SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 4/7/26 5:40 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 7th) we have mostly moderate southerly ground swell in SoCal with background NW ground- and wind-swell. Wind swell picks up later today into Wednesday the 8th. Moderate SW ground swell is due Friday the 10th. NW wind swell is being watched for Sunday the 12th into Monday the 13th. Minor southern hemi is due shortly after. Moderate SW ground swell is likely late next week, lasting for a few days. Condition-wise: rain likely by the weekend; winds stronger than normal in some spots this week; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 180°, 12 seconds from 310°, and 7 seconds from 290°.
Most south facing spots were running upwards of chest high. West facing breaks were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6-8'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.4'.
Tide levels are moderate right now. Today we have a 0.5' low around 8:00 AM that will slowly rise to a 4.5' high around midnight.
Water temps were running 62-66° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° last night. In SB, the USCG and Stearns Wharf readings weren't recent but the channel was running 60° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 7th) we're on the tail end of southern hemisphere ground swell from this activity that broke off Antarctica almost two weeks ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
NW ground swell remains from earlier Gulf activity. All of this should back off Wednesday the 8th. But wind swell is on the rise today, which should peak Wednesday the 8th as a pressure gradient develops between these surface high and low pressure systems (model by UQAM):
That wind-gust model shows gusts west of the islands in the 40 mph range overnight tonight, which should be enough to create waist to chest high wind swell waves at SoCal's west facing breaks Wednesday the 8th. Wind swell should be angled from 300°+ with periods 6-9 seconds. This wind swell should decline Thursday the 9th and drop off quite a bit Friday the 10th.
Friday the 10th should see SW ground swell from this low latitude, Antarctic system that was southeast of New Zealand about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce chest high sets at south facing breaks Friday the 10th, angled from 205° with periods 16-17 seconds. We should also see intermittent NW ground swell from this system that was near Japan (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's just a waist high swell for west facing breaks Friday the 10th into Saturday the 11th, with swell angled from 305° and periods 14 seconds. Southern hemisphere ground swell will be dominant those days. So all told: Friday the 10th should run chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots. Saturday the 11th should run chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots. And then Sunday the 12th should run chest max at south facing spots, smaller at west facing breaks. But there could be an issue with conditions.
Models are aligning quite well on rain starting either sometime on Friday the 10th, but more likely over the weekend (11th-12th) from this odd low that should swipe through SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Starting out as a cut-off low, that model shows the point where it would regroup with the jetstream (thick black line), then combine with another low that'd dive south with it. I'll get to what all that means for rain amounts and timing in the Weather section below. As for swell, this is expected to kick up enough wind to generate this fetch just off the coast, which could bring wind swell Sunday the 12th into Monday the 13th (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That'd put 12' seas just 300 nautical miles from LA, resulting in at least chest high wind swell at SoCal's west facing breaks late Sunday the 12th into Monday the 13th, angled from 275° with periods 10 seconds.
So bottom-lining it: Friday the 10th could see fair conditions for the moderate southern hemi (chest high at south facing spots), but rain will likely be an issue for the weekend with wind swell following Sunday into Monday.
Tuesday the 14th, as the wind swell starts to back off, we should see minor southern hemisphere ground swell from this low latitude system (red arrow) you might recall from my last report (model from ECMWF):
That essentially shows the jetstream/storm-track, with the darker areas being the stormiest activity. The red arrow points to storm activity sending the swell to SoCal for the 14th. The blue arrow shows a slightly improved storm-track, bending the jet slightly to the north to send a bit more southerly swell our way, which I'll get to in a sec. For Tuesday the 14th, that low latitude activity should result in initially just waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. Better sized swell will follow as other storms are guided in the better-positioned leg of the jet to its east.
Friday the 17th (building day) into Saturday the 18th should see one such system that'd be guided slightly higher in the northward jetstream bulge, shown here on the 2-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks by Saturday the 18th, angled from 195° with periods 16 seconds. However, we may see slightly bigger swell at the same time as the 3-day models show a reform of that storm once it travels farther east (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Size on that works out to chest+ at south facing breaks, but angled from a SSE angle of 175° and periods 18 seconds. So all told, the weekend of the 18th-19th will more than likely see chest high southern hemi swell at south facing breaks. But I need a couple more days to confirm. In either case, the 5-day models show more activity in that region that could keep chest max sets going Monday the 20th and Tuesday the 21st.
And last but not least, I posted the latest progress report, which unfortunately shows donations have declined for a second month in a row. So if this report has been helpful to you and you'd like to see it continue, then I'd really appreciate your support right now (more on that here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 8th should run waist to chest at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 9th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Friday the 10th should run chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Saturday the 11th should run chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots. Conditions are a concern (see Weather below).
Sunday the 12th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots. Conditions are a concern (see Weather below).
Monday the 13th looks about chest high from wind swell at west facing breaks. South facing breaks will likely run waist high.
Tuesday the 14th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Wednesday the 15th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Thursday the 16th, so far, looks about waist max at most breaks.
Friday the 17th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 18th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 19th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Monday the 20th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 21st, so far, looks about chest max at south facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 7th) an onshore flow is underway as high pressure has weakened over the area. Marine layer development is minimal this morning and not likely Wednesday morning as northwest winds have increased in the outer waters, blowing over 25 mph just west of the islands and 40 mph through the Gaviota Pass this morning. Winds are much milder along the coast, but these outer water winds should help to scour out marine layer today while the thermal inversion over SoCal is minimal — hardly enough to support marine layer clouds. Air temps are cooling though, and they will cool even more later this week as this low approaches SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Models are much better aligned this morning with initially cloudier skies Thursday the 9th before rain at some point Friday the 10th, and heavier rain over the weekend (11th-12th). Most models delay the rain until either late afternoon Friday the 10th or sometime in the evening. The GFS model though shows rain passing through SB and VC in the morning Friday, then passing through LA by the evening, and OC and SD overnight into Saturday morning. So the southern hemi swell due Friday may see fair conditions, at least from LA south; however, southerly texture breezes are likely Friday the 10th (see Wind section below). All models agree we'll see rain Saturday the 11th with another band of rain Sunday the 12th. I'm sure I can nail down timing better in my Thursday report.
As for totals, models are in agreement on 0.75" along most of the SoCal coast from Friday the 10th through Sunday the 12th. The upper end models show some spots getting an inch.
Monday the 13th would see some clearing, but how much is still undecided amongst the various model scenarios. For instance, the ECMWF shows it staying fairly cloudy Monday the 13th and Tuesday the 14th before more rain comes ashore sometime Tuesday the 14th into Wednesday the 15th. The CMC model favors another shot of rain Tuesday the 14th as well. I'll see how models deal with this over the next few days.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 7th) should see a quick burn-off with max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 8th should see little to no marine layer with a quick burn-off. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday the 9th looks cloudy to partly-sunny with beach max temps in the mid 60s.
Friday the 10th should see rain approach SoCal. LA south will likely stay dry until the evening, but there is a chance of rain in the morning in VC and SB. Skies should be cloudy otherwise. Beach max temps should reach the mid 60s.
Saturday the 11th should see rain everywhere with beach max temps in the low 60s.
Sunday the 12th should see rain everywhere with beach max temps in the low 60s.
Monday the 13th will likely see clearing with partly-cloudy skies and max beach temps in the low 60s.
Tuesday the 14th may see rain but models are split on this with some showing clear skies. I'll have more on this in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores are expected to reach 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 8th should see AM light and variables picking up onshore late morning. Afternoon onshores should run 10-15 mph. However, onshore winds should increase to at least 20 mph by the evening, strongest from LA north.
Thursday the 9th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph from LA north and 10-15 mph south of LA.
Friday the 10th will likely see light southerlies in the morning to 5 mph, increasing to 10 mph by the afternoon and 15 mph by mid afternoon.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
