SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 9/27/26 6:15 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 27th) swell from Odalys has reached its peak in SoCal. Swell from Polo arrives tomorrow. NW swells come into the mix over the next couple days. A decent sized southern hemisphere ground swell is being watched for late next week, followed by possible NW ground swell. Condition-wise: Polo to affect weather and winds over the next couple days before a shift later in the week; a tidal swing is underway; water temps are above normal; and warnings and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 11-13 seconds from 200° and 10 seconds from 315°.
Most south facing breaks were running chest to head high with occasional pluses at standouts, mainly those working refraction from the San Diego Trough (page 111). West facing breaks were mostly waist to chest high, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.2-3.5'.
Tide levels are swinging wide from Saturday's Full Moon. This will further impact beach erosion potential during the high tide times over the next few days. Today we have a 0.7' low around 4:00 AM, a 6' high around 10:00 AM, a 0.2' low around 4:30 PM, and a 5' high around 10:30 PM.
Water temps were running 72-75° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 73° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 72° this morning.
Hazard Warnings: Swell from Odalys and stronger swell from Polo will create a number of hazards over the next couple days. Rip current risk will be elevated and rogue waves are highly likely. There will also be an elevated risk of further beach erosion and coastal flooding as we're in a tidal swing with high tides in the 6' range. The NWS has issued warnings as well. You can see the latest warnings and advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here. Caution is advised.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 27th) swell from Odalys has reached its peak in SoCal. Swell from Polo should arrive Monday the 28th, which I'll break down next. First though, I want to point out a couple things about Polo's forecast.
First, the automated forecast charts here on WaveCast (and possibly other forecasting sites) will show smaller waves than what we can expect. This is mainly due to the proximity of Polo with not enough distance — and thus time — for the storm's shorter periods to fall behind the longer periods. Since the nearshore data provided by NOAA uses the energy band with the highest density, that data reflects the shorter periods, which are not the max size for breaking waves (page 161).
The second issue with Polo is that it didn't make it very far into SoCal's swell window for hurricane swells, which we can see here when Polo peaked in our swell window around 8:00 PM Saturday night (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
SoCal's swell window for hurricanes starts around 110W longitude (the southern tip of Baja). SoCal is around 117W. So when Polo was around 113W at its peak, it barely reached into our swell window and only a portion of its swell was sent to SoCal. Swell that was sent to SoCal will be from a difficult angle that will vary wave size widely between south facing breaks. So here's how that should play out:
Monday the 28th around early to midmorning (8:00 AM by model estimates) should be the initial peak of Polo's swell in SoCal. Size should vary greatly, anywhere from head high to DOH at south facing spots, depending on each spot's exposure (page 161). Since swell will be angled from a steep 160°, standout breaks that can work a 155-160° angle (mostly OC) are looking at DOH sets. However, many SE exposed breaks that can work a 160-165° angle are looking at sets 2-4' overhead. Direct south facing breaks that work ≥175° at looking at sets running head high or slightly better.
NW wind swell should also be in the mix Monday the 28th, along with stronger than normal afternoon onshores as this hefty trough of low pressure (red circle) dives south into SoCal, interacting with Polo, pointed to by the blue arrow (model by NOAA MAG):
Onshores could pick up early Monday the 28th and become quite strong in the afternoon (see Wind section below). There's even a slight chance of precip near the US-MX border sometime between today into Monday the 28th (but dry elsewhere). As for wind swell, this should produce chest high wind swell waves at west facing breaks Monday, which will likely be equal to, or less than Polo's wrap. These winds will no doubt further increase rip current risk, and possibly add to coastal erosion as well.
Tuesday the 29th should see Polo's swell continue but fade somewhat in the afternoon as NW wind swell continues. But we'll also see two NW ground swells on Tuesday: the first is from Dujuan, which peaked in the Western Pacific a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Dujuan had 30-35' seas, which from that distance (about 4,200 nautical miles) and course should result in chest to head high sets at west facing breaks Tuesday the 29th, angled from 300-305° and periods 17 seconds. However, given that distance, sets should be sporadic with fewer than normal waves per set and long lulls between sets.
The second NW swell in the mix Tuesday the 29th will be from this recent development across the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Staying in high latitudes means we'll get a glancing blow from its angular spread (page 52). But with impressive 30' seas, it works out to chest high waves at west facing breaks, angled from 315° with periods 16 seconds.
So all told on Tuesday the 29th: south facing breaks should see similar size as Monday with the wide discrepancy in size mentioned earlier. West facing breaks should run chest to head high.
Wednesday the 30th should see Polo's swell back off with top spots running chest to head high, although pluses are possible, mostly at standouts that can work a 160° swell angle. NW ground swell should run chest high at west facing breaks with some head high pluses.
Thursday the 1st should see all of these swells back off further with about chest max waves everywhere. Smaller surf is on tap Friday the 2nd through Sunday the 4th as models keep the next hurricane out of our swell window, shown here on the 4-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Earlier model runs showed that storm crossing the 110W mark for SoCal swell, but that's not the case today. There are still a few more days to go on this, but no model right now shows this being surf-worthy for SoCal.
The NW ground swell for the 6th got a drastic downgrade on the models today so that's out. But there are other swells in the forecast.
Thursday the 8th (building day) into Friday the 9th (initial peak), into Saturday the 10th (maximum swell) will likely see SW ground swell from two, back-to-back storms in the southern hemisphere. Here's the first one (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's the initial swell that'd build Thursday the 8th into Friday the 9th with chest max sets at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 16 seconds. But it's this bigger system that needs more monitoring for peak swell Saturday the 10th (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With 40-45' seas on that course, south facing breaks would be looking at head high+ sets by Saturday the 10th, building Friday the 9th. Swell would be angled from 200° and periods 19 seconds. Saturday the 10th may also see NW swell in the mix from a WestPac system on the 7-day models. So far, that points to chest max waves at west facing breaks, but it's too early to call.
In any event, there's a lot to monitor right now. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 28th, by midmorning should see the bulk of Polo's swell. Breaks that can work a 155-160° swell angle (not many can, but think of standouts in OC especially) should run DOH. For breaks able to work a 160-165° angle, sets should run 2-4' overhead. For breaks that work ≥175°, head high + sets are expected. Swell may be inconsistent at some spots, but dangerous rogue waves are likely at times throughout the day.
Tuesday the 29th should see similar size/conditions for the morning with swell decreasing in the afternoon. West facing breaks, should run upwards of head high from NW ground swells and Polo's wrap.
Wednesday the 30th looks about chest to head high at south and west facing spots.
Thursday the 1st looks smaller, about chest high at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Friday the 2nd should run waist to chest at most spots.
Saturday the 3rd looks about waist high everywhere.
Sunday the 4th looks about waist high everywhere.
Monday the 5th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Tuesday the 6th, so far looks about waist high everywhere.
Wednesday the 7th, so far, should run waist+ at south facing breaks.
Thursday the 8th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Friday the 9th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 10th, so far, looks about head high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 27th) cloud cover is streaming into SoCal from not just Polo but also Odalys, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
I circled SoCal in red. Just to our north is a trough of low pressure that is helping to swirl that moisture into SoCal. That trough will also affect our weather and winds for the short term, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
Although bringing an onshore flow, that trough will stir in plenty of moisture to SoCal as it taps into the hurricanes' plumes. The trough will interact with Polo as well to gin up strong winds over the next couple days (see Wind section below). There is even a chance of light precip in SD south county today and Monday, although not many models show that reaching the coast (the ECMWF, btw, is bullish it will). All of this tropical moisture will inhibit marine layer development for the next few days, but there isn't really much of an inversion for the marine layer to work with anyways, given how warm the waters are near the coast (page 131).
Once the low pressure trough passes to the east in a few days, winds should subside and actually trend offshore as high pressure fills into the region. Gradient forecasts put early AM sessions at -2mb (page 131), and barely onshore in the afternoon Friday the 2nd and Saturday the 3rd. This should keep skies clear and warm temps too.
High pressure should weaken slightly starting Sunday the 4th but remain moderate for at least a few days after.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 27th) should have tropical clouds all day south of LA, but only in the morning north of LA. Max beach temps should reach the upper 70s. Some precip is possible in SD south county later in the day.
Monday the 28th should see minimal morning marine layer and some high clouds south of LA, concentrated mostly across SD. Some precip is possible in SD south county. Max beach temps should reach the mid 70s.
Tuesday the 29th should see little to no AM marine layer, no tropical clouds, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Wednesday the 30th should see little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the upper 70s to right around 80°.
Thursday the 1st should see AM marine layer, burn-off mid to late AM, and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Friday the 2nd should see AM marine layer with an early burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were calm in most spots. Onshores should pick up by noon to 10 mph, then run 15-20 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Monday the 28th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element, picking up midmorning to 10 mph, 15 mph by noon, and 20-25 mph by mid to late afternoon.
Tuesday the 29th should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph, turning onshore by noon, increasing to 15-20 mph mid to late afternoon.
Wednesday the 30th should see light AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores to about 10 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
