SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 11/3/26 5:45 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 3rd) we have a good deal of NW ground swell in SoCal with background southern hemi. A number of NW swells are on the charts today including one due at the end of the week into the weekend. Bigger NW ground swells are being tracked for the 11th and 13th. And an even bigger NW ground swell is being watched for the 15th. Condition-wise: mild to moderate Santa Ana in a few days; rain likely on the long range; tide levels run very deep in a couple days; and water temps remain well above normal for this time of year.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 18 seconds from 305° and 15 seconds from 195°.
Most west facing breaks were running head high. South facing spots were mostly chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 8-10'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.5' (south facing) to 3.5' (west facing).
Water temps were running 70-75° around most of SD and OC. LA was hovering around 71°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 70° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning.
Tidal Advisory: The tide will swing wider over the next few days as we approach a New Moon Sunday the 8th. With sea levels along SoCal running about 18" above normal (as the Marine Heat Wave continues off Baja and SoCal) high tides rising to 6.5' in a couple days will actually be closer to 8'. This will increase the chance for coastal flooding and further beach erosion.
Water Contact Advisory: Recent rain has increased the risk of contamination from runoff in the surf zone. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 3rd) we're seeing NW ground swell from this system that broke off Kamachatka and peaked south of the Aleutian Chain a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
We also have lesser SW ground swell in SoCal from an earlier Antarctic system. The NW ground swell is dominant and should continue at head high at west facing breaks Wednesday the 4th as south facing breaks dip to about chest max.
Thursday the 5th, as the NW ground slowly swell backs off, we should see NW swell in the mix from this close-proximity system, kicked up by a low that's now passing to the north of SoCal today (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
All told, Thursday the 5th should run chest+ at most west facing breaks with swell angled from 295-300°. Periods should run 12 seconds from the close-proximity system and 14 seconds from the fading Aleutian swell.
Friday the 6th (building day) into Saturday the 7th should see NW ground swell from this system peaking today near the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
While Friday the 6th should hover in the chest high range at west facing breaks (with occasional pluses from forerunners), Saturday the 7th should run head high at most west facing breaks. Standout west facing spots can expect pluses on Saturday running a foot or so overhead. Swell should be angled from 305° and periods 17 seconds.
Sunday the 8th should get a backup boost of NW swell as the Aleutian system reforms in the Gulf of Alaska with impressive seas in a couple days (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should keep west facing breaks in head high sets Sunday the 8th with swell angled from 310-315° and periods 16-17 seconds. However, there is a chance for bigger waves at times from constructive interference (page 84) from the storm's origin near the Aleutians having similar periods from its second swath of Gulf-originating swell. This could cause bigger rogue waves at times on Sunday.
Monday the 9th should continue to see head high sets at west facing breaks, along with at least chest+ waves in the mix from a close-proximity system on the 4-day models with swell energy angled from 295° and periods 13-14 seconds. All told, west facing breaks should see head high sets Monday the 9th, but with higher consistency and lulls merely being slightly smaller waves — calm lulls look less likely. This swell combo will likely continue Tuesday the 10th with at least chest to head high waves at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 11th could see the next NW ground swell from this system on the 6-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With 30' seas from that position, SoCal's west facing breaks would see sets running 1-2' overhead with swell angled from 310° and periods 17 seconds. But it's a bit early to call that today.
Friday the 13th could see a slightly bigger NW ground swell from this system on the 7-day (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
So far, that holds potential for surf running 2-3' overhead at west facing breaks, angled from 290-295° and periods 16 seconds.
Sunday the 15th could see yet another increase from this system on the 10-day (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That holds potential for DOH sets at west facing breaks, angled from 300° and periods 17 seconds.
These back-to-back NW ground swells could be followed by even more swells as models have stayed the course for the jetstream (green) to take on a classic El Niño shape, running unabated from the Western Pacific through SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
As you might recall from my last report, this textbook El Niño pattern can create strong NW ground swells as the jetstream forms an express lane across the North Pacific. Storms will get the opportunity to grow as they travel uninterrupted across the North Pacific, getting very close to SoCal. Note also telltale low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska — another marker of an El Niño pattern. Rain chances increase from this pattern, yet things are becoming a bit more complicated.
While El Niño remains strong, the marine heat wave (MHW) has become stronger and more widespread off the west coast from Oregon south past Cabo (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
That marine heat wave started in 2025 and became especially warm this past summer from numerous heatwaves that cooked the American West — and waters off SoCal and Baja. Northerly winds along the coast have been much weaker this year so we haven't had much in the way of cold-water upwelling, which would normally keep our waters cooler. So before summer got underway, that marine wave was very warm — and growing. As it warmed, Kelvin Waves in this year's El Niño added to this warmth; although, those were only a small portion of the abnormal warmth off SoCal and Baja (more on that here). With the marine heat wave so well established, even once El Niño wanes the marine heat wave may stay for possibly another year or more.
El Niño though may be reaching its peak, much earlier than models showed earlier this year (model from NOAA CPC)
NOAA's PDF corrected models have been aligned for more than a week now on the idea that El Niño would weaken before our bigger surf and heavier rain months of January and February. This raises the probability for hefty WNW swells as we get into December versus waiting until January. The heaviest rain could fall earlier than normal as well.
For the near term, the marine heat wave is concerning as it continues to raise sea levels to about 18" above normal. This is compounded by an 18.6-year nodal lunar cycle that is creating higher tides this year, including king tides reaching 7.5' around the Christmas holiday. Add another 1.5' on top of that from sea-level rise and we have a 9' high tide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
And last but not least, I did want to mention that reader donations slipped over the past month. The donation goal is now in negative territory, falling behind what's needed to keep this report going. Since this report is funded by reader support, your contributions are needed to keep this report alive (see why here). So if you find this report useful and you haven't donated recently, please consider chipping in to help keep this report alive.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 4th looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks and chest max at south facing spots.
Thursday the 5th looks about chest+ at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Friday the 6th should run chest high at west facing breaks with occasional pluses, and waist to at times chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 7th looks about head high at most west facing breaks with pluses running 1-2' overhead at standouts.
Sunday the 8th looks about head high at west facing breaks with occasional pluses.
Monday the 9th looks about head high at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 10th, so far, looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 11th, so far, is expected to run 1-2' overhead at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 12th, so far, looks about head high to slightly overhead at west facing spots.
Friday the 13th, so far, has potential for sets running 2-3' overhead at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 14th, so far, holds potential for sets running 2-' overhead at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 15th, so far, holds potential for DOH sets at west facing breaks.
Monday the 16th, so far, holds potential for DOH sets at west facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 3rd) a low is passing to the north of SoCal, increasing the onshore flow for cooler temps, some marine layer and high clouds, and stronger than normal NW winds this afternoon (see Wind section below). Once that low passes to the east Wednesday, a mild to moderate Santa Ana builds, with the LAX-DAG gradient running -2mb (page 129). This should peak Saturday the 7th at -3.5mb. This isn't a major Santa Ana by any means, especially since the Great Basin High should top out at around 1032 hPa with a weak to moderate cold air mass, providing little to no Santa Ana support (page 116). This should keep skies clear with warming into the weekend with mild to moderate Santa Ana winds.
Weaker high pressure should meander about the American West for the first half of next week before a rainy trough of low pressure swipes SoCal by Thursday the 12th. Models have stayed the course with rain starting Thursday the 12th, with more rain for the weekend of the 14th-15th from another storm. This as the jetstream takes on a classic, El Niño shape, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
More rain teases the long range for the 17th with signs of potential rain around the 20th as well. That's pushing out into long-range-land when models tend to become overly optimistic. Still, given the state of the Pacific right now, confidence is on the high side for more rain over the coming weeks.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 3rd) should see little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Wednesday the 4th should see a thin AM marine layer with a quick burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Thursday the 5th should see light AM marine layer, quick burn-off, passing high clouds at times, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Friday the 6th looks clear with max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Saturday the 7th looks clear with max beach temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Sunday the 8th, so far, looks clear with max beach temps in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Onshores should pick up by noon to 10 mph and run 20-25 mph this afternoon.
Wednesday the 4th should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 5th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Friday the 6th should see AM offshores to 10 mph and afternoon onshores around 10 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
