SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 6/16/26 5:45 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 16th) long-period SW ground swell is filling into SoCal and will peak tomorrow. Moderate SW ground swell builds this weekend. A decent sized SW ground swell is due Wednesday the 24th. Moderate southern hemi swell is becoming likely for the 27th-28th. And another is being watched for the 30th. Condition-wise: June Gloom pattern in place; winds stay moderate but trend onshore; a tidal swing is underway; water temps are fair; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 17 seconds from 185° and 20-22 seconds from 210°.
Most south facing spots were running chest to head high on the better sets but pluses are possible throughout the day from forerunners (page 43). West facing breaks were mostly waist to chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.3-3.5'.
Tide levels are swinging wide from Sunday's New Moon. Today we have a -2' low around 5:30 AM, a 4' high around noon, a 2' low around 4:30 PM, and a 7' high around 11:00 PM.
Water temps were running 67-70° around most of SD yesterday. OC was varied with Huntington Beach reporting 62° yesterday, Newport was 61°, and San Clemente Pier reported 64°. LA was mostly 64-66°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 64° last night. SB Harbor reported 64° as well.
Hazard Warnings: Southern hemisphere ground swell continues to increase the risk of rip currents, especially at south facing breaks and especially during the outgoing tides. The extreme high tides are compounding the risk of coastal flooding as well. The NWS has issued warnings as well for SB, VC, and LA here, and OC and SD here.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 16th) we're seeing the on-time arrival of the SW ground swell sent out way from this New Zealand system that formed about eight days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Today we're seeing the initial energy from when this system was moving east with a glancing blow of energy reaching SoCal from its initial angular spread (page 52). The high degree of loss from that distance means sets should be inconsistent today with average sets about chest to head high, but with surprise outsiders from forerunners. Wednesday the 17th should then see sets become more consistent, running head high to a foot overhead (but still with long wait times between sets). Swell should stay angled from 210-215° which, unlike direct southerly swells that provide better size south of LA from refraction through the San Diego Trough (page 111), today's swell angle means energy will channel better into areas north of OC (page 81). This puts the highest potential for pluses exceeding head high around the south facing breaks of LA, more so along the SW-facing portion starting around Pt. Dume northward into parts of VC.
After peaking Wednesday the 17th, this swell should back down to chest to head high at south facing spots Thursday the 18th, and then chest high Friday the 19th.
Saturday the 20th (building day) into Sunday the 21st (peak) should see SW ground swell from the first of these two low latitude storms that formed a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Saturday the 20th should start out with waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks for the dawn patrols, building quickly in the morning and throughout the day to its peak Sunday the 21st at a more consistent chest high. The system behind it should keep chest high waves going at south facing breaks Monday the 22nd, and then waist to chest Tuesday the 23rd. Swell should be angled from 210° with periods 15-16 seconds.
Wednesday the 24th should see the next SW ground swell from this system that recently drifted northward off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce chest high waves on the average sets at south facing breaks, but up to head high at standouts. Swell should be angled from 205° and periods 17-18 seconds. This swell should continue at chest to at times head high Thursday the 25th; and then chest high Friday the 26th.
Saturday the 27th (building day) into Sunday the 28th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system passing south of New Zealand on the 2-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's not a great course for SoCal swell, but with 35' seas it should produce chest max sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 18 seconds. This swell would likely continue Monday the 29th.
Tuesday the 30th could see decent sized SW ground swell from yet another New Zealand system, but with a much better course for SoCal swell (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Based on the 6-day models, that storm would whip up 40'+ seas, resulting in head high sets at SoCal's south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 19 seconds. It's a bit early to call that with confidence today, but all models are in agreement right now.
Looking out on the longer range, models continue to show signs of tropical swell for SoCal, but now delayed until 7/2 from a northward bound hurricane (green arrow), which could face some obstacles along the way (model by NOAA MAG):
While water temps are favorable on that storm's course, northward guidance for hurricanes in that region is often influenced by the clockwise spin of high pressure centered over Texas this time of year (blue arrows). That high is positioned a tad farther east than what would be ideal. But the bigger snag is a late-season trough of low pressure (red arrows) that would dive south toward SoCal. That low's counterclockwise spin often guides tropical storms back to the east, missing the SoCal swell window starting at the Cabo latitude (where the storm is currently shown). If the trough stays weak and farther north, then that would-be hurricane would have wave-worthy potential for SoCal. That's a lot to ask on a 300-hour-plus model, but I popped an optimistic yellow pin into my charts this morning nonetheless to see how it goes. And as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is critical to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 17th is expected to run head high to a foot overhead at south facing breaks, but sets may be inconsistent with long lulls between sets and fewer than normal waves per set.
Thursday the 18th looks about head high at south facing spots, but with the same inconsistency issue.
Friday the 19th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 20th looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 21st looks about chest+ at south facing breaks.
Monday the 22nd looks about chest max at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 23rd looks about waist to chest high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 24th is expected to run chest to at times head high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 25th, so far, looks about chest to at times head high at south facing spots.
Friday the 26th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 27th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 28th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks.
Monday the 29th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 30th, so far, holds potential for head high sets at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 1st also holds potential for head high sets at south facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 16th) seasonal June Gloom persists with some day-to-day fluctuations. Right now, weak high pressure is over the region, which will weaken as the week progresses. A trough of low pressure sags south into SoCal Friday the 19th through the weekend. While a thermal inversion (page 131) remains place to influence the marine layer, northerly outer water winds may scour out the marine layer in a timely manner this weekend, most likely Sunday the 21st.
High pressure should make a brief, weak comeback early next week before a hefty trough digs south late next week. That trough is the same one mentioned in the surf forecast above that could hinder guidance on the potential hurricane preceding the holiday weekend, shown here to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
Although the low would be positioned off the PNW, we can see the trough's isobars (thin curved lines) dipping very far south into Baja. If that transpires then we'd see one heck of an onshore flow in SoCal 6/29 through at least 7/2. However, if the pattern becomes more seasonal then the trough would stay farther north and the Texas high would be positioned a tad farther west. In that scenario, SoCal would see increased humidity, warmer air temps, and decently timed AM clearing — something common during July, more so August. Time will truly tell since this is so far out on the long range that it's essentially a coin toss — but one that earned a yellow pin in my charts this morning.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 16th) should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon or early afternoon with max beach temps in the upper 60s to around 70° max.
Wednesday the 17th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon or early afternoon and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday the 18th should see AM marine layer with burn-off early afternoon and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday the 19th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by early afternoon and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday the 20th should see AM marine layer. Marine layer may get scoured-out by late morning north of LA, but persist south of LA until noon or early afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday the 21st looks similar: AM marine layer scoured-out by late morning north of LA, but persisting south of LA until noon or early afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with an onshore element. Some spots were reporting winds 5-10 mph from the WSW early this morning. Onshore winds should pick up mid to late morning and run 15 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday the 17th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element, increase onshore mid to late morning, and then run 15 mph in the afternoon.
Thursday the 18th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Friday the 19th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Saturday the 20th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables increasing onshore by noon to 10 mph, and then 15-20 mph in the afternoon.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
