SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays

Thursday 10/29/26 5:33 AM
By Nathan Cool

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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 29th) we have moderately sized SW ground swell in SoCal with a light mix of NW ground swell and wind swell. Southerly swell picks up over the next few days. Wind swell has been downgraded for the weekend. Decent sized NW ground swell is due Tuesday the 3rd. NW ground swell is becoming likely by the end of next week. And potentially bigger NW swells are being watched for the 8th, 10th, 13th, and beyond. Condition-wise: rain due shortly; winds downgraded; tide levels are running very deep; water temps remain on the warm side; and advisories are in effect.

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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 195° and 9 & 15 seconds from 310°.

Most south facing breaks were running chest high. West facing spots were mostly waist to chest, bigger at SW exposed spots.

Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.5'.

Water temps were running 71-74° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 69-71° over the past 24 hours. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 71° this morning.

Tidal Advisory: Sea levels along SoCal are running about 18" above normal as the Marine Heat Wave continues off Baja and SoCal, causing thermal expansion. We're also experiencing naturally deeper high tides from the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle. While the tide tables account for the lunar cycle, they don't include the higher-than-normal sea levels from thermal expansion; thus, the tide tables need another 18" added to them to represent accurate levels. For instance, today's nearly 7' high around 11:00 AM is more along the lines of 8.5'. The NWS has issued coastal flood warnings and advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.

Water Contact Advisory: Rain is on the way, which could increase the risk of contamination from runoff in the surf zone. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.

Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 29th) we have SW ground swell in SoCal from this activity that was hugging the ice cap almost two weeks ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

We're also seeing intermittent NW ground swell from a system that formed earlier near Kamchatka. While the NW will decline Friday, more southern hemi will fill in.

Friday the 30th into Saturday the 31st should see a slight boost at south facing breaks as swell comes ashore from these two systems that drifted north off Antarctica about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should put south facing breaks into more consistent chest high sets Friday the 30th and then chest+ Saturday the 31st. Swell should be angled from 195-200° and periods 16 seconds.

Saturday the 31st (building day) into Sunday the 1st (peak) should see another boost in SW ground swell from this system took an ideal northerly course about six days ago, directing swell toward SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should produce chest to head high sets to south facing breaks by Sunday the 1st, angled from 205° and periods 16-17 seconds. Note that wind swell for Sunday has been downgraded with outer water winds much weaker and farther south than earlier model runs predicted. We should still see some southerly wind swell Sunday the 1st and Monday the 2nd, but in the waist to chest high range at south facing breaks, angled from 220-250° with periods 8-10 seconds. The southern hemi should be dominant at chest to head high both days. Conditions though are in question from the weekend storm (see Weather section below).

Tuesday the 3rd, as the southern hemi swell continues. we should also see NW ground swell from this system that broke off Kamachatka and is about to peak south of the Aleutian Chain (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That should produce chest to head high sets at west facing breaks, angled from 305-310° and periods 18 seconds. South facing breaks are looking at chest to head high sets from the lingering southern hemi. The NW swell should keep west facing breaks in chest to head high sets Wednesday the 4th while south facing breaks drop to about chest max. Both swells should back off Thursday the 5th: chest max at west facing breaks and waist high-ish at south facing spots.

Friday the 6th could see NW ground swell from this Aleutian system on the 4-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

On its own that would put most west facing breaks into chest to head high sets with swell angled from 305° and periods 16-17 seconds. However, models show a possible increase Friday the 6th and/or Saturday the 7th (depending on the model) from this cut-off low that could kick up seas not far from SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):

That's about five days out with models nowhere near agreement. Some models point to enough fetch to create DOH sets at west facing breaks (GFS-WAVE data) but most models keep this much lighter. I'll be able to narrow in on this in my Sunday report.

Plenty more NW ground swells are pinging the long range surf radar including this system on the 7-day models that would have an ETA in SoCal Sunday the 8th (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

Early numbers point to sets running head high+ at west facing breaks Sunday the 8th with swell angled from 300° and periods 17 seconds.

Tuesday the 10th could see a bigger NW swell; that is, if the 10-day models have it right on this notable system diving south in the Gulf (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):

That could increase west facing breaks into sets running 2' overhead with swell angled from 305° and periods 16 seconds.

Longer range models are bullish with many more NW swells (and possible weather) as the jetstream (green) takes on a classic El Niño shape, running unabated from the Western Pacific through SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):

It's a textbook El Niño pattern for strong NW ground swells (and rainstorms) as the jetstream sets up a speedrail for storms to barrel out of the Western Pacific, growing as they cross the North Pacific before slamming into SoCal. That is a look at the Pacific two weeks from now, but all models are in agreement today — and for good reason.

In case you missed it from my earlier reports this week, El Niño has become strong, yet may be reaching its peak (model from NOAA CPC)

If NOAA's PDF corrected models have it right, then El Niño is running a levels equal to — or slightly greater than — the 1997-98 and 2015-16 seasons. This jives with the jetstream forecast, which could bring an early arrival to the notable swells and storms we usually get in January and February during El Niño seasons. A complicating factor on this continues to be the marine heat wave (MHW) off Baja and SoCal, which shows no sign of letting up (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):

That marine heat wave started in 2025 and warmed a lot this summer when high pressure cooked SoCal with numerous heatwaves, while northerly winds were dormant, which would have otherwise caused cold-water upwelling. As with every El Niño, the Kelvin Waves in this year's El Niño added to this warmth; although, those were only a small portion of the abnormal warmth off SoCal and Baja (more on that here). Taking a year to get to this point, the marine heat wave has become well established and should continue for quite some time.

For the near term, the marine heat wave is quite concerning as sea levels are about 18" above normal. And as mentioned earlier, we have higher than normal tides this year from an 18.6-year nodal lunar cycle. This lunar cycle will create higher than normal king tides for a few years. In fact, this will be problematic this winter when king tides reach upwards of 7.5' around the Christmas holiday. That's the "predicted" height in the tide tables. Add another 1.5' on top of that from sea-level rise and we have a 9' high tide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. If a storm and/or swell comes ashore then, there would be potential for storm surge adding another foot for high tide levels reaching or exceeding 10'.

Overall, the North Pacific is becoming hyperactive with a lot to watch in the coming days, weeks, and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to monitor the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).

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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:

Friday the 30th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Saturday the 31st looks about chest to at times head high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.

Sunday the 1st is expected to see chest to head high sets at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots. Conditions are questionable.

Monday the 2nd is expected to run chest to head high at south facing breaks and chest max at west facing spots.

Tuesday the 3rd looks about chest to at times head high at most breaks.

Wednesday the 4th, so far, looks about chest high at most breaks.

Thursday the 5th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most breaks.

Friday the 6th, so far, looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks, much smaller at south facing spots.

Saturday the 7th, so far, looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.

Sunday the 8th, so far, holds potential for sets running head high+ at west facing breaks.

Monday the 9th, so far, holds potential for sets running head high+ at west facing breaks.

Tuesday the 10th, so far, holds potential for sets running 2' overhead at west facing breaks.

 

Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 29th) the onshore flow is increasing as a trough of low pressure is making its way south through the Gulf of Alaska, bringing precip to SoCal over the next few days. Models continue to be confounded on the exact timing and rain amounts as this system has not just one, but two areas of energy that would fuel this rainstorm (model by NOAA MAG):

Unlike most low pressure troughs with one low (yellow circle), another lobe (red circle) should sit south of the main trough with stronger energy. That red circle is forecast to have very high vorticity (spin energy), which should drive most of the precip to the south. How far south is the point of contention. For instance, here are rain totals from the GFS model, which is aligned with the ECMWF model this morning (model by NOAA MAG):

However, the GFS's AI companion model brings the bulk of the energy (and thus rain) farther north, centering it over OC, not northern Baja (model by NOAA MAG):

Only one model shows no rain: the NAM. All other models show rain, but with varying amounts and timing.

After mulling over a variety of models this morning, this is how'd I call it: Friday the 30th would see initial drizzle. Saturday the 31st would see drizzle+ with off and on light showers, and then a temporary break mid afternoon. The bulk of the rain would fall sometime Saturday night, starting as early as 8:00 PM but most likely starting right before midnight, lasting into Sunday morning (the 1st). Rain totals will likely run about 0.25" along much of the coast with 0.5" pockets here and there (75% probability). However, if the AIGFS has it right, then much of the coast would see 1" with spots in OC and SD upwards of 2" (25% probability).

Skies should clear out by Monday the 2nd as a weak offshore flow builds, peaking Tuesday the 3rd. Models then show another trough of low pressure by Wednesday the 4th. Models show little to no rain from that trough. The next chance of rain (so far) is slated for the 12th-13th — according to the long range models today.

Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:

Today (Thursday the 29th) should see skies cloud up throughout the day with beach max temps in the low 70s.

Friday the 30th looks mostly cloudy with drizzle and/or light precip at times, although trace to hundredths of an inch. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.

Saturday the 31st should see mostly cloudy skies with drizzle or light precip off and on throughout the day, with totals in the trace to hundredths of inch the most likely during the day. Rain should fall in the evening, likely after 10:00 PM, picking up by midnight, lasting through Sunday morning. Beach max temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday the 1st should see rain taper off throughout the morning, clearing in the afternoon. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.

Monday the 2nd should see clear skies with beach max temps in the low 70s.

Tuesday the 3rd should see clear skies with beach max temps in the low 70s.

 

Wind Outlook:
Winds at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight offshore element. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.

Friday the 30th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.

Saturday the 31st, so far, will likely see southerly winds pick up throughout the day, topping out at 10-15 mph in the afternoon.

Sunday the 1st is expected to see AM onshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 15-20 mph.

Monday the 2nd shoulds see light AM offshores to 10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph

 

Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!

—Nathan

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