SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 6/28/26 6:40 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 28th) we have a mix of moderate southern hemisphere ground swell and NW wind swell in SoCal. Light to moderate SW ground swell is due by Wednesday the 1st, followed by light southern hemis for the 3rd-6th. A better sized SW ground swell is due by Wednesday the 8th, which should last a few days. Condition-wise: fair weather this week with better clearing by the weekend; winds problematic at times; tide levels are swinging wider; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15-17 seconds from 200° and 7 seconds from 315°.
Most south facing spots were running chest high. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6-9'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.7' (south facing) to 3.6' (west facing).
Tide levels are swinging wider as we approach a Full Moon Monday the 29th. Today we have a -0.5' low around 4:00 AM, a 3.5' high around 10:30 AM, a 2.5' low around 2:30 PM, and a 6' high around 9:00 PM.
Water temps were unavailable for most nearshore locations due to an NWS outage this morning, and Stearns Wharf was also offline (as were other sites like ECMWF models). Most nearshore buoys though were hovering around 64-66°.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 28th) we're seeing NW ground swell from this system you might recall from earlier reports that passed south of New Zealand about 10 days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
We're also seeing NW wind swell from winds kicked up by this trough of low pressure that's also brought cooler weather to SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Winds are forecast to increase later today with wind swell peaking in SoCal Monday the 29th. Angled so steep from SoCal, most of that wind swell will skirt past the islands with only a fraction diffracting into the SoCal bight (page 77). All told, Monday the 29th looks like a chest max day at most breaks with a 50-50 mix of SW ground swell and NW wind swell. Both swells should fade Tuesday the 30th to about waist high at most spots.
Tuesday the 30th (late) into Wednesday the 1st (peak) should see moderately sized southern hemisphere ground swell from these two storms that peaked last week (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
ETA into SoCal is the same for both as storm #1, although being farther away, had longer periods than storm #2 (page 41). All told, south facing breaks should see chest high sets by Wednesday the 1st (building late Tuesday the 30th) with swell angled from 190-210° and periods 17-18 seconds. But with neither storm taking a northerly course while staying in low latitudes, there will likely be fewer than normal waves per set and longer than normal lulls between sets.
Thursday the 2nd (building day) into Friday the 3rd should see light to moderate SW ground swell from this system that was hugging the ice pack a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Its initial easterly course from that extreme low latitude got very little improvement once tracking northeastward as its seas weakened. This should produce chest max sets at south facing breaks by Friday the 3rd, angled from 200° with periods 18 seconds. This swell should continue Saturday the 4th with similar size. A lower latitude storm that formed behind it should keep waist to at times chest high waves going at south facing breaks Sunday the 5th and Monday the 6th.
Tuesday the 7th (building quickly) into Wednesday the 8th should see SW ground swell from this system that peaked this morning near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This should have moderate loss from its angular spread (page 52), so running the numbers this morning works out to chest+ swell at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. Standouts may see some head high pluses out of this. This swell should continue Thursday the 9th at chest+, along with other activity that is stirring up to its east, which also should produce chest high-ish sets at south facing breaks. Size should hover around chest high at south facing spots Friday the 10th and Saturday the 11th.
Sunday the 12th could be the start of a temporary small spell for SoCal surf as no major swell-making storms are showing up on the longer range. There are plenty of storms that hold potential in the southern hemisphere and tropics on the extended models, but none that show any impressive cyclonic activity — at least not yet. One feature though on the 7-day models is this activity in the Tasman Sea, which holds potential for light to moderate SW ground swell in SoCal on the 16th (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a good 7,400 miles from SoCal, and during the swell's 11-day sojourn to SoCal a good deal of energy is lost. A good amount of energy also gets soaked up by numerous islands in the South Pacific from these kinds of Tasman swells, but they do angle swell from a wider SW angle of 230°. Early numbers point to waist to maybe chest high waves at south facing breaks with periods 16 seconds. It's a desperate search for rays of surfable hope on the long range horizon, but we all know that the Pacific never stays quiet for long and needs constant monitoring. And as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 29th looks about waist to chest high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 30th is expected to run chest max at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 1st should run chest max at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 2nd looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Friday the 3rd looks about chest max at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing spots.
Saturday the 4th looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 5th looks about waist high at south facing breaks with occasional chest high pluses. West facing breaks should run waist high.
Monday the 6th, so far, looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 7th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 8th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing spots.
Thursday the 9th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks.
Friday the 10th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 12th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 28th) a robust trough of low pressure continues to sag into SoCal and will stick around to varying degrees through Thursday the 2nd here's what that trough (circled in red) looks like this morning (model by NOAA MAG):
While that trough is increasing the onshore flow into SoCal, northerly winds in the outer waters — creating the wind swell — should disrupt the morning marine layer, at least from LA north where burn-offs should happen mid to late morning, sticking around longer farther south. Also, the thermal inversion is very weak over SoCal right now so there's less influence on that to keep the marine layer in place (page 131). Yet we also had a coastal eddy last night, which is evident by southerly winds early this morning (page 135). So basically it's a mixed bag of marine layer elements that should make for earlier burn-offs north of LA than farther south over the next few days. During this time, beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.
This pattern should transition Friday the 3rd with the weekend of the 4th-5th seeing a large dome of high pressure over much of the U.S., extending into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
This should make for warmer beach max temps near 70° this coming weekend, possibly the low 70s from LA south. Marine layer will likely dissipate mid morning Friday the 3rd through Sunday the 5th, although some models show an inversion gaining strength over the weekend that could keep the marine layer in place longer.
The tough part right with the forecast this morning is that not only is the NWS having an outage, but the ECMWF is too. This is limiting what models are available this morning, but there's enough consensus on other models (like GFS and CMC) to get a good idea of what to expect. I'm sure these outages will be resolved by the time I do my next report on Tuesday so I can narrow in further on what to expect for the holiday weekend.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 28th) should see marine layer dissipate late morning north of LA and by early afternoon farther south. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.
Monday the 29th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid to late morning (earliest north of LA) and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Tuesday the 30th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by late morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Wednesday the 1st should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by late morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Thursday the 2nd should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by mid morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Friday the 3rd will likely see AM marine layer with a burn-off by mid morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were lightly onshore in most spots 3-8 mph with a southerly element. Onshores should pick up later this morning, reaching 8-12 mph by noon, and then 15+ mph by early afternoon. Winds may be stronger by mid afternoon north of LA.
Monday the 29th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element, picking up onshore throughout the morning, reaching 15 mph by noon and up to 20 mph early to mid afternoon.
Tuesday the 30th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Wednesday the 1st should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
