SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Sunday 5/31/26 6:15 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 31st) we have a good deal of NW wind swell in SoCal. Southern hemi forerunners are pinging the buoys this morning, signaling the SW swell that will fill into SoCal over the next couple days. A good-sized SW ground swell fills in Thursday the 4th into Friday the 5th. Some NW wind swell is due then too. A significantly sized southern hemisphere ground swell is due by Tuesday the 9th. Lesser southern hemis may trail that for the 13th and 16th. And tropical swell remains a possibility for the weekend of the 13th. Condition-wise: fair weather with more marine layer in a few days; winds trend onshore but moderate for this time of year in most spots; a tidal swing is underway; and spotty upwelling is affecting water temps.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 8-11 seconds from 290-315° and 13 seconds from 215°. However, 22-second forerunners were showing up at times on some buoys, signaling the southern hemi filling in over the next couple days.

Most west facing spots were running chest high with occasional pluses at standouts. Direct south facing spots were mostly waist to chest high.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 11'. Nearshore buoys were running 2' (south facing) to 3.5' (west facing).

Tide levels are swinging wide from today's Full Moon; but typical for this time of year, the widest swings will be mostly outside of daylight hours but with negative lows affecting dawn patrols over the next few days. Today we have a -0.6' low around 4:30 AM, a 3.3' high around 11:00 AM, a 2.4' low around 3:30 PM, and a near 6' high around 9:30 PM.

Water temps have dipped in some spots from spotty upwelling as winds in the outer waters have been blowing over 25kt over the past 24 hours (page 148). SD is less affected with water temps hovering around 63-65°. In OC, Huntington Beach reported 59° late yesterday, Newport Beach was 61°, and the usually warmer San Clemente Pier reported 66°. In LA, the usually cooler Zuma reported 58° yesterday, Santa Monica Pier dipped to to 58° in the past 24 hours (although a couple ticks higher at times), and Topanga buoy reported 58° this morning as well. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 59° overnight. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 61° this morning, up slightly from 58° last night.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 31st) wind swell is dominant in SoCal from this pattern you might recall from last week's reports that created a tight, north-to-south pressure gradient along the coast (model by UQAM):

Pinned between that robust Pacific surface high and opposing inland low are strong winds, affecting mostly the outer waters but also crossing land at Pt. Conception with strong winds as far east as Gaviota. This will affect sky cover the next couple days (see Weather section below). Swell-wise, this wind swell should reach its peak this morning and then weaken Monday the 1st, more so Tuesday the 2nd as it passes the baton to the south.

By Monday the 1st we should see decently sized southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand about eight days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

Forerunners were pinging the buoys this morning at 22 seconds, but the bulk of that swell should build into SoCal Monday the 1st at initially chest to head high at south facing breaks; however, sets may be spotty Monday as this swell fills in, becoming more consistently head high Tuesday the 2nd. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods initially 19 seconds. After peaking Tuesday the 2nd, this should dip to chest+ at south facing breaks Wednesday the 3rd.

Thursday the 4th (building day with forerunners) into Friday the 5th is when our next SW swell is due. At first, Thursday the 4th should start out with swell from this system (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

While that should start Thursday the 4th with chest high sets at south facing breaks for the dawn patrols, swell from a second, bigger system should produce better size rather quickly (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

Forerunners from that swell should fill in throughout the morning Thursday the 4th. Size should then increase later in the day, reaching its peak Friday the 5th with sets running head high at south facing breaks. Swell should be angled from 210° and periods 18-19 seconds. Head high sets should continue at south facing breaks Saturday the 6th; and then chest to head high Sunday the 7th.

Although southern hemi will be dominant Thursday the 4th, we're looking at wind swell in the mix as this familiar springtime pattern once again gins up winds along the coast (model by UQAM):

Pressure gradients will once again be tight with Δ22 hPa between that high and low. The red areas signify winds in the 40 mph range, but staying west of the Channel Islands means only a fraction will diffract into the SoCal Bight (page 77). So far, this looks like chest high wind swell for west facing breaks Thursday the 4th and Friday the 5th. Minor Gulf energy preceding that would be around waist high, but that should be overshadowed by southern hemi wrap into west facing spots. Once again, southern hemi swell is expected to run head high at south facing breaks Friday the 5th and Saturday the 6th, weakening Sunday the 7th — but not for long.

Monday the 8th (late) into Tuesday the 9th (peak) should see significantly sized southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that got an upgrade this morning (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):

That gorgeous purple blob has a juicy center with seas over 47', which on that course is a major swell producer for SoCal. Granted, this is on the 2-day models, differing from model runs late last week. However, all models are in agreement, and now that we're nearing the finish line with just 48 hours to go, confidence is high. Running the numbers, this works out to sets running 2-3' overhead at south facing breaks Tuesday the 9th and Wednesday the 10th, angled from 190-195°. That angle puts this just within the window to create pluses at spots working refraction through the San Diego Trough (see page 111 in Wave by Wave). So there is a chance that some standouts, mostly south of LA, could see bigger set waves at times. Periods should run 21 seconds initially Tuesday the 9th, although longer forerunners are possible Monday the 8th. After peaking Tuesday the 9th and Wednesday the 10th, this swell should back down to about head high Thursday the 11th and chest high or so Friday the 12th.

Saturday the 13th will likely see moderate SW ground swell from continued activity in that region. The 4-day models show one storm with 30' seas at a slightly lower latitude, which works out to chest+ waves at south facing breaks, angled from 190-195° and periods 16-17 seconds. This would likely continue Sunday the 14th, backing down to waist to chest Monday the 15th.

Saturday the 13th also continues to hold potential for tropical swell as the long range ensembles once again advertise a nursery of storms breaking out of our tropical swell window (model by NOAA MAG):

Each white arrow points to a tropical storm. But at 288 hours out, we're beyond the 10-day window to where the more accurate, deterministic models extend. Once we get within that range then forecast confidence gains momentum — more so once we get within a week away. Still, the course remains on track as water temps have stayed warmer than normal from this year's marine heat wave (MHW) and El Niño (model from NOAA OSPO):

Given the current state of the Eastern Pacific increases the likelihood of hurricane swell in the coming weeks and months. So although these storms are on the extended long range, tropical swell potential is warranted to watch right now. Tropics aside, more ground swells are being tracked this morning.

Tuesday the 16th should see a moderate southerly ground swell from yet another storm that would trail the significant swell for the 9th. So far, based on the 8-day models, south facing breaks would see chest+ sets, angled from 180-190° and periods 16-17 seconds. This would likely continue Wednesday the 17th before another moderate southern hemi comes ashore Thursday the 18th. This however is stretching into long-range-land with models 8+ days out.

The last Pacific storm on this morning's watch-list for waves is Typhoon Jangmi, which models continue to show retrograding in the NorthPac Gyre (page 145), which can result in NW swell for SoCal. The retrograde would occur in the next 48-72 hours, after skirting Japan, which would weaken that storm. There's low confidence on this being surf-worthy for SoCal, so it's a footnote on my charts for now.

Either way, it's a very busy time across the Pacific with a slew of storms that need monitoring for SoCal swell, especially with the southern hemisphere becoming hyperactive and the tropics primed for storm activity. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to track these wave-making systems to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial right now to keep this report alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Monday the 1st is expected to run chest to head high at south facing spots, although swell may be slow to fill in with sets being sporadically sized, especially from longer than average periods in the mix. West facing breaks look about waist to chest high.

Tuesday the 2nd is expected to run head high at south facing spots. West facing breaks look about waist to at times chest high.

Wednesday the 3rd is expected to run chest+ at south facing spots and waist high at west facing spots.

Thursday the 4th is expected to run chest high at south facing spots for the dawn patrols but with forerunners throughout the day and an increase in size late in the day. West facing breaks may run chest high at times from wind swell.

Friday the 5th is expected to run head high at south facing spots and chest max at west facing breaks from wrap and wind swell.

Saturday the 6th is expected to run head high at south facing spots and chest max at west facing spots.

Sunday the 7th, so far, is expected to run chest to head high at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Monday the 8th, so far, is expected to run chest high at south facing spots for the dawn patrols, but with forerunners throughout the day and an increase by the evening.

Tuesday the 9th, so far, is expected to run 2-3' overhead at many south facing spots.

Wednesday the 10th, so far, looks about 2-3' overhead at south facing spots.

Thursday the 11th, so far, looks about head high at south facing spots with some pluses possible in the morning.

Friday the 12th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks with some pluses near head high at standouts.

Saturday the 13th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks. There is also potential for tropical swell around this time.

Sunday the 14th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks. There is also potential for tropical swell around this time.

Monday the 15th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks.

Tuesday the 16th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks.

Wednesday the 17th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 31st) weak high pressure remains over SoCal, which should peak Monday the 1st before light low pressure troughing takes hold for the second half of the week. The major influence on SoCal beach weather today through Tuesday is the tight, north-to-south gradient that is also kicking up wind swell today (model by UQAM):

While that wind-gust model shows winds concentrated in the outer waters, the inland gradients show a decent, offshore northerly push with the LAX-BFL gradient (page 127) measuring -3mb early this morning. That gradient will neutralize Monday, but remain weak with no major onshore push from it, or the LAX-DAG gradient, which should hover around 3mb (weak to moderate onshore) for the next couple days. The thermal inversion is weak but non-zero, and there hasn't been much off any coastal eddy action. All told, the end result is minimal marine layer along the coast over the next few days, with a more noticeable marine layer for the second half of the week, along with slightly cooler temps.

By Saturday the 6th we may see a stronger onshore push as a large storm (yellow arrow) slams the PNW, and the lower edge of its trough (red arrow) sags through SoCal (model by UQAM):

That precip model shows rain off the SoCal coast, but none should reach land. Instead, this should increase the onshore push this coming weekend for SoCal with the usual suspects: thicker marine layer and cooler temps.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Sunday the 31st) should see little to AM marine layer with max beach temps in the upper 60s.

Monday the 1st should see a thin marine layer with an early burnoff and max beach temps in the upper 60s.

Tuesday the 2nd should see AM marine layer, midmorning burnoff, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.

Wednesday the 3rd should see AM marine layer, mid to late morning burnoff, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.

Thursday the 4th should see AM marine layer, late morning burnoff, and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.

Friday the 5th should see AM marine layer, burnoff by noon or early afternoon, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores are expected this afternoon to 15 mph. Winds however will be strong near Pt. Conception, reaching 30-35 mph this afternoon and evening from Gaviota west.

Monday the 1st should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph. Winds should weaken temporarily from Gaviota west.

Tuesday the 2nd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.

Wednesday the 3rd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.

 

Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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