SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 10/18/26 7:25 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 18th) we have a good amount of SW ground swell in SoCal. More southern hemi is on the way over the next couple days along with lesser NW ground swells. Light to moderate SW ground swell is expected for the second half of next week. And a better sized SW ground swell is being watched for 11/1. Condition-wise: rain due in a couple days; winds change in kind; tidal depths remain above normal; and water temps have dipped in some spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 17 seconds from 200°.
Most south facing breaks were running chest to head high, with overhead pluses at standouts favored by the San Diego Trough (page 111). West facing breaks were mostly chest high, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.5'.
Tidal Advisory: Tide levels are running about 14" above normal today as the Marine Heat Wave continues off Baja and SoCal. We're also in a tidal amplification phase from an 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle, which is creating wide tidal swings as well. While the tide tables account for the lunar nodal cycle, they don't account for the above normal water levels due to thermal expansion from El Niño and the Marine Heat Wave off SoCal; thus, the actual tide levels need another 14" added to them to represent more accurate levels.
Water temps were running 72° around most of SD and OC, although Mission Beach has been reporting 66-68° over the past 24 hours. In LA, many spots were hovering around 70-72° but Zuma reported 68° yesterday. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 69° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning.
Water Contact Advisory: Rain is becoming highly likely by Wednesday (see Weather section below), which will increase the risk of contamination from runoff in the surf zone. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 18th) we're seeing SW ground swell from this system that broke off Antarctica about nine days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Today is the peak of that swell but more is on the way from this second system that formed about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That and today's swell will overlap Monday the 19th to keep chest to head high waves going at most south facing breaks with pluses at standouts. Tuesday the 20th should see similar size as the second swell fills in further.
Monday the 19th, along with southern hemi ground swell, we should also see NW ground swell from Typhoon Koguma, which took this northerly course with decent sized seas (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Sets should be sporadic from Koguma's distance and course with size running chest+ at west facing breaks Monday the 19th, angled from 300° and periods 16 seconds. South facing breaks though will run more consistently chest to head high from the southern hemi swells.
Tuesday the 20th into Wednesday the 21st, as the southern hemis continue, we should see additional NW swell from a fetch diving south off the west coast, associated with stormy weather by Wednesday (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
I'll break down what this means for rain in the Weather section below. As for swell, this should add chest max waves into the mix at west facing breaks by Wednesday the 21st. Southern hemi swell should still run chest to head high at south facing breaks Wednesday, although with fewer pluses at standouts. Conditions are questionable Wednesday with rain likely. All swells should back down to chest max Thursday the 22nd.
Friday the 23rd into Saturday the 24th should see minor NW swell from that other, higher latitude system on that model above. We should also see SW ground swell from this low latitude southern hemi (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Neither swell is momentous by any means with waist to chest high sets at most breaks Friday the 23rd and Saturday the 24th. NW should be angled from 315° with periods 14-15 seconds and SW 195° at 17 seconds.
Sunday the 25th through Tuesday the 27th look like much smaller days, about waist max at most breaks.
Wednesday the 28th into Thursday the 29th will likely see light to moderate SW ground swell from this activity hugging the ice cap (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
This should produce initially waist high waves at south facing breaks Wednesday the 28th and then waist to chest Thursday the 29th and Friday the 30th. This should be angled from 205-210° with periods 16 seconds.
Sunday the 1st might see somewhat better sized SW ground swell from this system on the 5-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that holds potential for chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 16 seconds.
Looking toward the tropics, Trudy continues to be a no-go for SoCal swell but Vance — although not named yet — is worth monitoring, shown here six days from now (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That purple core represents 40' seas but its course isn't ideal for SoCal surf — although devastating for parts of Mexico. The red line shows where our ideal swell window starts, and Vance is well east of that on the models (so far). Running the numbers on that works out to chest+ waves at SoCal's south facing breaks that can work its steep, 160° swell angle, with periods 14 seconds (smaller at other south facing spots). ETA would be around Friday the 30th. If Vance tracks farther west then we'd see bigger surf, but no model shows that today.
On the El Niño front, models continue to show El Niño may be reaching its peak, but would stay fairly strong in November and December. It may then weaken quite a bit when we reach our normally rainy months of January and February (model from NOAA CPC)
For the past week this has been a departure from model runs earlier this year, but there is still potential for heavy, El Niño-driven surf and rain in the coming months. This just deepens the mystery as no two El Niños are alike — the forecasts bring insight, not assuredness. For instance, when taking a look at the last 100 years, we can see that El Niño doesn't guarantee high rainfall.
That's a chart I made looking at the past 100 winters for rainfall in LA. During that time, we had 21 El Niño winters, but 15 of them had above average rainfall; thus, a 71% chance for more rain than normal during El Niño. La Niña was present for 20 winters over the past 100 years with 6 of those bringing above normal rainfall. And of course a neutral-Niño is more common, but still has a 34% chance of bringing above normal rainfall. So no matter the El Niño, there is a 71% chance we'll see above normal rainfall — and bigger NW swells. But that also means there's about a 30% chance we won't. El Niño doesn't guarantee a wet winter. But it certainly raises the chances.
In any case, the Pacific is active with a lot to watch right now. And as long as I have your support then I can continue to monitor the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 19th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks (with pluses at standouts). West facing breaks should run at least chest high.
Tuesday the 20th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks and chest high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 21st looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks and chest high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 22nd looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Friday the 23rd looks about waist to chest at most breaks.
Saturday the 24th looks about waist to chest at most breaks.
Sunday the 25th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Monday the 26th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 27th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 18th) the Santa Ana is coming to an end as high pressure weakens and a northerly trough is starting to push south. That trough should dip further Monday the 19th to put an onshore flow in place. But then that trough should become a cut-off low Tuesday the 20th, which is when we'll see an even bigger change in the weather (model by NOAA MAG):
That low is expected to swing through SoCal Wednesday the 21st, bringing rain to most of SoCal. All models agree on rain and differ only slightly in amounts. Rain totals are estimated to be about 0.5-1" around most of SoCal, although possibly lighter in OC. Most of the rain should fall Wednesday the 21st with some lingering in the morning Thursday the 22nd. Some rain could fall as early as Tuesday night.
Friday the 23rd should see clear weather. A light offshore flow should develop Saturday the 24th into Sunday the 25th for a pleasant weekend with clear skies, slightly warmer temps, but no severe Santa Ana winds. In fact, the LAX-DAG gradients are coming in a -3mb max, putting this into the weak category for much of the coast (page 127).
Longer range models show another low diving south Monday the 26th or Tuesday the 27th, but models haven't been consistent with how far south it'd travel and if it could bring rain. I'll see how this goes over the next few days.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 18th) should see clear skies with max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Monday the 19th should be mostly clear with some thin, spotty marine layer early. Max beach temps should reach the mid 70s.
Tuesday the 20th should see a thin AM marine layer with a midmorning burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s. Rain is possible in the evening.
Wednesday the 21st should see rain most of the day with max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Thursday the 22nd may see rain in the early morning with clearing by the afternoon. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.
Friday the 23rd should see spotty AM marine layer with quick clearing and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 24th, so far, looks clear with max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 8:00 AM were calm to lightly offshore along much of the coast. Onshores are expected this afternoon to 10 mph.
Monday the 19th should see AM offshores 3-6 mph, picking up by noon onshore to 10 mph, and then 15 mph onshore by mid afternoon.
Tuesday the 20th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 21st should see southerly winds in the morning to 10 mph, picking up to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
