SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 7/16/26 6:45 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 16th) is a fairly small day for surf in SoCal but that will change by Sunday the 19th when swell from Elida comes ashore. Moderate southern hemi swell is due shortly after. Another hurricane swell is becoming likely for Thursday the 23rd. Moderate southern hemis are being watched for the 26th-29th. And another hurricane swell is being monitored for the end of the month. Condition-wise: fair seasonal weather in the forecast but there are precip chances for late next week; winds shift over the next couple days; the tide is swinging wide; and water temps are fair for this time of year.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 16 seconds from 230°, 13 seconds from 185°, and 9 seconds from 315°.
Most breaks were running waist high with occasional chest high pluses at standout west facing breaks, rarer at standout south facing spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.8-2.3'.
Tide levels are swinging wide from Tuesday's New Moon. Today we have a -1.5' low around 6:00 AM, a 4.5' high around noon, a 2' low around 5:30 PM, and a 6.5' high around 11:30 PM.
Water temps were running 70-72° around most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 68-70°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 66° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 66° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 16th) we have a minor mix of swell from a Tasman storm that formed a couple weeks ago along with earlier, fading SW ground swell. NW wind swell is in the mix too but all of this is on the small side and will get slightly smaller Friday the 17th.
While Saturday the 18th should start out with small swell in the morning, hurricane swell should build from Elida, peaking Sunday the 19th and Monday the 20th as that storm takes a decently positioned course with seas running 30-35' (model by NOAA MAG):
We're still a couple days out from Elida peaking in our swell window. If anything changes before my Sunday report then I'll work on my next report late Saturday and issue it then. At this point though confidence is high as models are well aligned with Elida pumping up 30-35' seas Friday and Saturday, which works out to surf running 2-4' overhead at many south facing breaks since the incoming angle will be around 180-190°. Periods should run as high as 17 seconds but the storm's proximity means we'll have other, shorter periods in the mix. This swell should peak in two bursts: one midday Sunday the 19th and another early morning Monday the 20th as this system wobbles on its course with varying strength along the way. This swell will likely drop to chest to head high Tuesday the 21st (something I'll confirm in my next report).
Tuesday the 21st, as hurricane lingers on its last leg, we should also see southern hemisphere ground swell fill in, peaking Wednesday the 22nd from this system that formed near French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30' seas on that course, south facing breaks are looking at chest high sets with swell angled from 200° and periods 16-17 seconds. So all told, with this southern hemi and fading hurricane swell, most south facing breaks are expected to run at least chest high Tuesday the 21st and then chest high Wednesday the 22nd. However, this is the time when the next hurricane swell could fill into SoCal.
Late Wednesday the 22nd, peaking Thursday the 23rd, we could see strong hurricane swell from this storm that is now on the 5-day models (model by NOAA MAG):
That has a bit more of a westerly course, but with 35'+ seas we'd still see a good deal of swell from that storm. Working the numbers this morning, size is coming in at 3-4' overhead at south facing breaks, angled from 185° and periods 18 seconds. Some models show bigger seas, but I've taken the conservative model mean. I'm sure models will align better by the time I do my next report. In any case, this swell would likely continue Friday the 24th with similar size, and then fade to head high Saturday the 25th.
Sunday the 26th will likely see moderate SW ground swell from this system that's been on the models this week hugging the low latitudes (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Size is coming in at chest high for south facing breaks but inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell would be angled from 210° and periods 19 seconds. Two other storms behind it could keep chest high waves going at south facing spots through Wednesday the 29th, although those are further out on the long range right now.
Thursday the 30th remains on track (so far) as the next ETA for potential hurricane swell as models today continue to show this system from a couple days ago with no change in course or strength, similar to Elida's (model by NOAA MAG):
That's still too far out to call but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 17th looks about waist high everywhere.
Saturday the 18th should start out with waist high waves everywhere for the dawn patrols but hurricane swell is likely in the evening, so forerunner rogue waves could occur throughout the day.
Sunday the 19th is expected to run 2-4' overhead at south facing breaks from hurricane swell.
Monday the 20th will likely also run 2-4' overhead at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 21st, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 22nd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks; however, there is a chance for hurricane swell to fill in late in the day.
Thursday the 23rd, so far, looks about 3-4' overhead at south facing breaks from hurricane swell.
Friday the 24th, so far, looks about 3-4' overhead at south facing spots from hurricane swell.
Saturday the 25th, so far, looks about head high at south facing spots from hurricane swell.
Sunday the 26th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Monday the 27th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 16th) high pressure centered over the 4-Corners has weakened, reducing the inland heatwave over the next few days. The monsoonal flow remains in place, but we're now at the time of year when the thermal inversion (page 131) is greatly reduced (thanks to warmer surface temps), so marine layer through the forecast looks minimal with timely burn-offs. The monsoonal flow could bring light precip to parts of SD Thursday the 23rd and to all five coastal counties Friday the 24th into Saturday the 25th. That would be influenced by the second hurricane swell in the surf forecast bringing swell to SoCal Thursday the 23rd, so I'll need more time to see how that storm plays out. High pressure may also strengthen a bit early next week for warmer temps, more so later next week — according to the models this morning.
Another thing to note is that winds may have a southerly influence Friday the 17th into the weekend as Elida should get relatively close to SoCal, which you might recall from this earlier model (model from ECMWF):
That cloud-cover model shows Elida in the bottom left, which, swirling counterclockwise could influence winds near SoCal to flow in from in from the south. I'm taking that into account for the wind forecast below.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 16th) should see little to no marine layer with max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Friday the 17th should see AM marine layer with an early morning burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the mid 70s.
Saturday the 18th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday the 19th should see thin AM marine layer with an early burn-off, some tropical clouds, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Monday the 20th should see AM marine layer with an early to mid AM burn-off, some tropical clouds, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Tuesday the 21st should see AM marine layer with an early to mid AM burn-off, some tropical clouds, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores should run 8-12 mph this afternoon.
Friday the 17th should see light southerlies in the morning 3-7 mph, picking up throughout the morning running 15 mph by noon.
Saturday the 18th should see light southerlies in the morning 2-5 mph, shifting from the west in the afternoon 8-12 mph.
Sunday the 19th should see AM light and variables with a southerly element and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
