SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 9/24/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 24th) we have a moderate mix of NW ground swell and SW ground swell in SoCal. Swell from Odalys builds Friday the 25th into Saturday the 26th. Significantly sized swell is expected from Polo shortly after, peaking early next week along with swell from Dujuan and a new development near the Aleutians. And a moderately sized SW ground swell is being watched for the 8th-9th. Condition-wise: weather and winds shift more than once through the forecast; a tidal swing is underway; water temps remain above normal; and advisories are in effect ahead of Polo.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 11-13 seconds from 305-320° and 14 seconds from 205°.
Most west facing breaks were running chest high on the better sets. South facing spots were mostly waist to chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.8' (south facing) to 2.5' (west facing).
Tide levels swing wider over the next few days as we approach a Full Moon Saturday the 26th. Today we have a 0.2' low around 3:00 AM, a 5' high around 9:00 AM, a 1.4' low around 3:00 PM, and a 5.5' high around 8:30 PM.
Water temps were running 72-75° around most of SD and OC. LA was more varied with Hermosa 76° yesterday; Santa Monica Pier was 73° this morning; and Zuma reported 67° last night. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 74° last night. SB Harbor reported 72° this morning.
Hazard Advisories: Strong swell from Polo will very likely create a number of hazards by Monday 28th, lasting for a few days. While rip current risk will be elevated, rogue waves are highly likely with some that may arrive late in the weekend. There will also be an elevated risk of further beach erosion and coastal flooding as we'll be in a tidal swing with high tides in the 6' range when Polo's swell arrives. Although the NWS hasn't issued advisories or warnings yet, Polo's swell is becoming inevitable so I'm issuing these advisories today.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 24th) we're on the tail end of a NW ground swell that peaked in the Gulf of Alaska a few days ago, along with a New Zealand swell that formed almost two weeks ago. Swell is diminishing today, but not for long.
Friday the 25th (building day) into Saturday the 26th (peak) should see SW ground swell from Odalys, which appears to be nearing its peak this morning (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Winds blowing at 90 mph have whipped up seas in the 25' range on an ideal course for SoCal swell. When swell peaks Saturday the 26th, most south facing breaks should run chest to head high (chest high Friday the 25th). Swell should be angled from 200° and periods 14 seconds. This swell should continue at chest to head high at south facing spots Sunday the 27th, but that's when Polo will likely start to fill in.
Polo is on track (so far) to bring significantly sized swell to SoCal, periodically filling in Sunday the 27th with two peak days from its course Monday the 28th and then Tuesday the 29th. Here's how Polo should look when it peaks in the SoCal swell window a few days from now (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Polo is currently positioned off Mexico. In about 24 hours it should cross the SoCal surf Rubicon of 110W (blue line). That's when swell becomes focused on SoCal; however, swell will still be sent to SoCal prior to crossing that magic mark. Polo should then turn north while pumping up 35' seas as its winds howl at 160 mph. The problem for SoCal surf is that this swell will initially be angled from a difficult 155° when swell fills in, but become better angled from 160-170° when it peaks. This means standout south facing breaks that can work a SE angle will see the brunt of the swell while others get various levels of diffracted energy (page 77). But Polo's current course relies on this weather pattern, which will largely determine where Polo goes (model by NOAA MAG):
As Polo (red arrow) moves north this weekend along the coast of Baja, it should encounter a trough of low pressure (blue arrow) to its north. The trough, spinning counterclockwise with cool air, would deflect Polo, guiding the hurricane inland across Baja with no further northward trek. If the trough remains strong then this would occur. But if the trough stays just slightly farther north and/or houses warmer air than expected, then Polo could continue to progress north. That's what the GFS model showed last night; but today it doesn't, so that's the scenario I'll run with.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling Polo's swell right now
Sunday the 27th will likely see intermittent rogue waves from Polo's forerunners (page 43). Swell from Odalys will be its final stages Sunday so its chest to at times head high waves at south facing breaks could be interspersed with surprise outsiders at times. Primary swell from Polog should be angled from 150°, which would mostly skirt past SoCal (page 43). However, diffracted energy has potential to produce rogue waves well overhead — although rare. This could make for a day of unexpected hazards as what may appear to be a moderate day for surf gets interrupted by rogue waves with much bigger size that would run farther up onto the beaches.
Monday the 28th should see swell from Polo fill in better, but angled steep from 155-160°. Breaks able to work that SE angle would see DOH waves but other south facing breaks, relying on diffracted swell, would likely run 2-4' overhead. Minimally exposed south facing breaks would be smaller.
Tuesday the 29th looks like the peak day for Polo's swell, angled from 160-170°. This improved angle would reach more south facing breaks with bigger waves. Top-end calculations show breaking wave face heights reaching 15-17' at breaks that can work the 160-170° SE angle, but not as big elsewhere (DOH at direct south facing spots, smaller at less direct exposed spots). Periods would run as high as 18 seconds. Note though that a variety of periods should be in the mix, which is also affecting the automated surf charts here on WaveCast and other sites (page 161). The data for these automated charts (GFS-WAVE data here on WaveCast) show "dominant" energy, which from hurricanes this close to SoCal means short period chop. This lowers the automated wave height calculation. But when taking the longer periods into account then the calculations become much higher. So in short: max face heights will likely run 15-17' at SE exposed breaks Tuesday, DOH at other south facing spots, but there will be high consistency from other energy in the mix, and the automated charts won't align with the actual max forecast.
Schedule Notice: If anything changes dramatically with Polo before my Sunday report, then I'll issue an earlier report either Friday or Saturday. You can sign up for free email notifications at the top of this report to be alerted when new reports are posted.
Along with swell from Polo, two NW ground swells should also be in the mix by Tuesday the 29th. The first is from Dujuan, which peaked in the Western Pacific a couple days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Dujuan had 30-35' seas, which from that distance (about 4,200 nautical miles) and course should result in chest to head high sets at west facing breaks by Tuesday the 29th, angled from 300-305° and periods 17 seconds. However, given that distance, sets should be sporadic with fewer than normal waves per set and long lulls between sets; that is, if Dujuan as the only swell in SoCal, and it won't be.
The second NW swell in the mix Tuesday the 29th should be from this recent development across the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Staying in high latitudes means we'll get a glancing blow from its angular spread (page 52). But with impressive 30' seas, it works out to chest high waves at west facing breaks, angled from 315° with periods 16 seconds.
The Dujuan and Aleutian swells may not be noticeable though as their size could be equal to — or possibly less than — Polo's wrap into west facing spots, which would have much higher consistency.
Wednesday the 30th would likely see Polo's swell back off but still stay quite strong in SoCal. Early estimates point to surf well overhead, possibly upwards of DOH at south facing spots. West facing breaks would likely run chest to head high from the last of Dujuan and the Aleutian swell.
Thursday the 1st will likely see all of these swells back off further, but Polo needs more monitoring over the next few days.
Sunday the 4th is the next swell on my charts this morning from this mild fetch east of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With 20-25' seas on that northerly course, SoCal's south facing breaks should run waist high. Swell should be angled from 205° and periods 14 seconds.
Thursday the 8th (building day) into Friday the 9th (peak?) could see SW ground swell from this system east of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's an upgrade from earlier models, which now points to chest+ sets at south facing breaks, angled from 205° and periods 16 seconds. This is on the 6-day outlook so it needs more monitoring.
BTW: I archived my latest El Niño discussion about the Kelvin Wave warning for SoCal here, in case you missed it from earlier reports this week.
In any event, there's a lot to monitor over the next few days, weeks, and months. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 25th is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Saturday the 26th is expected to run chest to head high at south facing brakes and waist to chest high at west facing spots.
Sunday the 27th should run chest to at times head high at south facing breaks; however, rogue waves are possible from Polo.
Monday the 28th is expected to see the first swath of strong swell from Polo. As it stands right now, standout SE exposed spots are expected to run DOH; however, many south facing spots will likely top out at 2-4' overhead, with some south facing spots only head high. This, due to the steep 155° initial swell angle. Note this is based on short range models and needs more monitoring over the next couple days.
Tuesday the 29th is expected to see face heights reaching 15-17' at breaks with good SE exposure. Many other south facing breaks will likely run DOH. Note this is based on short range models and needs more monitoring over the next couple days. West facing breaks should run upwards of head high.
Wednesday the 30th, so far, looks about DOH max at standout south facing breaks and a couple feet overhead at other south facing spots. However, this needs more monitoring over the next few days.
Thursday the 1st, so far, looks smaller, likely head high max at south facing spots.
Friday the 2nd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 24th) a mild ridge of high pressure is over the region, which will weaken only slightly Friday the 25th. Saturday the 26th sees a trough of low pressure (blue arrow) push south into SoCal, peaking Sunday the 27th, shown here again to save you from scrolling (model by NOAA MAG):
That trough should bring a cool-down, but it should also stir in moisture from the remnants of Odalys and prefrontal moisture from Polo this weekend. High clouds will be present this weekend, and it could possibly bring a slight chance of precip south of LA by Monday the 28th. Rain chances are very low, but non-zero. Tropical moisture will also inhibit marine layer development, at least somewhat this weekend. That trough should also increase NW winds Sunday the 27th and Monday the 28th (see Wind section below).
High pressure then backfills the passing low Tuesday the 29th. In fact, models show a 2.5 mb offshore gradient then (page 127). It's not a notable Santa Ana by any means but should help with early clearing. Mild to moderate high pressure is then expected through Thursday the 1st before another trough of low pressure digs south Friday the 2nd.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 24th) should see burn-off midmorning and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Friday the 25th should see AM marine layer, midmorning burn-off, and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Saturday the 26th should see an early burn-off followed by high clouds at times and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Sunday the 27th should see an early burn-off followed by high clouds for a good part of the day, especially south of LA. Max beach temps should reach the low to mid 70s.
Monday the 28th should see fairly clear skies, at least from marine layer. Tropical clouds are likely, thickest south of LA, and highly scattered north of LA. Some precip is possible south of LA, but chances are very low right now. Max beach temps should reach the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should run 8-12 mph.
Friday the 25th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Saturday the 26th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Sunday the 27th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element, picking up by noon to 10 mph, and then 15+ mph by early to mid afternoon.
Monday the 28th should see AM light and variables with an onshore element, picking up by noon to 10 mph, and then 15-20 mph by early to mid afternoon.
Until my next report (Sunday, earlier if things change with Polo), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
