SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 8/30/26 6:25 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 30th) we have long-period southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal with background NW wind swell. Minor swell from Karina is due in a couple days. A decent sized southern hemi swell is due Friday the 4th into Saturday the 5th. Strong hurricane swell is being watched for Sunday the 6th. And moderate SW ground swell is due on the 10th. Condition-wise: cooler weather on tap; rain becoming likely on the 7-day; winds pick up shortly; the tide is swinging wide; and water temps remain on the warm side.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15-17 seconds from 195° and 8 seconds from 310°
Most south facing spots were running chest to head high. Direct west facing breaks were mostly chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 8'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.7-4.0'.
Tide levels are swinging wide from last week's Full Moon. Today we have a 0.5' low around 5:00 AM, a 5.5' high around 11:30 AM, a 1' low around 5:30 PM, and a 5' high around 11:30 PM.
Water temps were running 73-77° around most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 75°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 72°.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 30th) we have SW ground swell in SoCal from this southern hemi system that peaked about eight days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Today is the peak in SoCal, so Monday the 31st should dip to chest high with fewer pluses.
Tuesday the 1st should see the southern hemi fade further as swell from Karina comes ashore. However, this hurricane will miss our primary swell window as seen from space this morning (image from NOAA GOES):
The yellow lines indicate the SoCal swell window for hurricanes on Karina's path: moving mostly to the west with barely any northward progression. Karina is pumping up 20-25' seas now, and once exiting our swell window tomorrow will gin-up 30'+ seas. But that'll be too late for SoCal, leaving us with a glancing blow of swell from Karina's position yesterday and today, unfortunately resulting in a high amount of angular decay (page 52).
Running the numbers puts Karina's swell at waist to chest high at south facing breaks Tuesday the 1st, angled from 170-190° and periods 11-14 seconds. Today's southern hemi swell will have faded to that size, making it hard to differentiate which waves are from where. So all told, Tuesday the 1st looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks overall.
Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd look similar so far, although there is a slight chance that Karina could send us something if she turns northward a bit more. But anything greater than chest max is in the very low probability range right now.
Friday the 4th (building day) into Saturday the 5th (peak) is the next swell's ETA with good sized waves from this system that was near New Zealand a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That system housed seas in the 25-30' range, which works out to chest+ sets at most south facing breaks, head high at standouts. Swell should be angled from 205° with periods 16-17 seconds. Although this particular swell would wane Sunday the 6th, much bigger swell could come ashore then.
Sunday the 6th could see significantly sized hurricane swell from what will likely become Marie, shown here on the 6-day but becoming quite strong also on the 4-day model (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Not all models agree on that bullish scenario (surprise, surprise). But if that GFS model has it right then we'd be looking at 30-35' seas within a stone's throw of SoCal — about 550 nautical miles. The result would be sets running 3-4' overhead (easy) at south facing breaks Sunday the 6th and Monday the 7th, angled from 170-180° and periods 14-17 seconds. But as one might imagine, having a hurricane that close to SoCal smacks of weather — and it does. Rain is possible and with a fairly high degree of probability Sunday the 6th and/or Monday the 7th, which I'll break down in the Weather section below.
Thursday the 10th is the next swell on my charts this morning from this system near New Zealand on the 2-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Models have stayed the course from last week, keeping seas at 30'. That works out to chest+ sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 17 seconds. This swell would continue Friday the 11th before backing off over the weekend of the 12th-13th.
Looking out further on the SoCal surf horizon, models go quiet in the tropics in a couple weeks as meager southern hemisphere activity meanders in the low latitudes. This could result in at least a temporary lull in the SoCal surf zone starting two weeks from now. That, so far, jives with the MJO forecast calling for that hurricane-favored pattern moving out of our tropical region in a few weeks. The MJO is in our tropical region now, which coincides with the recent rash of tropical storms/hurricanes. But the MJO is just one of many factors that influence hurricane formation this time of year — El Niño is another, which is well underway at near-record levels. However, there will be a change in the overall weather pattern with low pressure troughing becoming dominant at times, which will not only affect SoCal, but hurricane guidance too. I've got more on that in the Weather section as well.
In any case, we all know the Pacific never stays quiet for long and needs constant monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 31st looks about chest max at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 1st should run waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 2nd should run waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Thursday the 3rd should run waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Friday the 4th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 5th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 6th, so far, holds potential for sets running 3-4' overhead at south facing spots. This though is based on Marie's forecast today.
Monday the 7th, so far, holds potential for sets running 3-4' overhead at south facing spots. This too is based on Marie's forecast today.
Tuesday the 8th, so far, holds potential for sets running head high+ at south facing spots. And this also is based on Marie's forecast today.
Wednesday the 9th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks. Yep, based on Marie as well.
Thursday the 10th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 30th) the heatwave high pressure system that was parked over the 4-Corners has now exited to the east, positioned over Texas today and weakening. A trough of low pressure is now pushing into SoCal ever so slightly, increasing our onshore flow. That trough will become much more robust, eventually digging through SoCal by Wednesday the 2nd (model by NOAA MAG):
I circled the trough in red. But notice the trio of tropical storms, each of which are facing cooler air to their north from that trough. High pressure should be well to the east by midweek, centered over Tennessee and Kentucky. That though is just a temporary transition though as high pressure should move back to the west by the end of the week, which would help Marie's guidance northward. But then a few days later, Marie, guided north from returning high pressure, could be subsumed by the Pacific trough, creating a stormy Fujiwhara that could bring rain to SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
As the trough's low (red arrow) spins counterclockwise, it would tap into Marie (red arrow) and draw her moisture into SoCal. The combined low would have more combined energy as well, further heightening rain potential. Some models show copious precip reaching parts of SoCal Sunday the 6th and/or Monday the 7th. Here's the ECMWF's take on the initial rain band for Sunday the 6th (model from ECMWF):
Some models show Marie getting even closer to SoCal, but all models agree (so far) that there would be rain. This has actually happened recently. You might recall Hillary in August 2023, which brought 3" of rain to downtown LA, and over 11" to the mountains. So rain from Marie isn't unprecedented and falls in the medium range probability bucket right now. As it stands today, all of SoCal could see rain from Marie Sunday the 6th and/or Monday the 7th. Most models lean toward the heaviest rain falling north of LA, with SB getting hammered with many inches of rain. This though needs much more monitoring.
After that, mild to moderate high pressure would build near the 4-Corners region, but not to the extent that a heatwave is concerning right now.
One last thing to note before the day-to-day is that marine layer looks thin to nil through the forecast. The thermal inversion (page 131) is weak thanks to the very warm waters off SoCal creating much less difference between surface and upper air temps. The influx of tropical moisture, although weaker at times this week, will also inhibit marine layer development. However, NW winds will pick up over the next few days, which could gin-up a coastal eddie (page 135), but that's in the low likelihood category right now.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 30th) should see little to no AM marine layer. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Monday the 31st should see a bit more marine layer with a midmorning burn-off and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday the 1st should see thin marine layer, early burn-off and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday the 2nd should see thin marine layer, early burn-off and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday the 3rd should see thin marine layer, early to mid AM burn-off and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Friday the 4th should see marine layer with an early to mid AM burn-off and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Saturday the 5th could see tropical cloud cover move in ahead of potential rain Sunday the 6th.
Sunday the 6th could see rain. I'll have an update in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should pick up by noon to 10 mph, increasing to 15 mph by mid afternoon. LA north could see stronger winds mid to late afternoon to 20 mph.
Monday the 31st should see AM light and variables with a slight southerly element. Onshores should increase by noon to 10 mph, 15 mph by early to mid afternoon, and up to 20 mph mid to late afternoon.
Tuesday the 1st should see AM light and variables with a slight southerly element. Onshores should increase by noon to 10 mph, 15 mph by early to mid afternoon, and up to 20 mph mid to late afternoon.
Wednesday the 2nd should see AM light and variables with a slight southerly element. Onshores should increase by noon to 10 mph, 15 mph by early to mid afternoon, and up to 20 mph mid to late afternoon.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
