SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 6/14/26 5:35 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 14th) we have a fair amount of southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal. A slightly better sized SW ground swell is due by Wednesday the 17th. Moderate SW ground swell builds this coming weekend. A decent sized SW ground swell is due Wednesday the 24th. And moderate SW ground swell is being watched for the 28th-29th. Condition-wise: redundant June Gloom pattern this week; winds stay moderate with an onshore trend; a tidal swing is underway; and water temps are up in many spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 17 seconds from 190°.
Most south facing spots were running head chest high with occasional head high pluses at standouts. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist to chest, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.5'.
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a New Moon tonight. Typical for this time of year, the peak swings will be mostly outside of daylight hours. Today we have a -1.7' low around 4:00 AM, a 3.7' high around 10:30 AM, a 2' low around 3:00 PM, and a 7' high around 9:00 PM.
Water temps were running 67-70° around most of SD. OC was hovering around 67°, although Huntington Beach continues to report 61°. LA was mostly 65-67°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 63-67° over the past 12 hours. In SB, USCG and Stearns Wharf readings weren't current, but the SB channel reported 62° this morning.
Hazard Warnings: Southern hemisphere ground swell continues to increase the risk of rip currents this week, especially at south facing breaks and especially during the outgoing tides. The NWS has issued warnings as well for SB, VC, and LA here, and OC and SD here. Caution is advised.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 14th) is the peak day for SW swell that originated from this storm that broke off Antarctica about nine days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This swell should continue Monday the 15th at chest high at south facing spots. Meantime, NW wind swell is all but gone and no major wind swell events are expected for at least a week. Southern hemisphere ground swell will be the dominant energy in SoCal with a number of swells headed our way.
Tuesday the 16th (building day) into Wednesday the 17th (peak) should see decent sized SW ground swell from this New Zealand system that formed about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
At first, that storm's easterly course sent a fraction of its long-period ground swell to SoCal with a high degree of loss from its initial angular spread (page 52). That portion will arrive Tuesday the 16th with inconsistent swell. But the northerly course off the east coast of New Zealand — when the storm weakened — will result in swell building later in the day Tuesday the 16th, peaking Wednesday the 17th. With 50' seas initially and then 40' on its northerly course, we should see inconsistent sets early in the morning Tuesday the 16th running head high at times at south facing breaks; however, there should be few waves on those sets and long lulls between them, so the average wave height may run chest high initially. Swell should then become a bit more consistent in the afternoon, with somewhat consistent sets Wednesday the 17th running head high to a foot overhead (but still with long wait times between sets). Swell should be angled from 210-215° with periods 19-21 seconds initially. This swell should back down to chest to head high at south facing spots Thursday the 18th, and then chest high Friday the 19th.
Saturday the 20th (building day) into Sunday the 21st (peak) should see SW ground swell from the first of these two low latitude storms (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Saturday the 20th should start out with waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks, building throughout the day to its peak Sunday the 21st at a more consistent chest high. The system behind it should keep chest high waves going at south facing breaks Monday the 22nd, and then waist to chest Tuesday the 23rd. Swell should be angled from 210° with periods 15-16 seconds.
Wednesday the 24th should see the next SW ground swell from this system drifting north off the ice pack (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's just 24 hours out, so it's safe enough to call it today for chest high waves on the average sets at south facing breaks, but up to head high at standouts. Swell should be angled from 205° and periods 17-18 seconds. This swell should continue at chest to at times head high Thursday the 25th; chest high Friday the 26th; and then waist to chest Saturday the 27th.
Sunday the 28th could see the next southern hemi swell from this system on the 4-day models (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's not a great course for SoCal swell, but with 35' seas it'd produce chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 18 seconds. This swell would likely continue Monday the 29th with similar size before backing down Tuesday the 30th.
Looking out on the longer range, most models show increased activity in the tropical east- and west-Pacific with surf-worthy potential for SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
On the right is potential hurricane activity that'd put southerly swell in SoCal around the 26th, and on the left is a potential typhoon that would send NW swell to SoCal for the 29th. These need more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific and keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is critical to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 15th looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 16th is expected to run chest high on the average sets at south facing breaks but head high on the better set waves. Sets look inconsistent as swell fills in.
Wednesday the 17th is expected to run head high to a foot overhead at south facing breaks, but sets may be inconsistent with long lulls between sets and fewer than normal waves per set.
Thursday the 18th looks about head high at south facing spots, but with the same inconsistency issue.
Friday the 19th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 20th looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 21st looks about chest+ at south facing breaks.
Monday the 22nd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 23rd, so far, looks about waist to chest high at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 24th, so far, looks about chest to at times head high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 25th, so far, looks about chest to at times head high at south facing spots.
Friday the 26th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 14th) through the rest of the week should see minor day-to-day differences in weather along the SoCal coast. Right now, moderate high pressure is centered over California, which will weaken by the end of the week when a low pressure trough sags south. Although that will drag cooler air into the region, the thermal inversion (page 131) won't change as the upper- and lower-level air temps remain in lockstep at Δ5-10°F a mile above sea level — a zero-sum game for the marine layer. Air temps will cool a bit, but hardly noticeable at the coast this week. Longer range models then show either a flat zonal flow this coming weekend into the week of the 22nd, or possibly more low pressure troughing. No major high pressure systems are in the forecast so no heat waves are in the forecast either.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 14th) should see the marine layer dissipate by noon with max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Monday the 15th should see AM marine layer with burn-off late morning to noon and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tuesday the 16th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon and max beach temps in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Wednesday the 17th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon or early afternoon and max beach temps in the upper 60s to about 70° max.
Thursday the 18th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by early afternoon and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday the 19th should see AM marine layer with burn-off by noon or early afternoon and max beach temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight onshore element. Afternoon onshores should reach 15 mph.
Monday the 15th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Tuesday the 16th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Wednesday the 17th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Thursday the 18th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Friday the 19th should see AM light and variables with a slight onshore element and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
