SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 9/15/26 5:55 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 15th) we have mostly light NW wind swell in SoCal. Light to moderate southern hemi is due Wednesday the 16th into Thursday the 17th. Wind swell is downgraded for the weekend. Light southern hemi builds Sunday the 20th, peaking with better size a couple days later. NW wind swell is being watched for the 27th-28th. And moderate SW ground swell is being watched for the 30th. Condition-wise: onshore flow for a while; winds pick up later this week; tide levels are evening out; and water temps remain on the warm side.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 8 seconds from 315° and 13 seconds from 200°. However, 18-second forerunners were showing up at times ahead of the southern hemi swell that will build tomorrow (page 43).
Most west facing breaks were running waist to at times chest high. Direct south facing spots were mostly knee to waist.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.7' (south facing) to 2.7' (west facing).
Tide levels are relaxing from the recent swing. Today we have a 2' low around 5:45 AM, a 5.3' high around noon, and a 1' low around 7:30 PM.
Water temps were running 72-75° around most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 70-73°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 68-72° over the past 24 hours. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 71° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 15th) we still have wind swell from this trough of low pressure that pushed south to SoCal, bringing cooler weather with it (model by NOAA MAG):
Wind swell from that pattern peaked yesterday and will fade Wednesday the 16th.
Wednesday the 16th (building day) into Thursday the 17th (peak) should see light to moderate southerly ground swell from this system that was south of French Polynesia last week (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That wasn't an ideal course for SoCal swell, which works out to waist to chest max waves at south facing breaks, angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should linger Friday the 18th and back off Saturday the 19th.
Saturday the 19th into Sunday the 20th should see an increase in NW wind swell but this was downgraded today as models now favor this somewhat weaker low (red arrow) passing through SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
This will increase onshore winds along the coast (see Weather and Wind sections below), but it won't be enough to whip up much of a fetch. Size should run waist high at west facing breaks Saturday the 19th and Sunday the 20th. For the weekend, the smallest day (splitting hairs) is Saturday, since Sunday should see southern hemi swell start to fill in. The green arrow, btw, is a tropical storm I'll get to in a sec.
Sunday the 20th (building day) into Monday the 21st should see SW ground swell start to build from this activity that was near New Zealand a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Although that particular fetch was located south of New Zealand, which blocked a good amount of its swell, it did reform and move northward to send us something better for the 22nd-23rd (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
This should result in initially waist high waves at south facing breaks Sunday the 20th and Monday the 21st, increasing to waist to chest Tuesday the 22nd, and then chest high Wednesday the 23rd. Swell should be angled from 215-220° with periods 16-17 seconds. This swell should continue with chest high waves Thursday the 24th, waist to chest Friday the 25th, and then waist high Saturday the 26th.
BTW: Wednesday the 23rd might also see light tropical swell in the mix as the 5-day models show this smallish storm that'd barely edge into our swell window (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Southern hemi swell would be dominant as that tropical swell works out to just waist high waves from a difficult 160° (page 46) and periods 11 seconds. The tropical swell may likely go unnoticed since southern hemi swell should run chest high Wednesday the 23rd. This is out on the 5-day so it does need more monitoring, but no model yet shows that storm being much of a wave-maker for SoCal.
Sunday the 27th into Monday the 28th could see a fairly robust round of NW wind swell as the extended long range models continue to show this low pressure trough (red circle) diving south into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
A tropical system (green circle) could provide a moisture plume for that trough to tap into with minor precip chances showing up as early as the 25th, but low chances for the coast (so far). The trough is the swell-maker, which could whip up at least chest high wind swell for west facing breaks Sunday the 27th into Monday the 28th. That's a good ten-plus days out, but models have been fairly well aligned on this over the past few days.
Wednesday the 30th is the next swell on my charts this morning from this storm that'd split across New Zealand on the 5-day (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that holds potential for chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 220° and periods 17 seconds.
Looking out further on the long range: In case you missed it from my Sunday report, things remain on track for a strong El Niño, peaking in a couple months for a potentially active winter of waves and weather (image from NOAA CPC):
NOAA gave this a slight upgrade last week with the mean strength (black line) peaking in October, November, December (OND) at about 2.6°C. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. So this year's El Niño might meet or exceed those events' signal strength. But this doesn't guarantee that we'll see a repeat of the same weather and waves we experienced in the past (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud).
For instance, the El Niño of 1997-1998 — which tore the end off the Ventura Pier with 20'+ waves at the end of January '98 — resulted in a wet winter of about 38" of total rain for parts of Ventura County. Yet even though the 2015-16 El Niño was stronger, it brought only about 10" of rain for the winter, falling well below the normal 14" in VC. It wasn't until the following winter, when El Niño was gone, that we got above average rainfall in SoCal (about 20" in Ventura County). This same uncertainty applies to surf.
El Niño simply does one thing that affects SoCal: it increases the "chance" for heavy swells and rain as it positions the jetstream across SoCal instead of to our north (see illustrations on page 96 in Wave by Wave). This doesn't guarantee the number of storms or their potency. It merely lays the tracks for NorthPac storms to travel. It's up to numerous other variables to determine the frequency and strength of storms that ride El Niño's jetstream express our way. So while the potential exists for an active winter ahead with a warning to prepare, it doesn't ensure what exactly will unfold.
All of this needs a lot more monitoring in the coming weeks and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 16th looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing spots, smaller at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 17th looks about waist to chest at south facing spots, much smaller at west facing spots.
Friday the 18th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Saturday the 19th should run waist high at most spots.
Sunday the 20th should run waist high at most spots.
Monday the 21st should run waist high at most spots with occasional pluses at standout south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 22nd looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 23rd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 24th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Friday the 25th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 15th) an onshore flow is underway as a trough of low pressure is sagging south to SoCal. Other troughs are on tap through the forecast with one passing to the north of SoCal Thursday the 17th, followed by this low that will pass through SoCal this weekend, which will also increase onshore winds, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
While this will keep the onshore flow in place, it should make afternoon onshore winds a bit stronger than normal this weekend into early next week. Winds may be persistent long enough to cause upwelling (page 148) and coastal eddies can't be ruled out either (page 135). The eddies could thicken up AM marine layer this weekend, but NW winds may help to scour-out marine layer by midmorning, making it a time when "if it's clear, then winds are near".
High pressure should build into the American West by the middle of next week but with moderate strength. At the same time, many models show the low becoming cut off from the jetstream, meandering near SoCal through Friday the 25th. But then, the low would be subsumed by a much larger trough of low pressure by Saturday the 26th, which raises some questions (model by NOAA MAG):
A popular school of thought on the models the past few days is that the tropical storm (green circle) would provide a moisture plume for a hefty trough (red circle) to tap into. Models have been bandying about rain chances anywhere between the 25th through the 27th, but not much, and brief. It's still a long way out but definitely worth watching.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 15th) should see burn-off by late morning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wednesday the 16th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off around noon and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Thursday the 17th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Friday the 18th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off around midmorning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Saturday the 19th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off around midmorning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Sunday the 20th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off around midmorning, although high clouds should drift overhead for a good part of the day. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM light and variable most everywhere with an ESE element. Southerly winds should pick up later this morning, becoming WSW this afternoon to 15 mph.
Wednesday the 16th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 17th should see AM light and variables, picking up onshore by noon to 10 mph, then 15-20 mph by mid afternoon.
Friday the 18th should see AM light and variables, picking up onshore by noon to 10 mph, then 15-20 mph by mid afternoon.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
