SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 8/27/26 6:05 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 27th) we still have a good amount of swell from Iselle in SoCal, but this swell is on the way out. A good sized SW ground swell is due this weekend along with lesser NW wind swell. Tropical swell is likely by the middle of next week. A decent sized southern hemi swell is due Friday the 4th into Saturday the 5th. Tropical swell may follow. Moderate SW ground swell is being watched for the 9th-10th. And more tropical swell is on the long range. Condition-wise: low but non-zero precip chances today; higher precip chances by the middle of next week with even more on the long range; winds stronger than normal at times; a tidal swing is underway; and water temps have warmed further.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12 seconds from 175°.
Most south facing spots were running chest to head high with overhead pluses at standout spots, especially those that can work refraction through the San Diego Trough (page 111). There is also island shadowing around some spots, especially Malibu (page 81) Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist to chest.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.7-3.2'.
Tide levels are swinging wide from tonight's Full Moon. Today we have a -0.5' low around 4:00 AM, a 4.5' high around 10:00 AM, a 1.5' low around 3:30 PM, and a 6' high around 9:30 PM.
Water temps were running 72-75° around most of SD and OC, although Solana Beach reported 77° at one point yesterday. LA was mostly 70-74°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 73° this morning. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 27th) we still have a fair amount of swell from the Iselle-Julio Fujiwhara in SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That swell peaked yesterday and the trailing periods are arriving in SoCal today (page 41). This swell should fade to about chest max Friday the 28th.
Saturday the 29th (building early and quickly) into Sunday the 30th should see decent sized SW ground swell from this southern hemi system you might recall that took a high latitude course about five days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should put most south facing breaks into chest to head high sets, angled from 200° with periods 17 seconds.
Saturday the 29th and Sunday the 30th, along with southern hemi ground swell, we should also see light to moderate NW wind swell as a trough of low pressure (red circle) pushes south with a potent low (red arrow) passing through the PNW, creating a northerly pressure gradient between the trough and inland high pressure, circled in blue (model by NOAA MAG):
This is linked to a change in our weather and wind pattern, which I'll get to in the Weather section below. Swell-wise, this should create enough wind to gin-up chest high-ish wind swell at west facing breaks over the weekend with periods 7-10 seconds (angled from the usual ≥300°). Wind swell should back off Monday the 31st. Note also there is another tropical system on that model, Karina, which is the next topic of wave-worthy discussion.
Monday the 31st or Tuesday the 1st will likely see the next tropical swell in SoCal, but timing depends on what model to believe this morning with this GFS being the most bullish with earliest arrival and biggest waves (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
This should be named Karina shortly as all models agree this will be at least strong enough to gain tropical-storm status. But the 2- to 3-day models differ on either 30' seas (GFS model) or 20' seas (ECMWF and GEFS). If the bullish GFS has it right, then swell would arrive as early as Monday the 31st with size running 2' overhead at south facing breaks with periods 16 seconds. However, the model majority works out to chest+ surf at south facing breaks with arrival Tuesday the 1st into Wednesday the 2nd with periods 13 seconds. Swell should be angled from 175° either way. I'll be watching this closely over the next 48 hours and I'll confirm it in my Sunday report. If anything major deviates before then I'll issue my report earlier. You can sign up for the free email list above to be notified.
There is one other thing to watch when it comes to Karina: rain. Models favor some precip passing through SoCal Tuesday the 1st and/or Wednesday the 2nd from this storm, which I'll cover in the Weather section below.
Friday the 4th (building day) into Saturday the 5th (peak) is the next swell's ETA with good sized waves from this system near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That system is peaking right now with seas in the 25-30' range, which works out to chest+ sets at most south facing breaks, head high at standouts. Swell should be angled from 205° with periods 16-17 seconds. Although this swell should wane Sunday the 6th, more tropical swell could come ashore.
Sunday the 6th and/or Monday the 7th might see tropical swell from the system pointed to by the red arrow on this 9-day model (model by NOAA MAG):
This one would still get at least some northward guidance from the clockwise-spinning high pressure (blue circle), but face a cooler trough of low pressure to its north (red circle). Still, there is plenty of warm water from not just El Niño but an increasingly warmer marine heat wave (MHW) off Baja and SoCal (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
Combine that with the recent return of the MJO, and tropical storm potential increases significantly (see pages 85-88 in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud). So although that tropical system is quite a ways out on the long range, there's good reason to give it credence today.
BTW: The tropical system bringing potential swell on the 6th-7th could cause heavy rain, which I'll get to in the Weather section below.
Wednesday the 9th (building day) into Thursday the 10th could see SW ground swell from this New Zealand system on the 5-day (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that holds potential for chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 17 seconds.
Looking out further on the long range, the 2-week ensembles show high probability for more tropical storm formation with swell ETAs somewhere around the 9/14 timeframe. Once again, probability is high, but it's too early to start working the numbers to call timing and size. This needs a lot more monitoring but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 28th should run chest max at south facing spots.
Saturday the 29th is expected to run chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 30th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks and chest high at west facing spots.
Monday the 31st, so far, looks about chest max at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing breaks. However, there is potential for hurricane swell, which could run overhead at south facing spots. This puts a wrench in the forecast works for the following few days.
Tuesday the 1st, so far, holds potential for at least head high hurricane swell at south facing spots, but this needs more monitoring before making a call.
Wednesday the 2nd, so far, looks similar with the same question marks.
Thursday the 3rd, so far, is also too early to call based on the next tropical system.
Friday the 4th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 5th, so far, looks similar.
Sunday the 6th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots; however, there is another chance of seeing tropical swell in SoCal.
Weather Outlook:
Early this morning (Thursday the 27th) a grip of tropical clouds (cyan circle) with plenty of low-level moisture breaking off Iselle (red circle) was passing through SoCal, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
This is bringing a slight chance of precip today, mostly to VC and SB. Most of the rain should stay offshore as the precipitable moisture gets desiccated nearing land. Still, a spritz or two can't be ruled out today and this evening. The cloud cover over SoCal though is the bigger issue as it should stick around for most of the day. This could create enough solar blockage to result in cooling today, but that'd be tough. Last night had a strong LAX-BFL northern gradient (page 129), creating compressional heating (page 143). The constant influx of tropical moisture into SoCal has also put a wet heat blanket over SoCal, reducing the amount of evaporative cooling overnight, resulting in beach and inland temps well into the 70s before dawn this morning. But, relief is in sight.
The 4-Corners high that's been dominating the weather pattern will start moving east Saturday the 29th but more so Sunday the 30th as a trough of low pressure pushes south to SoCal, creating stronger winds and the subsequent wind swell this weekend. Here's that pattern again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
While this should increase the onshore flow for cooler weather, more tropical effects could follow from soon-to-be Karina, shown on the bottom of that model. Similar to this morning where an arm of Iselle's moisture reached into SoCal, so too could Karina, bringing precip on this model for early next week (model by NOAA MAG):
I popped a red box over SoCal so it doesn't get lost in the noise. As it stands right now, there is a fairly good chance of light precip anywhere in SoCal Tuesday the 1st into Wednesday the 2nd. Meanwhile, the northern trough of low pressure will continue to dig southward, increasing the onshore flow further for the second half of next week. But things get a bit wild on the models after that.
The tropical storm that could bring swell to SoCal on the 6th-7th is projected to move north to SoCal, shown here again to save your scroll (model by NOAA MAG):
Although low-pressure troughing (red circle) would be well in place, it might actually subsume that tropical storm, combining it with a low in the trough that, if it were to occur, would bring copious rain to SoCal Monday the 7th (model by NOAA MAG):
Those blue areas in SoCal represent inches of rain. This has happened before, and recently. You might recall Hillary in August 2023, which brought 3" of rain to downtown LA, and over 11" in the mountains. So this isn't unprecedented — just rare. This obviously needs a lot more monitoring though.
Last thing to note before breaking down the day-to-day is that the marine layer will be minimal through the forecast. The thermal inversion is weak thanks to very warm surface temps at the coast, and the influx of tropical moisture tends to inhibit marine layer development.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 27th) should see tropical clouds throughout the day with light precip possible, especially north of LA. Max beach temps should reach the low 80s.
Friday the 28th should see little to AM marine layer with tropical clouds at times. Beach max temps should reach the low 80s.
Saturday the 29th should see little to no marine layer. Beach max temps should reach the upper 70s.
Sunday the 30th should see little to no AM marine layer. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Monday the 31st should see a bit more marine layer with a midmorning burn-off and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday the 1st should see little to no marine layer, tropical clouds at times, and a slight chance of precip. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variables most everywhere with a slight southerly element in many spots. Afternoon onshores should run 7-11 mph.
Friday the 28th is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Saturday the 29th should see AM light and variables picking up by noon to 10 mph, increasing to 15 mph by mid afternoon. LA north could see strong winds in the afternoon to 20 mph.
Sunday the 30th should see AM light and variables picking up by noon to 10 mph, increasing to 15 mph by mid afternoon. LA north could see strong winds in the afternoon to 20 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
