SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 10/1/26 5:25 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 1st) we have a light to moderate mix of NW and SW swells in SoCal with smaller surf ahead over the next few days. Southerly swell from Rachel is becoming likely for Tuesday the 6th. Moderate southern hemi and Aleutian swells follow. SW ground swell is due for the weekend of the 10th-11th. Better sized southern hemi should follow a couple days later along with NW swell from Choi-Wan. Condition-wise: light Santa Ana with a warming and clearing will be here shortly; tide levels relax over the next few days; and water temps remain on the warm side.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 200° and 9 seconds from 320°.
Most breaks were running waist to chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6-7'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.5' (south facing) to 2.5' (west facing).
Tide levels are still swinging wide from Saturday's Full Moon but will relax over the next couple days. Today we have a 2.6' low around 6:00 AM, a 6' high around 12:30 PM, and a 0.5' low around 8:30 PM.
Water temps were running 71-74° around most of SD and OC. LA was running 72-75° in most spots, although Zuma reported 69° yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 71° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 1st) the recent mix of NW swells along with swell from Polo are on the way out. Smaller surf is on tap Friday the 2nd through Monday the 5th.
Tuesday the 6th will likely see southerly swell from Rachel, shown here entering our swell window this weekend (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Taking a westerly course will result in a fair amount of angular decay (page 52). But with 30' seas, we'd get enough energy to put south facing breaks into sets running chest+ Tuesday the 6th and then chest to head high Wednesday the 7th. Swell angle on Tuesday should run 165-170° and then 170-175° Wednesday. Periods should run 12-13 seconds, although sporadic, longer periods should be in the mix for occasional pluses at standouts. Note that some of this swell may arrive late Monday evening. In any case, this is out on the 3- to 4-day models but I'll confirm this in my next report (Sunday).
Thursday the 8th, as swell from Rachel declines, SW ground swell should fill in, peaking Friday the 9th from this system that was near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Thursday the 8th should run chest high at south facing breaks, mostly from Rachel's fading swell. Friday the 9th should also run chest high at south facing breaks, but mostly from the New Zealand swell, which should be angled from 210° and periods 16 seconds.
Friday the 9th, along with the New Zealand swell, we'll likely also see spotty, intermittent NW ground swell from this system, circled in white, smashing into the Aleutian Chain three days from now (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That Aleutian swell isn't positioned ideally for SoCal swell, but it will likely send inconsistent chest max waves to west facing breaks, arriving Friday the 9th. Swell would be angled from a steep, 315° with periods 16 seconds. Choi-Wan on the bottom left is another storm of surf-worthy interest for SoCal and I'll get to that in a sec.
Saturday the 10th (building day) into Sunday the 11th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this deep low latitude storm (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Although housing 40' seas this morning, it's moving on a direct easterly course, sending only a fraction of swell to SoCal. This works out to long-period swell with chest high sets at south facing breaks by Sunday the 11th, although occasional pluses at standouts are possible. Swell should be angled from 200° and periods 17-19 seconds. This swell should continue at chest high at south facing breaks Monday the 12th.
Wednesday the 14th (building in the evening Tuesday the 13th) could see SW ground swell from this storm moving north off Antarctica on the 4-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That would produce chest to head high sets at south facing breaks Wednesday the 14th, angled from 205° and periods 17 seconds. This swell would likely linger for a couple days after.
Wednesday the 14th may also see intermittent NW ground swell from Choi-Wan, shown here after turning east on the 6-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Size, so far, is coming in at chest to occasionally head high on the better sets. But given its distance, there'd be few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell would be angled from 305° and periods 17 seconds. This is still out on the 6-day models and needs more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 2nd should run waist high at most spots.
Saturday the 3rd looks about waist high everywhere.
Sunday the 4th looks about waist high everywhere.
Monday the 5th, so far, looks about waist high everywhere; however, there is a chance for swell from Rachel to start filling in, likely late in the day.
Tuesday the 6th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks.
Wednesday the 7th, so far, is expected to run chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Thursday the 8th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks.
Friday the 9th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Saturday the 10th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Monday the 12th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 13th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most breaks.
Wednesday the 14th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks and at least chest high at west facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 1st) is a transition day as the recent trough of low pressure is pushing east and high pressure fills into SoCal. High pressure should peak over SoCal Saturday the 3rd and then park itself for an extended period over the 4-Corners region. The high's position should create a weak Santa Ana Saturday the 3rd through most of next week. There isn't much upper level support, nor is there any surface cold air support in the Great Basin, necessary for most traditional Santa Anas (page 116). Gradients should run weakly offshore in the mornings starting Saturday the 3rd through at least Thursday the 8th with afternoon onshore gradients being extremely weak, almost stagnant. This will prevent marine layer development and seabreeze cooling, resulting in a heatwave for SoCal; however, the offshore flow will also keep things fairly dry, so no little to no tropical moisture is expected. High pressure is expected to weaken at least some for the weekend of the 10th-11th, but possibly regain strength shortly after.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 1st) should see a burn-off midmorning and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Friday the 2nd should see AM marine layer, burn-off midmorning, and max beach temps in the upper 70s to possibly the low 80s.
Saturday the 3rd should see no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the low to mid 80s.
Sunday the 4th should see no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the low to mid 80s.
Monday the 5th should see no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the low to mid 80s.
Tuesday the 6th should see no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the low 80s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores should pick up by noon 5-10 mph, and then 9-14 mph in the afternoon.
Friday the 2nd should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Saturday the 3rd should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Sunday the 4th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Monday the 5th will likely see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
