SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 8/20/26 5:35 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 20th) we have moderately sized, yet fading southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal with minimal NW wind swell. A moderate SW ground swell is due Sunday the 23rd, lasting for a few days. Hurricane swell got an upgrade for the second half of next week. Good sized SW ground swell is likely over the weekend of the 29th-30th. Sizable hurricane swell potential remains on the extended long range for the 9/2-9/3 timeframe. Moderate southern hemi could follow. Condition-wise: fair weather ahead; winds pick up over the next few days; tide levels have evened out; and water temps have warmed in some spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 200° and 6-8 seconds from 320°.
Most south facing spots were running waist to chest high. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5-6'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.1-3.2' with southern hemisphere ground swell measuring 2.1' on the spectrum.
Tide levels are moderate and slow moving today. Wednesday saw a 1.5' low before midnight, which will slowly rise all day today, eventually reaching a 4.6' high around 4:00 PM. We'll then see a 1' low around midnight.
Water temps were running 69-72° around most of SD and OC. LA was similar, although Hermosa reported 74° yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 71-74° over the past 24 hours. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 69° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 20th) size is starting to decline from the SW ground swell that peaked yesterday in SoCal from this system that was near New Zealand almost two weeks ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Size should drop further Friday the 21st to about waist max at south facing spots. Wind swell, meanwhile, should remain minimal and stay minimal through the forecast.
Saturday the 22nd (building day) into Sunday the 23rd (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system that took a favorable northward course off Antarctica about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's a great course but its seas topped out at just 25'. Most south facing breaks are looking at waist to chest high sets by Sunday the 23rd (smaller Saturday the 22nd). Swell should be angled from 195° and periods 15 seconds. Another fetch running behind that system should keep waist to chest high waves going Monday the 24th and Tuesday the 25th.
Wednesday the 26th (building late Tuesday the 25th?) is back in the game for potential hurricane swell in SoCal. Models have waffled on this for the past few days and they're still not aligned. However, most models are upgrading this on the 4-day outlook with this GFS model being the most bullish (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
This storm would be named Iselle. If the GFS has it right, then seas would reach 35', which works out to sets running head high to a foot or so overhead at south facing breaks, angled from 185° and periods as high as 17 seconds. But the ECMWF and various ensemble models show 20' max seas, which works out to waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks with periods 13 seconds, and a slightly later arrival. Being just four days out puts this well within the realm of possibility yet models are too far apart to make a call with confidence. I will call it either way in my next report (Sunday the 23rd).
Saturday the 29th (building early and quickly) into Sunday the 30th should see decent sized southern hemisphere ground swell as the 2-day models continue to agree on this southern hemi system taking a high latitude course northward (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should put most south facing breaks into chest to head high sets, angled from 200° with periods 17 seconds. This swell will likely back off to chest max Monday the 31st and waist to chest Tuesday the 1st.
Wednesday the 2nd (late) into Thursday the 3rd (peak?) remains on track for the next hurricane swell in SoCal as the extended long range models have upgraded this storm on the 13-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
It's a bit hard to believe, but that model's purple core represents 45' seas. That's essentially unheard of for hurricanes in the eastern Pacific, which raises doubts. But if that were to be the case, then size would easily run DOH, and possibly upwards of TOH at breaks that can work a 160-165° swell angle (page 45). That's a tough angle for many spots in SoCal, so other south facing spots would pick up diffracted swell (page 77) running DOH max. Being almost two weeks out might seem like a fools errand to forecast, but there are reasons to take this seriously enough to push an optimistic red pin in my charts this morning.
As you may recall from my reports the past few weeks, the beginning of September remains on track for increased hurricane potential as the MJO returns (see pages 85-88 in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud). With warmer than normal waters from El Niño and a marine heat wave off Mexico, Baja, and SoCal, any tropical storms that do form will have plenty of fuel and a less abated path to their north. So climate-wise, all the ingredients come together by September, which boosts confidence on the potential hurricane swell for 9/2-9/3. But this needs much more monitoring.
Friday the 4th (building day) into Saturday the 5th, hurricane swell aside, we could see SW ground swell from this system on the 6-day models near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Based on that 6-day model, south facing breaks would be looking at chest high sets, angled from 210° and periods 16 seconds. But if the potential hurricane swell for 9/3 develops as models show today, then Friday the 4th and Saturday the 5th would have much bigger surf, overshadowing that New Zealand southern hemi.
All of this needs a lot more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 21st looks about waist high at most spots.
Saturday the 22nd should see southern hemi swell fill in, starting out at waist high early at south facing breaks, building later in the day.
Sunday the 23rd looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Monday the 24th looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 25th looks about chest max at south facing spots; however, there is a chance that hurricane swell could build late in the day, at least forerunners (page 43).
Wednesday the 26th, so far, holds potential for hurricane swell. Size estimates for south facing breaks are at head high+ at the top end but some models show waist to chest. I'll have an update on this in my Sunday report.
Thursday the 27th, so far, looks similar, and with the same question marks on hurricane swell.
Friday the 28th, so far, could also be affected by hurricane swell, which would still run upwards of head high on the top-end models, smaller on the lower end models. This too needs more time and I'll have an update in my Sunday report.
Saturday the 29th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks, mostly from southern hemi ground swell.
Sunday the 30th, so far, could see chest to head high sets at south facing breaks.
Monday the 31st, so far, looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 1st, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 2nd and/or Thursday the 3rd could see a much more potent hurricane swell in SoCal with DOH+ potential. This needs much more monitoring and I'll have an update in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 20th) through the first half of next week should see very little day-to-day change along the coast when it comes to weather, but there will be some issues with wind. Right now, high pressure remains parked near the 4-Corners and will wobble around there and western Texas through the first half of next week, stretching into SoCal. But this high will continually butt-up against low pressure sitting off the west coast, placing a pressure gradient between the two. That gradient will strengthen northerly winds along the west coast starting this weekend into early next week, which I'll break down in the Wind section below. These winds will also affect beach weather as they will help to scour-out AM marine layer early. Marine layer may also be diminished over the next few days as the inversion weakens slightly (see illustration on page 134). The only potential snag is if the northerly winds, especially early next week, stir up a coastal eddy (page 135), which could thicken up the marine layer a bit.
Looking out further on the SoCal weather horizon, no earth-shattering changes are expected. Some low pressure troughing may increase the onshore flow some days late next week, but it's another exercise in hair-splitting with no discernable day-to-day differences along the coast.
However, one thing worth watching is tropical moisture potential into SoCal from the hurricanes in the surf forecast (8/26 and 9/3). Higher humidities are likely, but the storm tracks so far aren't conducive for precip at the SoCal coast — inland yes, coast not so much. However, the North American Ensemble (NAEFS) model shows rain potential in SoCal Saturday the 29th. No other model or ensemble agrees with that, so the NAEFS would count as an outlier in the extreme low-probability bucket today.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 20th) should see burn-off mid to late morning, scattered high clouds off and on throughout the day, and beach max temps in the mid 70s.
Friday the 21st should see AM marine layer, burn-off mid to late morning, some scattered high clouds, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Saturday the 22nd should see AM marine layer, mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Sunday the 23rd should see AM marine layer, early to mid AM burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Monday the 24th should see a thin AM marine layer, early burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Tuesday the 25th should see a thin AM marine layer, early burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light to calm most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should reach 8-12 mph.
Friday the 21st should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Saturday the 22nd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Sunday the 23rd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Monday the 24th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and onshores mid afternoon 15-20 mph.
Tuesday the 25th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and onshores mid afternoon 15-20 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
