SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 4/12/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 12th) we have mostly fading SW ground swell in SoCal. NW wind swell picks up today into Monday the 13th. Another round of NW wind swell is becoming likely for later in the week. Light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell is due by the weekend. Moderate southerly ground swell is becoming likely around the middle of next week. A better sized southern hemi is being watched for the 23rd. Decent sized NW ground swell is being watched for Thursday the 23rd. And we may see typhoon swell over the weekend of the 25th-26th. Condition-wise: rain today may affect Monday for some spots; springtime winds strong at times; tide levels are moderate; water temps are fair; and water-contact advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 190°, 6 seconds from 230-280°, and 12 seconds from 305°.
Most south facing spots were running chest high. West facing spots were mostly waist to chest.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5-6'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.7-3.4' with wind swell measuring about 2' on the spectrum from LA north, and southern hemisphere ground swell running about 2' as well.
Tide levels are moderate for now. Today we have a 4.5' high around 6:30 AM, a 0.1' low around 1:30 PM, and a 4' high around 8:00 PM.
Water temps were running 65-67° around most of SD, although Mission Beach reported 62° yesterday. OC was averaging 65°. LA was mostly 62-65°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 63° last night. In SB, recent USCG and Stearns Wharf readings were once again unavailable but the channel reported 60° this morning.
Water Contact Advisory: Rain passing through SoCal today will increase the risk of contamination from runoff. As a reminder, there is a risk of high bacteria levels for at least 72 hours following any measurable rain event (usually 0.1" or more) during which time water contact should be avoided.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 12th) southerly ground swell continues to fade from the New Zealand system that formed almost two weeks ago, peaking in SoCal Friday the 10th. Some southerly wind swell is in the mix from the passing storm, which may provide some sloppy pluses at times.
By Monday the 13th, we should see an increase in WNW wind swell as winds from the passing storm kick up this fetch with 12' seas off the coast (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a tad farther north than models showed last week, but it should produce chest max wind swell at west facing breaks Monday the 13th, angled from 280° with periods 8-10 seconds. Shorter periods are likely Monday afternoon when winds pick up (see Wind section below).
Tuesday the 14th, as wind swell starts to back off, we should see minor southern hemisphere ground swell from a low latitude system that peaked last week near Antarctica. It wasn't much, but it should result in waist high waves at south facing breaks Tuesday the 14th and Wednesday the 15th, angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds.
Thursday the 16th (building day) into Friday the 17th could see NW wind swell as this trough of low pressure pushes south, brushing SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
So far, that's expected to create chest high wind swell waves at west facing breaks by Friday the 17th, angled from 300°+ and periods 10 seconds.
Saturday the 18th should see wind swell decline as southerly ground swell peaks in SoCal from this system near Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should fill in Friday the 17th with initially waist high waves at south facing breaks, which could be equal to NW wrap from the wind swell peaking on Friday. Saturday the 18th will likely see the wind swell back off, with south facing breaks running waist to at times chest high from the southern hemi swell. That should be angled from 195° with periods 16 seconds. Size should then run waist to at times chest high at south facing spots Sunday the 19th, backing off Monday the 20th.
Monday the 20th into Tuesday the 21st could see NW wind swell from this trough of low pressure on the long range models (model by NOAA MAG):
So far, that's expected to result in waist to chest high wind swell at west facing breaks by Tuesday the 21st, lasting for a couple days.
Tuesday the 21st (slow building day) into Wednesday the 22nd (better building day) into Thursday the 23rd (peak day) should see southerly ground swell from a couple systems breaking off Antarctica. Here's the bigger system that would peak on the 23rd (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
According to the 48-hour models, that should house seas in the 30-35' range, although its course and position aren't all that ideal with hardly any northward movement, barely inside SoCal's swell window. Running the numbers today, that works out to chest high sets at south facing breaks Thursday the 23rd. Before then, Tuesday the 21st would run waist high; Wednesday the 22nd would run waist to chest; then Thursday the 23rd would be more consistently chest high. Swell should be angled from 175° initially, then 180-185° when the swell peaks on the 23rd. Periods should run 16-17 seconds. This swell should continue Friday the 24th. Before then, we may see NW ground swell come into the mix.
Two Western Pacific systems are showing up on the 6-day models that could bring NW ground swell to SoCal Thursday the 23rd, and over the weekend of the 25th-26th (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Up top is a WestPac storm that could bring NW ground swell for Thursday the 23rd. The juicy purple center represents 35-40' seas, which could bring at least head high waves to SoCal's west facing breaks, angled from 300° with periods 18-19 seconds. However, the GFS model takes that storm on a less than ideal course to the north, resulting in chest max waves for west facing spots. The NFCENS model above is the most bullish, but I'll need to see how all models deal with this over the next few days.
Saturday the 25th into Sunday the 26th could see NW ground swell from that second system, which is Super Typhoon Sinlaku. That storm was blowing 130 kt sustained winds this morning, gusting to 160 kt. That storm is expected to take a turn toward the east, and although weakening then, would still house 30-35' seas. That turn would send swell to the west coast of the U.S., which would work out to chest+ waves at SoCal's west facing breaks by Sunday the 26th, angled from 295° and periods 16-17 seconds.
These systems need close monitoring this week. And as long as I have your support then I can continue tracking the Pacific to keep you posted. Please bear in mind, this report is funded by reader donations. Your help is essential right now to keep this report alive (more on that here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 13th looks about chest high from wind swell at west facing breaks. South facing breaks should run waist high.
Tuesday the 14th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Wednesday the 15th looks about waist high at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Thursday the 16th is expected to run waist high at south facing spots. West facing breaks should see wind swell build later in the day.
Friday the 17th, so far, is expected to run chest high from wind swell at west facing breaks. South facing spots should run waist high.
Saturday the 18th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and at least waist high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 19th, so far, looks about waist high at most spots.
Monday the 20th, so far, is expected to run waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 21st, so far, looks about waist to chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 22nd, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Thursday the 23rd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks. There is a chance for head high ground swell at west facing breaks, but that needs more monitoring.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 12th) rain was passing through SoCal from north to south, but it's under performing with only about 0.1" (max) showing up in most coastal spots. Being a quick hitter, this should bring an hour or two of steady rain once passing through each of SoCal's five coastal counties with clearing into Monday the 13th. However, models show another round of precip by Monday afternoon, although that looks lighter and likely isolated to the mountains, not reaching the coast. I'm leaning towards a dry day Monday the 13th as the rapid refresh models show no rain at all along the coasts and valleys. Instead, I'd count on watching clouds form over the mountain by Monday afternoon as SoCal's coasts and valleys remain dry. Either way, all of this should clear out Tuesday the 14th.
Wednesday the 15th and Thursday the 16th will likely cloud-up a bit as this trough of low pressure pushes south toward SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That trough would barely push into SoCal, which, so far, looks dry. After high clouds Wednesday and Thursday, it could get clear and windy Friday the 17th as that trough starts to push east. Weak high pressure Saturday and 18th and Sunday the 19th should keep skies fairly clear.
Another trough is then expected by Monday the 20th, which most models keep just to the north of SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That looks like a dry trough, but it would bring cooler temps and possibly more wind.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 12th) should see a short-lived rain event with max beach temps in the low to mid 60s.
Monday the 13th should see clear skies at the beaches with clouds building up in the afternoon. Max beach temps should top out in the low 60s.
Tuesday the 14th should see a thin marine layer with a quick burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 15th should see a thin marine layer with a quick burn-off, followed by high clouds at times, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Thursday the 16th will likely see a thin marine layer with a quick burn-off, followed by high clouds at times, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Friday the 17th should see little to no AM marine layer, followed by clear skies and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 8:00 AM were onshore 5-10 mph in most spots with a southerly element. Onshores should increase throughout the morning, reaching 15 mph in the afternoon south of LA, but up to 20 mph from LA north.
Monday the 13th is expected to see early AM onshores 5-10 mph, 15 mph by mid to late morning, and at 20 mph in the afternoon south of LA, but 25 mph from LA north. Wind-prone spots from LA north could see gusts to 30 mph in the afternoon.
Tuesday the 14th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Wednesday the 15th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Thursday the 16th should see AM light and variables with onshores picking up mid to late morning, reaching 15-20 mph in the afternoon.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
