SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 9/8/26 5:45 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 8th) swell from Marie is on the way out but still creating hazardous surf today. A moderate SW ground swell is due Thursday the 10th into Friday the 11th along with background westerly swell from Lowell. Moderate NW wind swell builds over the weekend. Light to moderate southern hemi is due Wednesday the 16th into Thursday the 17th. And light to moderate SW ground swell is due Sunday the 20th into Monday the 21st. Condition-wise: tropical weather shifts by the weekend; winds stay moderate for the most part; a tidal swing is underway; water temps are fair; and advisories and warnings are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 11 seconds from 190°.
Most south facing spots were running chest to head high with overhead pluses at standouts. Direct west facing breaks were mostly chest high, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6-7'. Nearshore buoys were mostly 3-4' with occasional nearshore readings near 6'.
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a New Moon Thursday the 10th. Today we had a -1' low around 2:30 AM. We'll see a 4.6' high around 9:00 AM, a 1.5' low around 2:00 PM, and then a 6.5' high around 8:00 PM.
Water temps were running 67-71° around most of SD and OC. LA was running 70-73°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 71° yesterday. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 69° this morning.
Hazard Warnings: Swell from Marie continues to create a number of hazards including rip currents, rogue sneaker waves, and high consistency. Advisories and warnings will remain in effect today. The NWS has issued warnings as well. You can see the latest warnings and advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here. Caution is advised.
Water Contact Advisory: Rain from Marie has increased the risk of contamination from runoff in the surf zone. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 8th) the shorter, lagging periods from Marie have arrived, making for lower shoaling (page 111). Being slower moving waves means standouts will see lower refraction as well (page 69), so pluses should be less frequent than previous days. This swell should back down to about chest high at south facing breaks Wednesday the 9th with pluses less likely.
Thursday the 10th, as swell from Marie continues to fade, we should see SW ground swell fill in, peaking Friday the 11th from this system that formed near New Zealand last week (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Thursday the 10th should start out with waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks — a combo of fading Marie and the New Zealand swell. Friday the 11th should then run chest high at south facing breaks with swell primarily angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds. Along with the southern hemi we should also see WSW swell from Lowell, which strengthened and retrograded to Hawaii a couple days ago (image from NOAA GOES):
Numerous warnings and advisories are in effect for the Hawaiian islands. SoCal will get just a glancing blow of energy Friday the 11th with size in the waist high range at many west and south facing spots. Since south facing breaks will see chest high southern hemi, Lowell's swell may go largely unnoticed with waves in the mix from 250-260° and periods 16 seconds.
Saturday the 12th, as southern hemi lingers in the waist to chest high range at south facing breaks, we should see NW wind swell start to build as this trough of low pressure (red circle) dives south into SoCal, housing a potent low passing through the PNW (model by NOAA MAG):
Wind swell should peak Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th with chest high waves at west facing breaks. Before then, Saturday the 12th, as the wind swell starts to fill in, west facing breaks are looking at waist high waves. South facing breaks should drop to waist high Sunday the 13th and Monday the 14th, leaving wind swell as the dominant energy in SoCal then. Wind swell and southern hemi should decline Tuesday the 15th with waist max waves everywhere.
Wednesday the 16th (building day) into Thursday the 17th (peak) should see light to moderate southerly ground swell from this system south of French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's not an ideal course for SoCal swell, which works out to waist to chest max waves at south facing breaks, angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should linger Friday the 18th and back off Saturday the 19th.
Sunday the 20th (building day) into Monday the 21st (peak) should see SW ground swell from two fetches forming near New Zealand. The first is this Tasman Sea system on the 24-hour models, which should bring the initial swell building Sunday the 20th (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
A lot of energy is lost from Tasman Sea swells by the time they reach SoCal as numerous South Pacific islands between them and us soak up swell. This also makes sets inconsistent with fewer than normal waves per set and long wait times between sets. As for size, this should produce spotty, inconsistent waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks Sunday the 20th, angled from 225-230° and periods 17 seconds. That's the initial swell.
Monday the 21st should see slightly better size and consistency as this fetch forms east of New Zealand, which falls better within SoCal's swell window (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That would produce chest max sets at south facing breaks, angled from 220° and periods 17 seconds. That's out on the 3-day models so I'll be able to confirm that in my next report (Thursday).
Looking out on the longer range, tropical swell continues to look lackluster as the MJO — which was over the eastern Pacific the past couple weeks — continues its global circulation to the east. One smallish tropical storm is showing up on the 7-day, but most models show it being too weak to be surf-worthy, hugging the coast of Baja. Longer range ensemble models show a variety of tropical storm potential on the 14-day also (model by NOAA MAG):
Each blue blob in that red circle is a potential low pressure system that could become cyclonic. That would put tropical swell in SoCal starting 9/22 or 9/23. But ensembles, which take dozens of models into account, tend to be bullish that far out in time, so those are mere footnotes for now.
Still, hope springs eternal in SoCal's tropical swell window as exceptionally warm waters remain off Baja from a marine heat wave (MHW), while El Niño remains well established, and strong to influence hurricane formation and course (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
We're already pushing toward the very strong El Niño category that starts at 2°C, shown by the arrow, and the forecast is on track to hit 2.5°C in October (model from NOAA CPC)
By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. So this year's El Niño might meet or exceed those memorable events (something I talk about in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud).
El Niño will have higher potential for NW swell and rain events this winter. For now it's keeping waters warm enough to favor an ideal course for hurricanes to trek well within our swell window — once/if they form in the coming weeks.
Elsewhere in the Pacific, things look rather dull. That's no surprise for the North Pacific this time of year. But the southern hemisphere looks less than impressive starting next week, making for smallish surf in SoCal after the 23rd, possibly into the beginning of October — by the looks of things today.
This all needs a lot more monitoring. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 9th looks about chest high at south facing breaks with fewer pluses.
Thursday the 10th should run waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Friday the 11th should run chest high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 12th looks about waist to chest high at most breaks.
Sunday the 13th looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Monday the 14th looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 15th, so far, also looks about waist high at most spots.
Wednesday the 16th, so far, looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 17th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing spots.
Friday the 18th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 19th, so far, looks smaller.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 8th) Marie — now a tropical storm with 45 mph winds — is sitting just off the SoCal coast, which we can see on this morning's cloud cover model by the ECMWF (model from ECMWF):
Tropical clouds and moisture will stream in today, and at times Wednesday the 9th. We could still see a sprinkle or two today in SoCal from this, although rain chances are very low near the coast — but non-zero. Currently, high pressure is centered near Texas but that high will expand, strengthen, and move west into SoCal Wednesday 9th, peaking Thursday the 10th. This, along with Marie's high humidity, will make for very muggy weather with beaches in the low 80s today and Wednesday — the valleys should see temps rise into the triple digits Wednesday the 9th and stay quite hot Thursday the 10th.
Friday the 11th should be a transition day as this trough of low pressure makes its way south into SoCal for the weekend, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
This will increase the onshore flow with a return of morning marine layer. Before then, tropical moisture will inhibit marine layer development. A troughing pattern should then stay in place through next week, possibly longer.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 8th) should see tropical clouds off and on throughout the day. There's a low chance of light rain most everywhere today. Beach max temps should reach the low 80s.
Wednesday the 9th should see less tropical clouds with mostly clear skies. Beach max temps should reach the low 80s.
Thursday the 10th should see clear skies and max beach temps in the mid to upper 70s.
Friday the 11th should see clear skies and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Saturday the 12th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Sunday the 13th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off by late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM calm in many spots with variable winds running 3-5 mph at times. Onshores should pick up by noon to 10 mph and then 15 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Wednesday the 9th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Thursday the 10th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 8-12 mph.
Friday the 11th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
