SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 5/5/26 5:40 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 4th) we have moderately sized NW ground swell in SoCal with background southern hemi. Initially light NW and SW swells are due Saturday the 9th. But a better sized SW ground swell builds Sunday the 10th into Monday the 11th. Moderate NW ground swell is being watched for the 14th and 16th. Light to moderate southern hemis are due around that time too, although a better sized southerly ground swell is being watched for the 17th. Condition-wise: precip in some spots today yields to fair weather ahead; winds trend seasonally onshore; tide levels are fair; and water temps have dropped in many spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running a mix of 12, 14, and 16 seconds from 300-310°.
Most west facing breaks were running chest high with some pluses at times at standouts. South facing spots were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5-7'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.7' (south facing) to 2.4' (west facing).
Tide levels are fair. Today we have a -0.1' low around 7:00 AM that will rise to a 3' high around 1:30 PM. That will barely sink to a 2.5' low around 5:00 PM before rising to a 5' high around 11:30 PM.
Water temps dropped around SoCal from upwelling induced by the recent outer water winds. SD and OC have been less affected with water temps around 63-65°, although Mission Beach reported 60° at one point yesterday and Newport Beach dropped to 61° yesterday. In LA, Zuma and Topanga dropped to 59° yesterday and Hermosa was 63°. In VC, the USCG readings were once again unavailable. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported just 55° this morning and the SB Channel has been running 57-58°.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 5th) in case you missed my Sunday report, I wanted to quickly announce the release of my new book
Wave By Wave : A surfer's guide to forecasting and our connection to the sea.
Here's a little about it if you'd like to check it out:
New Release: Wave By Wave
Take a journey into the hidden forces behind every swell and the ocean's connection to our human experience. After more than 30 years of tracking storms across the Pacific, Nathan Cool's latest book, Wave By Wave, takes you beyond basic swell prediction and into the deeper story behind the surf. From distant, powerful storms to the moment a wave breaks, you'll learn how to read the ocean with confidence and discover how these rhythmic forces bind us to the sea with a deeper sense of meaning.
Get the BookAnd now back to the report...
Today we're seeing peak NW ground swell from this system that formed about a week ago south of the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This swell should continue Wednesday the 6th with similar size as today, and then back off to waist high Thursday the 7th. Thursday the 7th should also see minor southern hemisphere ground swell, so most breaks are looking at waist high waves Thursday the 7th, and then knee to waist Friday the 8th.
Saturday the 9th is looking at a trio of light to moderate NW and SW swells. The dominant energy should be wind swell as this springtime pattern develops along the west coast (model by UQAM):
Models today have pretty much stayed the course from that earlier model, showing strong surface high pressure off the PNW that should interact with a strongly opposing low near the CA/NV/AZ tri-point region (red arrows). A tight pressure gradient should ensue, creating strong winds off the CA/OR border. It's a fairly typical springtime wind event for the west coast, which should whip up enough wind swell to put SoCal's west facing breaks into chest high sets Saturday the 9th and Sunday the 10th.
Saturday the 9th into Sunday the 10th, along with NW wind swell, we should also see spotty NW ground swell from this high latitude system coming off Kamchatka (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That works out to waist to chest high waves at SoCal's west facing breaks Saturday the 9th into Sunday the 10th, angled from a fairly steep 305° with periods 15-16 seconds. The third element in Saturday the 9th's swell combo should be from a very low latitude storm that was skirting the ice pack around Antarctica, resulting in waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and periods 16 seconds. But as all of this comes to a head Sunday the 10th, a better sized southern hemi should start filling in.
Sunday the 10th (building day with forerunners) into Monday the 11th should see decent sized SW ground swell from this storm that peaked a couple days ago south of French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That wasn't a great course for SoCal swell but the fetch housed impressive 35-40' seas. We'll get a decent glancing blow of energy (the angular spread shown in Wave by Wave). This should produce chest high sets at south facing breaks Monday the 11th with swell building with occasional forerunners Sunday the 10th. Swell should be angled from 195-200° with periods 18-19 seconds (forerunners would run up to 20 seconds on Sunday). This swell should continue at chest high Tuesday the 12th, and then drop to about waist to chest Wednesday the 13th, and waist high Thursday the 14th.
Thursday the 14th and Saturday the 16th could see moderate NW ground swells from these two systems on the 6-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Those are new features on the models this morning so they need more monitoring. Each holds potential for chest high sets at west facing breaks starting Thursday the 14th. The swell for the 14th would be angled from 195° with periods 13 seconds. The swell for the 16th would be angled from 305° with periods 15 seconds.
Friday the 15th and Saturday the 16th, along with the NW ground swells, we should see a couple pulses of southern hemi ground swell from a series of small-scaled systems riding this ideal northward bend in the southern jetstream (model by NOAA MAG):
That northward storm track should guide a few minor storms, each housing modest seas in the 20' range. Normally from that distance we'd see very little swell, but travelling ideally northward would result in sets running waist to chest high at south facing breaks Friday the 15th and Saturday the 16th.
Sunday the 17th could see an increase in SW ground swell as some of the 4-day models like the idea of this stronger system taking a northward trek in the southern hemi jet (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that holds potential for chest+ sets at south facing breaks Sunday the 17th, angled from 185° and periods 17 seconds. I should be able to firm this up in my next report (Thursday).
Tuesday the 19th into Wednesday the 20th is the next potential southern hemi swell for SoCal from this system near New Zealand on the 5-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That holds potential for chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 18 seconds.
There's a lot to watch right now across the Pacific. But as long as I have your support then I can continue this report to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential to keep it alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 6th looks about chest max at west facing breaks and waist max at south facing spots.
Thursday the 7th looks about waist high everywhere.
Friday the 8th looks about waist max everywhere.
Saturday the 9th is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 10th looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots; however, southern hemi forerunners are likely at south facing spots.
Monday the 11th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist max at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 12th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 13th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 14th, so far, holds potential for chest high waves at west facing breaks. South facing spots look about waist high.
Friday the 15th, so far, looks about waist to chest high at most breaks.
Saturday the 16th, so far, holds potential for chest high waves at west facing breaks. South facing spots look about waist to chest high.
Sunday the 17th, so far, holds potential for chest+ sets at south facing breaks.
Monday the 18th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 5th) the recent cut-off low is moving east, bringing light rain this morning to parts of SD but passing quickly. High pressure will build into the American West starting Wednesday the 6th, but we'll see a couple more days of cold air in the upper atmosphere, reducing the chance for a thermal inversion that'd thicken up the marine layer. Friday the 8th the inversion returns as high pressure remains to varying degrees over the American West. This should bring morning marine layer but temps will start to warm this weekend into early next week. A fairly robust area of high pressure should then remain over the region through the first part of next week for fair weather and warming temps.
The second half of next week will likely see high pressure move east as a cut-off low approaches SoCal. No rain is expected, just an increase in onshore flow from Thursday the 14th through the weekend of the 16th-17th — by the looks of things today.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 5th) should see scattered high- and low-level clouds through most of the day. Some precip this morning in SD (mostly south county) should end later this morning. Max beach temps should stay in the low 60s.
Wednesday the 6th should see AM marine layer with a midmorning burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the mid to upper 60s.
Thursday the 7th should see a thin morning marine layer with an early burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.
Friday the 8th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 9th should see AM marine layer with midmorning burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Sunday the 10th will likely see morning marine layer with a mid to late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were picking up onshore in many spots 5-10 mph with stronger gusts around 15 mph at times. Onshores should reach 15 mph by noon and increase to 20 mph this afternoon, stronger at times north of LA.
Wednesday the 6th should see AM light and variables with early afternoon onshores to 15 mph, and up to 20 mph mid to late afternoon.
Thursday the 7th should see AM light and variables with early afternoon onshores to 15 mph, and up to 20 mph mid to late afternoon.
Friday the 8th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables, onshores pick up mid to late morning, and reach 15+ mph in the afternoon.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
