SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 11/5/26 5:50 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 5th) we have a good deal of NW ground swell in SoCal and more is on the way. NW swell increases by the weekend. More NW swell is due early next week. Bigger NW is likely by the end of next week. And more NW is likely on the long range. Condition-wise: mild to moderate Santa Ana building; rain very likely after; tide levels to run very deep; and water temps have warmed in some spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 285-300°.
Most west facing breaks were running head high with overhead pluses at standouts. Direct south facing spots were mostly chest high from the wrap (page 77).
Buoys in the outer waters were running 9-10'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.5' (south facing) to 3.5' (west facing).
Water temps were running 74-76° around most of SD. OC was mostly 71-74°. LA was hovering around 72°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 70° last night. SB Harbor reported 70° yesterday.
Tidal Advisory: The tide will swing wider over the next few days as we approach a New Moon Sunday the 8th. With sea levels along SoCal running 13-15" above normal (as the Marine Heat Wave continues off Baja and SoCal) high tides rising to 6.5' this weekend will actually be closer to 8'. This will increase the chance for coastal flooding and further beach erosion. The NWS has issued advisories as well for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 5th) NW ground swell from the Kamchatka system got a backup boost today from this close-proximity system that formed a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
But this is just the beginning of a longer term trend as numerous NW ground swells are headed to SoCal from a shift in the North Pacific jetstream caused by this year's El Niño (model by NOAA MAG):
Right now, we can see the jetstream (green) starting to take on a more contiguous path coming out of the Western Pacific to aid in storm strength and swell growth, taking NorthPac storms deep into our swell window while lining them up with SoCal. That's how the jet looks today, which is only interrupted by high pressure over the American West, thwarting the jetstream to the north on the last leg of its NorthPac track. There's also a low (red arrow) to our southeast, which will conspire with the Santa Ana for the short term (more on that in the Weather section below).
Swell-wise, storms are riding along this ideal, lower latitude jetstream, which will become even more El Niño-esque later next week (model by NOAA MAG):
By the second half of next week, high pressure that was stopping the jetstream from running straight into SoCal will be farther east, providing a more direct jetstream path for storms to get not just close to SoCal, but run straight through our area. The forecast is filled with NW swells following that course, along with rain that comes into the picture later next week. I'll get to that in the Weather section below. But first, here's what we can expect in the way of waves.
Friday the 6th (building day) into Saturday the 7th should see NW ground swell from this system that peaked a couple days ago near the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That formed before the jetstream dropped in latitude so swell will be angled a bit steep on its arrival Friday the 6th into Saturday the 7th. While Saturday should see this swell initially fill in with chest to head high sets at west facing breaks (with occasional pluses from forerunners), Saturday the 7th should run head high at most west facing breaks with standouts up to 2' overhead. Swell should be angled from 305° and periods 17 seconds.
Sunday the 8th, as that NW swell continues, we should also get a backup boost of NW swell as that Aleutian system reformed today in the Gulf of Alaska with impressively sized seas (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should keep west facing breaks in at least head high sets Sunday the 8th with swell angled from 310-315° and periods 16-17 seconds. However, there is a chance for bigger waves at times from constructive interference (page 84) from the storm's Aleutian-originating swell having similar periods from its second swath of Gulf-originating swell. This could cause bigger rogue waves at times on Sunday.
Monday the 9th should see that swell continue, and another injection of NW ground swell is very likely from this system on the 2-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
On its own, that should produce sets running head high to 2' overhead at west facing breaks, angled from 295-300° with periods 16 seconds. Consistency looks high with short lulls and numerous waves per set. Rogue waves from constructive interference remain a high probability. In any case, all of this NW swell should continue Tuesday the 10th with at least head high waves at west facing breaks, backing down to chest to head high Wednesday the 11th.
Thursday the 12th should start out smaller at chest+ at west facing breaks, but later in the day swell could fill in from the next swell, which would peak Friday the 13th from this system on the 4-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that holds potential for sets running 3' overhead at west facing breaks Friday the 13th, angled from 300° and periods 17 seconds. However, it's at around this time when rain enters the forecast (more on that below).
Saturday the 14th would likely see that swell continue with similar size as the next swell fills in, peaking Sunday the 15th from this system on the 7-day (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that's coming in at 2' overhead at west facing breaks, angled from 300° and periods 17 seconds. Note that WSW wind swell is becoming a possibility around this time from a passing storm.
Monday the 16th into Tuesday the 17th could see the next NW ground swell from a robust, low latitude low pointed to by the red arrow (model by NOAA MAG):
High pressure (blue circle) over SoCal would make for a tight pressure gradient between it and the low, creating strong enough winds to whip up an impressive fetch with at least 30' seas not far from SoCal. The bubble of high pressure would be temporary though, with rain likely a couple days later once that wave-making low takes a swipe at SoCal. Yet that's out on the 10-day, making it too early to call.
Other signs point to more NW swell (and potential rain) from the jetstream's course. However, as you might recall from my earlier reports, El Niño may already be at, or nearing its peak (model from NOAA CPC)
NOAA's PDF corrected models have been aligned for almost two weeks now on the idea that El Niño could weaken before our bigger surf and heavier rain months of January and February. This raises the probability for hefty WNW swells as we get into December versus waiting until January. The heaviest rain could fall earlier than normal as well.
For the near term, a more concerning issue is the expansion of the marine heat wave (MHW) off SoCal, which is now reaching past Oregon (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
That marine heat wave started in 2025 and became especially warm this past summer from heatwaves that cooked the American West — and waters off SoCal and Baja. Northerly winds along the coast have been much weaker this year so we haven't had much in the way of cold-water upwelling, which would normally keep those waters cooler. So before summer got underway, that marine wave was very warm — and growing. As it warmed, Kelvin Waves in this year's El Niño added to this warmth; although, those were only a small portion of the abnormal warmth off SoCal and Baja (more on that here). With the marine heat wave so well established, it may stick around for a year or more after El Niño wanes.
That marine heat wave is causing issues for SoCal as it continues to raise sea levels about 1.5' above normal. This is compounded by an 18.6-year nodal lunar cycle that is creating higher tides this year, including king tides reaching 7.5' around the Christmas holiday. Add another 1.5' on top of that from sea-level rise and we have a 9' high tide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. If the marine heat wave continues to strengthen, then sea level rise could increase further.
And last but not least, I did want to mention that reader donations slipped in October. Donations fell into negative territory, falling short of what's needed to keep this report going. Since this report is funded by reader support, your contributions are needed to keep this report alive (see why here). So if you find this report useful and you haven't donated recently, please consider chipping in to help keep this report alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 6th should run chest to head high at west facing breaks with occasional pluses, and chest max at south facing spots.
Saturday the 7th looks about head high at most west facing breaks with pluses running 1-2' overhead at standouts.
Sunday the 8th looks about head high at west facing breaks with occasional pluses.
Monday the 9th is expected to run head high to 2' overhead at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 10th should run head high to slightly overhead at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 11th looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 12th, so far, is expected to start out at chest high at west facing breaks but with swell building throughout the day.
Friday the 13th, so far, is expected to run 3' overhead at west facing spots.
Saturday the 14th, so far, looks about 2-3' overhead at west facing breaks. WSW wind swell may be in the mix.
Sunday the 15th, so far, looks similar.
Monday the 16th, so far, looks about head high+ overhead at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 17th, so far, holds potential for bigger surf.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 5th) high pressure is building over SoCal, which will interact with a low (red arrow) to our southeast for a mild to moderate Santa Ana over the next few days. Here's that model again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
Models show the LAX-DAG gradient running -3mb (page 129) Saturday the 7th when this Santa Ana peaks — so light to moderate strength. Also, there's little to no Great Basin support (page 116) to fuel a strong wind event with high pressure there not much stronger than over SoCal; however, high pressure over Colorado will interact with that low to our southeast. Winds should remain below advisory levels but air temps will warm from compressional heating (page 143).
TL;DR - Skies should be clear with warming beach temps over the next few days with the warmest offshore day being Saturday the 7th.
The Santa Ana should weaken a tick or two Sunday the 8th, a smidge more Monday the 9th, and even more Tuesday the 10th. Wednesday the 11th then begins a transition to an onshore flow as high pressure exits to the east and the jetstream sets up a storm track through SoCal to drive rain into our region. Here's that model also to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
Models agree we'll see rain as early as Thursday the 12th, heavier Friday the 13th. A temporary break over the weekend of the 14th-15th — although not assuredly — would yield to more rain Monday the 16th, lingering for a day or two. After that, the extended long range models show a potential inside slider event (page 121) by Wednesday the 18th — by the looks of things today.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 5th) should see light AM marine layer, quick burn-off, passing high clouds at times, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Friday the 6th looks clear with max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Saturday the 7th looks clear with max beach temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Sunday the 8th looks clear with max beach temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Monday the 9th looks clear with max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Tuesday the 10th looks clear with max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Wednesday the 11th looks clear with max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Thursday the 12th could see rain. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with an offshore element. Onshores should run 10 mph this afternoon.
Friday the 6th should see AM offshores to 10 mph, up to 15 mph at times around the wind-prone parts of VC and OC. Winds should shift lightly onshore in the afternoon to 10 mph.
Saturday the 7th should see AM offshores to 10 mph, up to 15 mph at times around the wind-prone parts of VC and OC. Winds should shift lightly onshore in the afternoon to 10 mph.
Sunday the 8th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Monday the 9th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
