wind swell by Friday the 3rd with models in wide disagreement on that to expect. I'll need more time to see how this develops in the coming days.
Saturday the 4th (building day) into Sunday the 5th (peak) will likely see southerly ground swell from this system breaking off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a day earlier than previous model runs, keeping size pretty much the same at chest high for south facing breaks by Sunday the 5th. The swell angle looks a bit more SSE from 175-180°. Periods would run 17 seconds. This is out on just the 3-day outlook so I'll be able to firm this up in my next report (Thursday).
Tuesday the 7th could see another round of southerly ground swell from a similar system, which would keep south facing breaks in chest high sets for a day or two, angled also from 175-180° with periods slightly shorter at 16 seconds. This needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support, then I can continue to watch the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 25th should run waist high at most breaks.
Thursday the 26th is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks from wind swell.
Friday the 27th looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 28th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Sunday the 29th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Monday the 30th looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 31st, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Wednesday the 1st, so far, is expected to see NW swell build during the day, starting out at waist to chest in the AM.
Thursday the 2nd, so far, looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Friday the 3rd, so far, looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 4th, so far, looks about chest max at west facing breaks and waist to chest at south facing spots.
Sunday the 5th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Monday the 6th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 7th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing spots
Wednesday the 8th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 9th, so far, looks about waist max everywhere.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 24th) high pressure centered near Baja remains moderate in strength, enough to heat up inland areas like Palm Springs well into the 90s, and many valley locations into the upper 80s. This has created the ever-familiar thermal inversion over coastal regions, acting like a thickening agent for the marine layer with air temps 10° warmer a mile above sea level than at the surface, trapping marine moisture into a thick ball of dull. Such will be the case for the next few days.
High pressure should weaken and move east this weekend. This should bring an onshore flow, but also weaken the inversion so marine layer may actually lighten up a bit this weekend at the coast.
Starting early next week, a couple low pressure troughs are expected to swing through the area, bringing heavy rain to the PNW and NorCal while brushing SoCal with precip (model from ECMWF):
That rain model shows the barest of precip hitting SoCal (red box) initially by Wednesday the 1st, before a somewhat heavier round of rain Thursday the 2nd. Models have been consistent on rain for the 1st, but they now differ run to run on when and how much. I'll need more time to see how this plays out.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 24th) should see AM marine layer, late morning or early afternoon burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday the 25th should see AM marine layer, burn-off by early afternoon, and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Thursday the 26th should see AM marine layer with a midmorning burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Friday the 27th should see AM marine layer with an early AM burn-off followed by high clouds, and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Saturday the 28th will likely see AM marine layer followed by a good deal of high clouds with max beach temps in the low 70s.
Sunday the 29th, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer with a quick burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Monday the 30th, so far, is expected to cloud-up quickly with clear skies hard to come by and max beach temps around 70°.
Tuesday the 31st could see rain approach SoCal.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere along the SoCal coast. Afternoon onshores should reach 10 mph.
Wednesday the 25th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 10 mph
Thursday the 26th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 10 mph
Friday the 27th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph
Saturday the 28th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
