SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 5/21/26 6:15 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 21st) we have a light to moderate mix of NW and SW ground swells in SoCal. Although swell will fade over the next couple days, moderately sized SW ground swell is due early next week. Moderate NW ground swell is being watched for the end of next week. A sizable SW ground swell is expected to build Sunday the 31st into Monday the 1st. More southern hemisphere ground swells are being watched for June 4th through at least the 7th. Condition-wise: May Gray returns; winds pick up in a couple days; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 11-14 seconds from 290-315° and 13-15 seconds from 185°.
Most breaks were running waist to chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6-8'. Nearshore buoys were mostly 2.5'.
Tide levels are relaxing from the recent swing. Today we have a -1' low around 8:30 AM, a 3.7' high around 3:30 PM, and a 2.8' low around 8:00 PM.
Water temps were running 64-67° in most of SD. OC was mostly 62-64°, but San Clemente Pier reported 70° at one point yesterday. LA was mostly 62-64°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° yesterday. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 61° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 21st) we're on the tail end of the NW ground swell sent our way from this system that formed near the Aleutians about a week ago (model from NOAA OPC):
Southern hemi swell is in the background, but all of this should drop to about waist max Friday the 22nd, smaller Saturday the 23rd.
Sunday the 24th (more so Monday the 25th) should see a building trend of SW ground swell from a series of small-scaled storms that were directed north near New Zealand by this trough of low pressure you might recall from earlier reports (model by NOAA MAG):
Sunday the 24th should see the initial warm-up round with just waist high waves at south facing breaks. Monday the 25th should see an increase to chest high from a better-sized storm that peaked a few days ago. This and other swells in that trough should keep chest high waves at south facing breaks Tuesday the 26th and Wednesday the 27th. Swell should be angled from 200° and periods 15 seconds.
Along with southern hemi ground swell, we should also see NW ground swell by Monday the 25th from this high latitude system hugging the Aleutian Chain (model from NOAA OPC):
Although not a favorable course with a low angular spread (see page 52), it did peak with seas near 30', which works out to chest max sets at west facing breaks by Monday the 25th. However, sets look spotty and inconsistent, angled from a steep 310° and periods 15-16 seconds. Some of this should fill into SoCal Sunday the 24th. But when the bulk of the NW swell arrives Monday the 25th, the southern hemi swell will be near its peak. So all told, on Monday the 25th south facing spots should run consistently chest high while west facing breaks run inconsistently chest max. Same goes for Tuesday the 26th.
Wednesday the 27th through Friday the 29th, as these particular swells wane, we may see light to moderate NW wind swell from a couple low pressure troughs that will likely push south toward SoCal. They'll affect weather more than waves (see Weather section below), but it could add something into the mix when our next swell comes ashore late next week.
Friday the 29th could see NW ground swell from this system that's expected to travel from the Western Pacific up toward the Aleutian Chain (model from NOAA OPC):
That's a new feature on the models today and only a few days out from coming to its peak, housing decently sized 30' seas. The course isn't the greatest, but it would be enough to produce chest+ sets at west facing breaks Friday the 29th, angled from 300° and periods 16 seconds.
Sunday the 31st (building day with forerunners) into Monday the 1st (peak) is expected to see sizable southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that's now just two days from reaching its peak near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This morning's model runs show seas reaching 45' in the center of that fetch with a somewhat improved course compared to earlier runs. Although this is still a couple days out, confidence is high from model consistency the past few days. Running the numbers this morning, size is coming in at head high to a foot overhead at most south facing breaks, angled from 210° with periods initially 20 seconds when this swell peaks Monday the 1st. Sunday the 31st will be a potentially hazardous day as deceivingly, average sets running chest high get interspersed with outsider forerunners throughout the day (see page 41). With model confidence high, I'm calling it. I'll have confirmation as well in my next report (Sunday). In any case, this swell should continue with similar size Tuesday the 2nd (head high+) and then chest to head high Wednesday the 3rd.
Thursday the 4th into Friday the 5th could see moderate SW ground swell from this smaller system forming in the same region (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Based on the 5-day models, that works out to chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 16 seconds.
Saturday the 6th into Sunday the 7th could see a better sized SW ground swell from yet another system in that region (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's out further on the 8-day models, with potential for chest to head high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 18 seconds.
Last up, before getting to weather and winds, models have dropped tropical storm potential for early June, but waters remain primed with a marine heat wave (MHW) established off Mexico, spreading north into SoCal. This, as equatorial waters warm in response to El Niño (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
While the marine heat wave is a new variable this time around, this year's El Niño continues to hold potential to be stronger than prior, record-breaking Niños (model from NOAA CPC)
By November, the water temps in the El Niño zones are expected to be 2.7°C warmer than normal (the thick dashed line). By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 was 2.4°C. For the short term, as waters warm in the equatorial Pacific over the coming weeks, it will increase the potential for hurricane development, along with a better course for these storms to travel to send swell to SoCal (see page 153). So while southern hemi swells are the lion's share of the forecast going into June right now, there is a high chance of seeing more frequent than usual hurricane swells this summer. Winter is another story with potential for very sizable WNW swells and heavy rain — something I'll be watching closely over the coming months.
There's a lot to monitor across the Pacific that'll affect SoCal's waves and weather. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 22nd looks about waist max everywhere.
Saturday the 23rd looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Sunday the 24th looks about waist high at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Monday the 25th looks about chest high at south facing breaks as southern hemi swell fills in. West facing breaks should run waist high.
Tuesday the 26th looks about chest high at south facing spots and waist high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 27th looks about chest max at south facing spots. West facing breaks, so far, look about waist high from wind swell.
Thursday the 28th, so far, looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing spots. West facing breaks will likely run waist high.
Friday the 29th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at west facing breaks from ground swell. There may be wind swell in the mix. South facing breaks will likely run waist high.
Saturday the 30th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 31st, so far, is expected to see southern hemisphere ground swell fill in, starting out at chest high for the dawn patrols, bigger later in the day, and with forerunners throughout the day.
Monday the 1st, so far, is expected to run head high at south facing spots with top spots running a foot or so overhead.
Tuesday the 2nd, so far, is expected to run head high+ at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 3rd, so far, is expected to run chest to head high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 4th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots.
Friday the 5th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 6th and/or Sunday the 7th holds potential for chest to head high sets at south facing breaks...more on that in my next report.
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Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 21st) high pressure is weakening over the American West, increasing the onshore flow. A thermal inversion has also reestablished over SoCal, measuring Δ10°F warmer a mile up than at the surface, aiding marine layer development (more on that on page 131). As high pressure weakens over the next few days, a couple troughs of low pressure are expected to sag slightly south toward SoCal, further increasing the onshore flow starting Sunday the 24th while creating tighter pressure gradients along the coast. This will create stronger than normal afternoon onshores early next week (see Wind section below). The onshore flow may increase enough by Tuesday the 26th that we'd see drizzle at the coast — same goes for Wednesday the 27th. More low pressure troughs are likely to follow, keeping the May Gray well entrenched along the SoCal coast.
June Gloom may be slightly delayed as models show strong high pressure building over the American West by June 2nd; however, some models advertise a cut-off low around that time that could sit and spin just off the coast of SoCal, keeping the marine layer well intact.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 21st) should see a burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Friday the 22nd should see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s. Marine layer may hang around some spots, especially north of LA, into early afternoon.
Saturday the 23rd is expected to see AM marine layer, mid to late AM burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Sunday the 24th is expected to see AM marine layer, which will likely clear out in the early AM north of LA as winds pick up early, but hang around until late morning from LA south as winds get delayed. This will be a day when "if it's clear, then winds are near". Max beach temps should reach the mid 60s.
Monday the 25th should see a similar clearing pattern as winds pick up early from LA north. AM marine layer should dissipate early to mid morning from LA north, and then late morning farther south. It'll be another day when "if it's clear, then winds are near". Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 60s.
Tuesday the 26th is looking at a robust marine layer with burn-off by early afternoon from LA north, but lingering well into the afternoon south of LA. Morning drizzle is possible, especially south of LA. Max beach temps should hover in the low 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with some light eddy texture coming in from the SE 3-8 mph. Onshores should pick up to about 10 mph by the afternoon and run 15 mph by midafternoon.
Friday the 22nd should see AM light and variables with a SE'erly element, picking up by noon to 10 mph and then 15 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Saturday the 23rd should see AM light and variables with an onshore westerly element, reaching 10 mph onshore by noon, and then 15 mph onshore by early to mid afternoon.
Sunday the 24th is expected to see AM light and variables with an onshore westerly element, reaching 10-15 mph onshore by noon, and then 15-20 mph onshore by mid afternoon.
Monday the 25th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with an onshore westerly element, reaching 10-15 mph onshore by noon, and then 15-20 mph onshore by mid afternoon.
Tuesday the 26th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with an onshore element, reaching 15 mph onshore by noon, and then 20-25 mph onshore by mid afternoon.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
