SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 4/28/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 28th) we have a mix of fading NW ground swell and background south swell in SoCal. Moderate yet spotty NW ground swell is due Thursday the 30th. Minor wind swell follows. Light southern hemi is due Sunday the 3rd into Monday the 4th. Decent sized NW ground swell is due by Tuesday the 5th. A moderate NW ground swell is being tracked for the 9th-10th. And light to moderate southern hemis could arrive a couple weeks from now. Condition-wise: rain chances possible next week; winds moderate but strong at times; tide levels are moderate; and water temps have cooled slightly in some spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 13 seconds from 295°, 13 seconds from 200°, and occasionally 17 seconds from 180°.
Most west facing breaks were running waist to chest high. Direct south facing spots were mostly knee to waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.7' (south facing) to 2.2' (west facing).
Tide levels are fair. Today we have a 4.5' high around 8:00 AM, a 0.6' low around 2:00 PM, and a 5.5' high around 8:30 PM.
Water temps were running 61-64° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 61° yesterday. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 55° this morning. Water temps have been slowly dropping the past few days, likely from upwelling from persistent winds in the outer waters.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 28th) NW ground swell from Sinlaku is fading as minor southern hemi remains in the background. This should back down Wednesday the 29th to waist max at most breaks.
Thursday the 30th should see spotty NW ground swell from this high-latitude system that crashed into the Aleutians a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30-35' seas on that less than ideal course, west facing breaks should see chest max waves but with long wait times (few waves per set and long lulls between sets). Swell should be angled from 310° and periods 17 seconds. Distant southern hemi swell from the Tasman Sea is also due Thursday the 30th, which should provide inconsistent waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 230° and periods 15 seconds. The NW swell should linger with inconsistent chest max waves at west facing breaks Friday the 1st, and then back off Saturday the 2nd.
Meanwhile, Thursday the 30th through Saturday the 2nd should see light NW wind swell in the mix as a gradient develops along the west coast from this pattern (model by UQAM):
While there isn't much going on at the upper levels, this wind model shows a strong surface high off the PNW that'd interact with a strong inland low (red arrows). I popped a white box over SoCal so it doesn't get lost in the wind barbs. Strongest winds would be off NorCal (yellow and brown areas), but this should be enough to put waist high wind swell waves in the mix at west facing breaks in SoCal Thursday the 30th through Saturday the 2nd. The Aleutian NW ground swell will be dominant at chest max Thursday the 30th and somewhat less so Friday the 1st — the wind swell will be more consistent, but smaller.
Sunday the 3rd (late) into Monday the 4th, as wind swell drops off, we should see light southern hemisphere ground swell from this storm that recently peaked southeast of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 25' seas from that position and course, SoCal's south facing breaks should see waist to at times chest high waves by Monday the 4th, angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. This should linger at waist high at south facing spots Tuesday the 5th through Thursday the 7th, however, west facing breaks will likely do better from the next swell north of the equator.
Monday the 4th (slow building day) into Tuesday the 5th should see NW ground swell from this system that should peak south of the Aleutians about 24 hours from now (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models have stayed the course with 30' seas, which from the position should result in chest+ waves at west facing breaks Tuesday the 5th, angled from 305° and periods 16-17 seconds. However, its northward turn into the Gulf of Alaska means not all of its swell will be directed at SoCal, so once again swell could be inconsistent with fewer than normal waves per set and long lulls between sets. That's also just north of SoCal's magic mark of ≥300° so breaks with minimal westerly exposure may see less swell. In any case, this swell should continue Wednesday the 6th and back off to waist high Thursday the 7th.
BTW: Thursday the 7th should also see minor southern hemisphere ground swell so most breaks would be looking at waist high waves Thursday the 7th, and knee to waist Friday the 8th.
Saturday the 9th (building day) into Sunday the 10th (peak) could see NW ground swell from this high latitude system on the 6-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that works out to chest high waves at west facing breaks by Sunday the 10th, angled from 305° and periods 16 seconds. Minor southern hemisphere ground swell is due then as well, which at waist high would be equal to or less than the NW wrap.
Monday the 11th could see the next SW ground swell from this low latitude storm skirting the ice pack around Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's just a waist high swell for south facing breaks, angled from 205° with periods 17 seconds. However, a second storm from that same position could bring swell Thursday the 14th; not just from that position, but with better size once it turns northward a few days later (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
The topmost fetch is the reform that could bring chest high waves to south facing breaks Thursday the 14th, angled from 180° and periods 17 seconds. The fetch below it would bring another swath of swell Friday the 15th. These are out on the long range models and need more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to watch the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential right now to keep it alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 29th looks about waist max everywhere.
Thursday the 30th is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks but with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing breaks look about waist high.
Friday the 1st should run chest max at west facing breaks, but with once again highly inconsistent sets. South facing spots look about waist max.
Saturday the 2nd looks about waist high at most breaks.
Sunday the 3rd looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Monday the 4th looks about waist high at most breaks, but with occasional chest high pluses at standout south facing spots.
Tuesday the 5th should see chest high sets at west facing breaks, although spotty. South facing breaks look about waist to at times chest high.
Wednesday the 6th, so far, looks about chest max at west facing breaks and waist max at south facing spots.
Thursday the 7th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Friday the 8th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Saturday the 9th into Sunday the 10th could see moderate NW ground swell fill into SoCal...more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 28th) a weak trough of low pressure is passing to the north of SoCal as a weak cut-off low meanders off the SoCal coast. The result is an onshore flow for a few days, but pretty much absent of marine layer as cold air aloft is preventing any thermal inversion from forming, allowing marine moisture at the surface to rise and dissipate. That changes Friday as upper air warms a bit, allowing marine layer to take hold, but nothing severe (at first) as springtime northerly winds should help scour that out sometime in the morning. In fact, it might be rather breezy Thursday the 30th in response to that wind-swell pattern noted above, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by UQAM):
That PNW surface high and inland surface low will crank up the wind machine, especially in the outer waters, which could also cool water temps by the end of the week from upwelling. It's a fairly typical springtime pattern for SoCal: cool air, northerly winds, and short-lived marine layer in the mornings Thursday the 30th through Saturday the 2nd.
Sunday the 3rd looks like an in-between day as models continue to bandy about possible precip Monday the 4th and/or Tuesday the 5th from this cut-off low approaching SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
The GFS model has changed course today showing no rain at all. The ECMWF shows a fair amount of rain and the CMC model splits the middle with light, spotty showers. Timing and amounts are expectedly far apart as cut-off lows like that are notoriously unpredictable this far out. Given the state of recent rain events, I'd put this in a low probability category for now, but leave a yellow pin in the charts to see how it goes over the next few days.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 28th) should be mostly sunny with max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 29th looks fairly clear with little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Thursday the 30th could see drizzle in the early AM at some spots, mostly south of LA. Otherwise, a thin marine layer should dissipate early. Beach max temps should reach the mid 60s.
Friday the 1st should see AM marine layer with a mid AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Saturday the 2nd is expected to see AM marine layer with a mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday the 3rd, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer with a burn-off around noon or early afternoon and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Monday the 4th, so far, is expected to cloud-up. Models are split on whether we'd see rain. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should reach 15 mph.
Wednesday the 29th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Thursday the 30th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 15 mph, stronger mid afternoon to 20 mph.
Friday the 1st, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Saturday the 2nd, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Sunday the 3rd, so far, is expected to see onshores pick up early, reaching 15 mph by noon and up to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
