SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 4/16/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 16th) we have a light mix of southerly ground swell and NW wind swell in SoCal. NW wind swell builds later today into Friday the 17th. Light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell is due by the weekend. NW ground swell is likely Tuesday the 21st. Moderate southern hemisphere ground swell is due by the middle of next week. Strong NW wind swell though is being watched for that timeframe. A moderate mix of WestPac swells are being watched for the weekend of the 25th-26th. Light southern hemis are being watched for the end of the month into the beginning of May. Condition-wise: rain is a moving target for next week; winds shift temporarily offshore but could be problematic at times next week; tide levels stay moderate for daytime sessions; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 185° and 8 seconds from 315°.
Most breaks were running waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2'.
Tide levels are moderate for daytime sessions. Although we're approaching a New Moon Friday the 17th, the widest swings are mostly outside of daylight hours. However, dawn patrols will see negative lows this weekend into early next week. Today we have a 4.5' high around 9:30 AM, a 0.5' low around 3:00 PM, and a 6' high around 9:00 PM.
Water temps were running 63-65° around most of SD and OC, although San Clemente Pier reported 68° yesterday. LA was mostly 60-63°. For VC and SB, recent USCG and Stearns Wharf readings were unavailable but the SB channel reported 59° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 16th) wind swell is slow to fill into SoCal from the trough of low pressure pushing south toward SoCal. This wind swell should increase later today, peaking Friday the 17th at waist to chest high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 18th should see wind swell decline as southerly ground swell peaks in SoCal from this system that was near Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should fill in Friday the 17th with initially waist high waves at south facing breaks, which could be equal to NW wrap from the wind swell peaking Friday. Saturday the 18th should see the wind swell back off as south facing breaks run waist to chest high from the southern hemi swell. The southern hemi should be angled from 195° with periods 16 seconds. Size should then run waist to at times chest high at south facing spots Sunday the 19th. Monday the 20th looks smaller everywhere.
Tuesday the 21st should see an increase in NW ground swell from this fetch off the PNW (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Models take that on an almost direct southerly course, which, according to the 2-day models, would produce inconsistent chest max waves at west facing breaks Tuesday the 21st, angled from 310° and periods 12-14 seconds. This would be in response to what is now looking like a cut-off low, which is complicating the wave, wind, and weather forecast for early next week (model by NOAA MAG):
Models have been all over the place with this feature, which at first was forecast to be a moderate trough, then a super strong trough, but now a low lacking jetstream guidance. That cut-off low would wobble about, playing a game of weather roulette with SoCal. I'll talk about rain in the Weather section below. As for swell, this could increase wind swell a couple days later, with potentially head high wind swell at west facing breaks Thursday the 23rd through Saturday the 25th. That's when some — but not all — models take that cut-off low east, passing through SoCal. That's a complete departure from earlier models that showed little to no wind swell late next week. I'll need to see how models deal with this over the next few days.
Wednesday the 22nd (building day) into Thursday the 23rd (peak day) should see southerly ground swell from this system that broke off Antarctica a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
If the hefty wind swell develops from the cut-off low then this southern hemi could go unnoticed. On its own, the southern hemi swell would initially put south facing breaks into waist to chest high sets Wednesday the 22nd, and then chest high Thursday the 23rd, angled from 180-185° and periods 16 seconds. Wind swell could be dominant, but that's undetermined right now with models too far apart to call at the moment.
Saturday the 25th into Sunday the 26th could see NW ground swell from two storms breaking out of the Western Pacific, with Typhoon Sinlaku being the more noteworthy one today. Here's how they look on this morning's model run, along with the Gulf system bringing earlier swell (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
The fetch in the center is a downgrade from earlier model runs, working out to just waist high waves in the mix. But Sinlaku is still expected to whip up 30' seas, which would produce chest+ waves at SoCal's west facing breaks by Sunday the 26th. Saturday the 25th would likely run waist to at times chest high from the preceding swell and Sinlaku's initial arrival along the west coast. Swell would be angled from 295° from both swells with the longer periods running 17 seconds. Note that models show a reform of Sinlaku half way across the North Pacific, which could produce chest to head high sets at west facing breaks by Sunday the 26th. That reform is out on the 5-day models. I'll be able to narrow in on this in my next report.
Next up on my morning list of storms pinging the SoCal surf radar are smallish southern hemis for Thursday the 30th. One would be from a Tasman Sea storm on the 2-day models, but with just 25' seas between Australia and New Zealand SoCal wouldn't get much, perhaps waist max from 230° and periods 15 seconds. Also on the 30th could be swell from a deep low latitude storm on the 5-day models south of Pitcairn, which also looks like a waist max swell for south facing breaks, angled from 180° with periods 17 seconds.
Longer range models shine dim rays of surfable hope on the weekend of 5/2-5/3 from activity south of French Polynesia. It's a footnote for now with light to maybe moderate swell. It's too early to entertain today but as long as I have your support then I can continue tracking wave-making storms across the Pacific and keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential right now to keep this report alive (more on that here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 17th is expected to run chest max from wind swell at west facing breaks. South facing spots should run waist high.
Saturday the 18th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and at least waist high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 19th looks about waist high at most spots with some pluses at south facing spots.
Monday the 20th is expected to run waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 21st, is expected to run chest max at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 22nd, so far, looks about waist to chest at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 23rd, so far, holds potential for strong NW wind swell in SoCal. It's at this point where models diverge — big time.
Friday the 24th, so far, is also a wildcard that depends on wind swell development.
Saturday the 25th, so far, is also a wildcard that depends on wind swell development.
Sunday the 26th, so far, will likely see wind swell back off as WestPac ground swell brings chest+ waves to west facing breaks. However, wind swell still needs more monitoring.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 16th) a trough of low pressure is pushing south toward SoCal, temporarily increasing the onshore flow. As that trough moves east Friday, a short-lived Santa Ana is expected to form. Winds look mild to moderate in most spots, with VC getting the brunt of the coastal winds (as usual). Still, winds don't look brutal (see Wind section below) but it'll be enough to keep skies clear at the coast Friday, with minimal marine layer this weekend.
Monday the 20th through Thursday the 23rd will be under the influence of what now looks like a cut-off low that'd sit and spin off the coast, eventually traveling east into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
Models are all over the place with this. Now being a cut-off low instead of a trough that models forecast earlier, rain, cloud cover, winds, and temps are collective chaos across the models. The more likely scenario right now is for an increased onshore flow Monday with AM marine layer But Tuesday is where models diverge even more. For instance, the ECMWF seems confident bringing rain into SoCal Tuesday the 21st, but the GFS holds off until Wednesday the 22nd. Amounts are all over the place too, anywhere from 0.1 to 0.5", with models highly inconsistent on "where" those totals would be (some show high amounts north of LA, others farther south).
The cut-off low may not exit the region until Friday the 24th, but almost assuredly by Saturday the 25th. High pressure coupled with a moderate Santa Ana becomes likely — by the looks of things today.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 16th) should see marine layer gone by midmorning followed by a good deal of high clouds and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Friday the 17th should see little to no AM marine layer, followed by clear skies and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 18th, so far, is expected to see little to no marine layer. However, there may be a light coastal eddy south of LA for marine layer across OC and SD. Either way, that too should burn-off early. Skies should then be partly cloudy with beach max temps around 70°.
Sunday the 19th is expected to see AM marine layer with an early burn-off, a fair amount of high clouds, and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Monday the 20th will more than likely stay rain-free. AM marine layer is likely with an early burn-off and max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Tuesday the 21st is when rain could start. There's a 60% chance of rain starting Tuesday, but other models hold off until Wednesday. I'll narrow in on this in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should reach 10-15 mph.
Friday the 17th should see AM offshores to 10 mph in most spots, stronger across VC with the most wind-prone spots seeing gusts to 20 mph midmorning, but with sustained winds 10-15 mph offshore. All areas should see afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Saturday the 18th is expected to see AM offshores to 10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Sunday the 19th is expected to see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Monday the 20th, so far, is expected to see early AM southerlies 4-8 mph, increasing to 15-20 mph by the afternoon from the WSW.
Tuesday the 21st could be blown-out early. I'll have more in my next report.
Until my next report (Saturday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
