SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Sunday 7/12/26 7:00 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 12th) we have mostly light to moderate SW ground swell in SoCal. Although minor swells are on tap through Thursday the 16th, there is potential for major hurricane swell by the weekend. Another hurricane swell is being watched for the weekend of the 25th. Southern hemisphere ground swell could come ashore then too. And long-period southern hemi is being watched for the 28th. Condition-wise: tropical heatwave on tap this week; precip chances for some areas; winds stay moderate for the most part; a tidal swing is underway; and water temps are up in many spots.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 185°.

Most south facing breaks were running waist to chest high. Direct west facing spots were mostly waist max.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 4'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2'.

Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a New Moon Tuesday the 14th. Today we had a -1.5' low around 3:00 AM. This will rise to a 3.5' high around 9:30 AM and drop to a 2.5' low around 2:00 PM. The tide will then rise to about 7' around 8:00 PM. This extreme high tide could cause coastal flooding and the NWS has issued warnings as well for SB, VC, and LA here, and OC and SD here.

Water temps were running 71-74° around most of SD. OC was mostly 67-69° but the usually-warmer San Clemente Pier reported 71° yesterday. LA was mostly 67-71°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° last night but had been running 68° a few hours prior. In SB, current USCG and Stearns Wharf readings were unavailable but the channel was running 65° this morning.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 12th) a pattern has formed in the eastern Pacific that is favoring tropical surf and weather for SoCal. This pattern is August-like in many ways but accentuated by stronger than normal elements at play, including El Niño and localized marine heat waves near our area. These are the headlines in this morning's forecast as two potentially major hurricanes could bring very sizable surf to SoCal, each hitting over busy beach weekends. Meanwhile, our weather is being affected by the same tropical pattern and will be for a while. But first things first.

Today we're seeing light to moderate SW ground swell in SoCal from this system that drifted north off Antarctica south of Pitcairn about ten days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

With just 25' seas that should produce waist to at times chest high waves at south facing breaks today and Monday the 13th, angled from 185° and periods 15-16 seconds. Wind swell is minimal and will only pick up a bit in a couple days (more on that in a sec).

In any case, smaller surf is expected Tuesday the 14th, about waist max everywhere.

Wednesday the 15th through Friday the 17th should see an ever-so-slight increase in NW wind swell. Winds look minor with fetch barely reaching 9' west of the Channel Islands. West facing breaks can expect waist high waves out of this.

Thursday the 16th should see spotty, intermittent SW ground swell from this storm you might recall from last week's reports that traveled northeast in the Tasman Sea (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

Being 7,400 miles from SoCal means a good deal of energy was lost from distance decay, along with energy soaked up by numerous islands in the South Pacific. This should result in waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks but with very long lulls between sets and very few waves per set. Long wait times should be expected. Swell should be angled from 230° with periods 15 seconds.

Friday the 17th (by midafternoon) into Saturday the 18th (peak) could see sizable hurricane swell. Models have pretty much stayed the course from last week's runs but there are now two schools of thought on what to expect, shown here on the 5-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

The NFCENS model says this hurricane — which could be named Elida — would pump up 40' seas while taking a northerly course off the coast of Baja, getting rather close to SoCal. The GFS model shows peak seas reaching 30-35' on a more NW'erly course. In the case of the NFCENS, south facing breaks that can work a 160-165° swell angle would easily see 15' face heights (TOH) with periods 19 seconds — other south facing breaks would top out at DOH max. The GFS model works out to sets running 2' overhead at most south facing breaks, angled from 175° and periods 17 seconds. In either case, that storm's proximity means there'll be shorter periods in the mix (see pages 160-161) and consistency would be very high. This swell would likely drop by about 20% Sunday the 19th, more so Monday the 20th. The peak of the hurricane should happen by Friday so I'll be watching this one closely this week.

BTW, this hurricane has potential for much bigger waves at some standouts south of LA as its swell angle would fall within the range that favors the San Diego Trough (see page 111 in Wave by Wave). Breaks and beaches affected by that refraction could see much bigger surf.

Another quick note on this hurricane: The automated charts here on WaveCast (and other forecasting sites) use the GFS-WAVE data to create those charts. Since the GFS model is the less potent of the two scenarios this morning, wave size is being shown conservatively on my automated charts at a couple feet overhead. But the GFS is only one of a number of models so the automated charts show just one of a few scenarios. The NFCENS is the high end scenario and other models fall somewhere in between. Thus, the TOH scenario is about a 30% chance; a couple feet overhead is a 30% chance; and in-between scenarios are a 40% chance.

Tuesday the 21st should see moderate southern hemisphere ground swell from this system on the 24-hour models near French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

With 30' seas on that course, south facing breaks are looking at chest high sets with swell angled from 200° and periods 16-17 seconds. Hurricane swell is a wildcard for the 21st but so far it looks like hurricane swell would diminish by the time this southern hemi comes ashore. In either case, the southern hemi could continue at chest high Wednesday the 24th, and then chest max Thursday the 23rd.

Friday the 24th (building day?) into Saturday the 25th (peak?) could see another round of strong hurricane swell as the 11-day models today have stayed the course from last week's extended outlook showing this potent storm (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

That's very far out on the long range. But running the numbers this morning with 35' seas works out to 3-4' overhead at south facing breaks, angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds. But wait...there's more...

Saturday the 25th (building day) into Sunday the 26th (peak) could see long-period SW ground swell from this system hugging the low latitudes on the 5-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

That's an impressive fetch with 40-45' seas but on a less-than-favorable easterly course. So far, this works out to chest+ sets at south facing breaks with head high pluses at standouts, angled from 215° and periods 20 seconds. Hurricane swell could produce bigger sets, and there's a high chance for rogue wave pluses from constructive interference (see page 84) .

Tuesday the 28th could see decent sized southern hemi swell from this system on the 8-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

That's a better course for SoCal with size calculations coming in at head high for south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 18 seconds. But this needs much more monitoring over the coming days.

Lastly, before getting to the Day-to-Day, Weather, and Wind sections: In case you missed it from my last report there was an official update by NOAA on the state of El Niño. El Niño is well underway now and there is an 81% chance it could become a "very strong" El Niño later this year, possibly becoming one of the strongest on record (model from NOAA CPC)

The thick dashed line shows the model mean, topping out slightly above 2°C anomalous for the winter. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 was 2.4°C, which is where the current model spread tops out. As for chance, we're already well into El Niño, evident by the telltale tongue of warm water extending off Peru (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

Along with El Niño's warming waters we also have two Marine Heat Waves (MHWs) with one in our hurricane swell window, thus providing fuel and guidance for the hurricane swells in the forecast. Strong El Niños tend to lessen southern hemisphere ground swell formation as it can strengthen the jetstream close to the pole. However, it increases the chances for hurricane swells during our summer and early fall. After that, the potential for strong NW swells increases as we approach the winter. High rain amounts become likely this coming winter too (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud).

The Pacific is hyperactive right now with a lot to monitor in the coming days, weeks and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep this report alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Monday the 13th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks.

Tuesday the 14th looks about waist high at south facing spots.

Wednesday the 15th looks about waist high at most spots.

Thursday the 16th looks about waist high at south facing spots with rare chest high pluses. West facing breaks should run waist high.

Friday the 17th, so far, is expected to see hurricane swell build during the day.

Saturday the 18th, so far, is expected to see hurricane swell. Size ranges anywhere from a couple feet overhead to to DOH at south facing breaks, depending on the model.

Sunday the 19th, so far, is expected to see strong hurricane swell with a 20% decrease in size from Saturday the 18th.

Monday the 20th, so far, looks about head high max at south facing breaks.

Tuesday the 21st, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.

Wednesday the 22nd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.

Thursday the 23rd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.

Friday the 24th may see the next hurricane swell build into SoCal...more on that in my next report.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 12th) this tropical heatwave pattern has developed across the American West, which will affect SoCal weather for a while (model by NOAA MAG):

A strong and broad high pressure system centered across the U.S. is teasing the 600dm heatwave mark (when oppressive heat takes hold). We're essentially there now at 599dm. But the thing affecting SoCal even more is the tropical flow as the high's clockwise spin is stirring plenty of tropical moisture into SoCal. Enough moisture made it ashore to cause rain this morning across Pt. Conception (from Gaviota west) and rain was teasing the coast along the SD/MX border. Mountains and some far inland spots were picking up precip blips here and there as well.

More precip is possible tonight into early morning Monday the 13th in SD and maybe even OC, but not likely farther north. Another shot of tropical precip is showing up for late Thursday the 16th into Friday the 17th for SD as well.

Marine layer has become a non-issue this week as the thermal inversion (page 131) is almost nil thanks to warm waters off the coast and overnight low temps at the surface kept warmer from the tropical flow's moisture blanket. So if any marine layer does develop at all this week it should dissipate very quickly. There's also no significant NW winds to gin-up a coastal eddy, so there's little to no support for any marine layer development.

High pressure remains in place all week with some jostling in position at times. In fact, by Wednesday the 17th the high should position itself just right for a northerly offshore gradient across SoCal, measuring up to -3mb from the north to add compressional heating (page 143). This should really warm things up for the second half of the week.

There will also be tropical clouds overhead at times some days in the forecast, but marine layer looks nil.

High pressure should temporarily weaken by Saturday the 18th (595dm) but then crank up to full volume by Monday the 20th, reaching 600dm. So after a day or two of slight cooling over the weekend of the 18th-19th, another heatwave may ensue.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Sunday the 12th) should see tropical clouds stream overhead for a good part of the day. Beach max temps should reach the low 70s. There is a chance for precip tonight in SD and OC.

Monday the 13th should see a very thin marine layer with a very early burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.

Tuesday the 14th should see little to no marine layer with tropical clouds at times and max beach temps in the mid 70s.

Wednesday the 15th should see little to no marine layer with max beach temps in the upper 70s, possibly 80° in some spots.

Thursday the 16th should see little to no marine layer with max beach temps in the upper 70s, possibly 80° in some spots. There is a chance for precip in SD late in the day. Tropical clouds should drift overhead in most spots late in the day.

Friday the 17th should see a good deal of tropical clouds cover. There is a chance for precip around SD. Max beach temps should run in the mid to upper 70s.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 7:00 AM were calm almost everywhere along the coast. Onshores are expected this afternoon 7-11 mph.

Monday the 13th should see calm winds in the morning and afternoon onshores 7-11 mph.

Tuesday the 14th should see AM light and variables, onshores by noon 5-10 mph, and onshore in the afternoon 10-15 mph.

Wednesday the 15th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.

 

Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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