SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 9/6/26 7:20 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 6th) strong southerly swell from Marie is coming to its peak in SoCal but this swell isn't over yet. By the end of week we'll see moderate SW ground swell along with background westerly swell from Lowell. Light to moderate southern hemi is likely Wednesday the 16th into Thursday the 17th. And a couple moderate swells are being watched for the 19th-22nd. Condition-wise: Marie is bringing rain to some areas today with another round possible for other areas in a couple days; winds will be affected by Marie for some areas short term; a tidal swing is underway; water temps have cooled in many spots; and advisories and warnings are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 13 seconds from 175° and 11 seconds from 310°.
Most south facing spots were running a couple feet overhead with many standouts seeing waves running 2-4' overhead. Even bigger waves were coming through at south facing breaks that work refraction from the San Diego Trough (page 111). West facing breaks were picking up chest high-ish wrap, along with a lesser NW wind swell, although SW spots were bigger.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-8'. Nearshore buoys were about 4' but southerly energy was running over 7' at times on the spectrum.
Tide levels are swinging wider as we approach a New Moon Thursday the 10th. Today we have a 4' high around 8:00 AM, a 3' low around noon, and a 6' high around 6:00 PM.
Water temps were running 72-74° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 68° last night and Ventura Harbor reported 70° yesterday. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 68° this morning.
Hazard Warnings: Strong swell from Marie is creating a number of hazards including rip currents, rogue sneaker waves, and high consistency. Advisories and warnings will remain in effect through Tuesday the 8th. The NWS has issued warnings as well. You can see the latest warnings and advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here. Caution is advised.
Water Contact Advisory: Rain from Marie will increase the risk of contamination from runoff in the surf zone, especially since washes and flood channels haven't been flushed out in a long while. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 6th) swell from Marie takes center stage, outdoing a New Zealand swell that peaked in SoCal yesterday. That now-lesser southern hemi would produce head high sets at south facing breaks on its own, but Marie is much bigger as she got very close to SoCal with impressive seas, shown here a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Rain is an issue today for many areas and there's another shot in a couple days for others. I'll break that down in the Weather section below. Swell-wise, Marie was still pumping up 25' seas this morning at just 500 nautical miles from SoCal. This should keep swell going Monday the 7th with many south facing breaks running 2' overhead but bigger at standouts, especially those that work refraction from the San Diego Trough (page 111). Swell should then back off to around head high with pluses Tuesday the 8th and chest high with occasional pluses Wednesday the 9th.
Thursday the 10th (building day) into Friday the 11th should see moderate SW ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand last week (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That works out to chest high sets at south facing breaks by Friday the 11th, angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds. Along with this southern hemi we should also see WSW swell from Lowell as that storm has strengthened and is retrograding back to the east, taking aim at Hawaii, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
On the right we can see Marie starting to fade but strong enough to have a visible eye. Note also the cloud cover spinning off Marie (blue) that's passing through SoCal. But on the left is a much stronger Lowell, taking a trek to the Hawaiian Islands where numerous warnings and advisories are in effect. For SoCal swell, many west and south facing breaks should see swell from Lowell Friday the 11th, but with size in the waist high range. Since south facing breaks will see chest high southern hemi, Lowell may go largely unnoticed with waves in the mix coming in from 250-260° and periods 16 seconds.
The southern hemi swell should linger at around waist to chest high Saturday the 12th with Lowell in the background. Size should dip further Sunday the 13th. During this time, winds from a trough of low pressure pushing south toward SoCal are expected (so far) to stir up waist to chest high wind swell for west facing breaks, but short-lived, backing off Monday the 14th, more so Tuesday the 15th.
Wednesday the 16th (building day) into Thursday the 17th (peak) should see light to moderate southerly ground swell from this system on the 2-day models south of French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's not an ideal course for SoCal swell, which works out to waist to maybe chest max waves at south facing breaks, angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should linger Friday the 18th and back off Saturday the 19th.
Saturday the 19th (building day) into Sunday the 20th (still building) into Monday the 21st (peak) could see SW ground swell from two fetches that are projected to form near New Zealand. The first is this Tasman Sea system on the 3-day models, which would bring the initial swell building Saturday the 19th (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
A lot of energy is lost from Tasman Sea swells by the time they reach SoCal as between them and us lie numerous South Pacific islands that soak up much of the wave energy. This also makes sets inconsistent with fewer than normal waves per set and long wait times between sets. As for size, this would produce waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks by Sunday the 20th, angled from 225-230° and periods 17 seconds. That's the initial swell.
Monday the 21st into Tuesday the 22nd could see a slightly better size and consistency as this fetch forms east of New Zealand, which falls better within SoCal's swell window (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's on the 6-day; but so far, that holds potential for chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 220° and periods 17 seconds.
Looking out on the longer range, tropical swell potential looks lackluster after Marie as the MJO — which was over the eastern Pacific the past couple weeks — continues its global circulation to the east, exiting our tropical neck of the woods. But the MJO is just one element that influences hurricane development. Warm waters are the primary ingredient and they're exceptionally warm off Baja right now from a marine heat wave (MHW), while El Niño remains well established, and strong (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
In fact, we're already pushing toward the very strong category that starts at 2°C. Today we're near that mark, shown by the arrow. And the forecast is on track to hit 2.5°C in October (model from NOAA CPC)
By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. So this year's El Niño might meet or exceed those memorable events (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud).
El Niño will have higher potential for NW swell and rain events this winter. For now it's keeping waters warm enough to favor an ideal course for hurricanes to trek well within our swell window. This though needs a lot more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 7th looks about 1-2' overhead at many south facing spots with pluses at standouts. Bigger pluses are likely at spots able to work refraction from the San Diego Trough (page 111).
Tuesday the 8th looks about head high at south facing spots with occasional overhead pluses.
Wednesday the 9th looks about chest high at south facing breaks with fewer pluses.
Thursday the 10th should run waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Friday the 11th should run chest high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 12th looks about waist to chest high at most breaks.
Sunday the 13th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Monday the 14th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere.
Tuesday the 15th, so far, also looks about waist high at most spots.
Wednesday the 16th, so far, looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 17th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 6th) Marie is spinning very close to SoCal (red box) with copious clouds covering the region, which we can see from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
Rain was passing through a large portion of LA and OC as well as parts of SD and to a lesser degree VC. Exceptionally heavy bands were sitting off the coast of LA, which could bring flooding rain at times. Although Marie's current rain bands should end later today or tonight, models show a resurgence in precip Tuesday the 8th from LA north as Marie travels north and temporarily to the east.
Meanwhile, high pressure is temporarily weak in the American Southwest but will stretch back into SoCal Wednesday the 9th, becoming rather strong Thursday the 10th. This will create a warm-up, especially inland, but still notable along the coast. While the valleys tease the 100° mark Wednesday and Thursday, the beaches should hover around 80°.
The short-lived heatwave should quickly diminish Friday the 11th, more so Saturday the 12th as a robust trough of low pressure pushes south to SoCal, bringing cooler air and an onshore flow. And then just as quickly, the trough should exit as moderate high pressure builds into the 4-Corners Monday the 14th, peaking Tuesday the 15th for warmer weather, but not for long.
Wednesday the 16th into Thursday the 17th could see light precip in SoCal as a Pacific low is forecast to come into or close to SoCal. At the very least we'd see cooling with an onshore flow. Rain is in the low likelihood category but non-zero as some models show measurable rain.
As for marine layer, that's pretty much a non-issue through the forecast as tropical moisture is inhibiting marine cloud development and the inversion over SoCal is weak thanks to the abnormally warm waters along the coast.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 6th) should see rain through VC south into SD, less likely in SB. Rain is expected for a good part of the day (on and off), ending tonight. Skies should remain cloudy. Beach max temps should reach the mid 70s.
Monday the 7th should see a mix of tropical clouds and localized marine layer in the morning with clearing throughout the day. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 70s.
Tuesday the 8th should see a good deal of tropical clouds, although minimal marine layer. Rain is possible in VC and SB. Beach max temps should reach the upper 70s.
Wednesday the 9th should see tropical clouds dissipate for mostly clear skies by midmorning. Beach max temps should tease the 80° mark.
Thursday the 10th should see clear skies and max beach temps around 80°.
Friday the 11th, so far, is looking at thin AM marine layer with a rapid burn-off, some high clouds, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light from the north 4-9 mph in many spots. Winds should become westerly in the afternoon 8-12 mph.
Monday the 7th should see light northerlies in the morning 3-7 mph and afternoon westerlies 10-15 mph.
Tuesday the 8th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Wednesday the 9th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph, but up to 20 mph mid to late afternoon.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
