SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 8/4/26 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 4th) we have a light to moderate mix of southerly ground swell and NW wind swell in SoCal. Smallish surf continues through Friday the 7th. SW ground swell is due this weekend. Decent sized SW ground swell is likely for the end of next week. And another southerly ground swell is being watched for the 21st. Condition-wise: fair weather and winds at the coast; tide levels swing wider over the next few days; and water temps remain warm.
BTW, just a quick heads-up before getting to the forecast: July donations came in short (more on that here). So if you haven't donated in a while, now would be a great time to contribute. Thank you everyone!
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 190-200° and 11 seconds from 315°.
Most breaks were running waist high with occasional chest high pluses at standout west facing spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.7' (south facing) to 2.2' (west facing).
Tide levels will swing wider over the next few days as we approach a New Moon Wednesday the 12th. Today we have a 1.3' low around 7:00 AM, a 5' high around 2:00 PM, and a 1.5' low around 9:00 PM. That afternoon high will run later and deeper each day, nearing 7' by early next week.
Water temps were running 73-77° around most of SD. OC and LA were about 72-75°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 72° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 4th) swell from Genevieve is all but gone as a weak flow of southern hemi energy ripples into SoCal. Wind swell that peaked a couple days ago is on the way out today, so the sum total is small surf Wednesday the 5th through Friday the 7th with most spots topping out in the waist high range.
Saturday the 8th (building quickly) into Sunday the 9th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this system that traveled north off Antarctica last week (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That system peaked with 30' seas, which works out to chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds. This swell should continue Monday the 10th with maybe a slight decrease in size, about chest max at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 11th (building day) into Wednesday the 12th (peak) should see spotty, intermittent SW ground swell from this system with decent sized seas but a less than ideal course for SoCal surf (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Although housing 35-40' seas, its course resulted in a high degree of angular decay (page 52). Size should run waist to chest high at south facing breaks by Wednesday the 12th, angled from 205° and periods 18 seconds. This swell looks inconsistent so there should be few waves per set and long lulls between sets. This swell should continue Thursday the 13th.
Friday the 14th (building day) into Saturday the 15th (peak) will likely see SW ground swell from this system taking a better course near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30'+ seas on that course, SoCal's south facing breaks are looking at chest+ sets by Saturday the 15th, angled from 215° and periods 17 seconds. This is out on the 2-day models so confidence is high. After continuing with similar size Sunday the 16th, trailing activity behind that storm should keep at least waist to chest high waves going at south facing breaks Monday the 17th through Wednesday the 19th.
Thursday the 20th or Friday the 21st looks like the next possible ETA for southern hemisphere swell as some of the long range models show this system breaking off Antarctica on a decent northerly course (model from ECMWF):
That ECMWF model is the most bullish with 30'+ seas on a direct northerly course, which would easily run chest+ at south facing breaks, angled from 195° and periods 17 seconds. Other models though, including the ensembles, show a much weaker system. This is on the 9-day outlook so I'm sure models will narrow in on a single solution over the next few days.
Looking toward the tropics is dullsville at the moment. None of the deterministic models show activity even 10 days out. The usually-bullish ensembles show potential for the 14th-15th, but I'd discount that as outliers right now. But as we all know, the Pacific never stays quiet for long, especially as we're knee-deep in El Niño and water temps continue to stay above normal in our tropical neck of the woods. This all needs more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is critical to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 5th looks about waist max at most spots.
Thursday the 6th looks about waist max at most spots.
Friday the 7th looks about waist max at most spots.
Saturday the 8th is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks by midmorning, although swell will be filling in on Saturday, which could make sets spotty. West facing breaks should run waist max.
Sunday the 9th is expected to run chest high at south facing spots. West facing breaks should run waist max.
Monday the 10th is expected to run chest max at south facing spots. West facing breaks should run waist max.
Tuesday the 11th is expected to run waist to chest high at south facing spots with spotty swell and inconsistent sets. West facing breaks should run knee to waist.
Wednesday the 12th, so far, is expected to run waist to chest high at south facing spots but with inconsistent sets.
Thursday the 13th, so far, is expected to run waist high at south facing spots.
Friday the 14th, so far, looks about chest high on the better sets at south facing breaks as southern hemi ground swell starts to fill in.
Saturday the 15th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 16th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
This morning (Tuesday the 4th) light southerly winds indicate a coastal eddy that's thickening up the marine layer (see page 135). This, as the inversion is running about Δ10°F from inland temps remaining on the warm side, adding support for marine layer development. But with water temps well above normal, the inversion shouldn't get any stronger so burn-offs should be timely this week. Some tropical moisture is also expected to swirl into SoCal later this week, which tends to hinder marine layer development. So all in all, some morning marine layer should be expected each day this week with slight variations in clearing each day. Beach max temps should remain unchanged as well, with maybe a slight uptick Friday into the weekend as high pressure strengthens over the 4-Corners region. In fact, that high should tease the extreme 600dm heatwave mark late Friday into Saturday as the high moves a tad more to the west (toward SoCal). This might create a slight offshore effect, which would help for earlier burn-offs this weekend.
The high should then weaken early next week, dropping dramatically by the middle of next week as a low pressure trough pushes south into Oregon. This will likely cool SoCal temps quite a bit for inland areas, yet only somewhat for the coast. This would also make for a bit more onshore push to delay marine layer burn-offs until noonish each day.
Looking out even further on the long range, models show a more significant trough pushing south into SoCal latitudes Monday the 17th, which would create a much more noticeable onshore flow. That though is very far out on the forecast horizon so it's a footnote for now.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 4th) should see AM marine layer with burn-off late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday the 5th should see AM marine layer with burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Thursday the 6th should see AM marine layer with burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Friday the 7th should see AM marine layer with burn-off midmorning, followed by some tropical high clouds, and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Saturday the 8th, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer with burn-off mid to late morning and max beach temps in the mid 70s.
Sunday the 9th, so far, looks similar.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight southerly element in many spots. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Wednesday the 5th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 6th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Friday the 7th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
