SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Sunday 8/23/26 6:55 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Sunday the 23rd) we have light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal with minimal NW wind swell. Southerly swell from Iselle is due in a few days. Good sized SW ground swell is due this coming weekend (29th-30th). Tropical swell is becoming likely for Tuesday the 1st. A decent sized southern hemi swell is being watched for the 4th-5th. And hurricane swell is being monitored for the 5th-6th. Condition-wise: dog days this week but relief is on the long range; winds stay moderate for the most part; tide levels are fair; and water temps are on the warm side.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 15 seconds from 195°.
Most south facing spots were running waist to chest high. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 6'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.9-2.2'.
Tide levels are moderate. Today we have a 3.7' high around 9:00 AM that will slowly slide to a 3' low around 1:30 PM. The tide then rises to 5.5' high around 7:30 PM. Note that the evening high will run 6' later this week as we approach a Full Moon Thursday the 27th.
Water temps were hovering around 70-74° in most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 69-72° over the past 24 hours. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 70° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Sunday the 23rd) we're seeing SW ground swell from this system that took a favorable northward course off Antarctica about ten days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That and another system that formed behind it should keep south facing breaks in waist to chest high waves Monday the 24th. Tuesday the 25th should start out similar, but late in the day an increase is expected as the next swell starts to fill in.
Wednesday the 26th (building late Tuesday the 25th) should see southerly swell from Iselle, which is a tropical storm now and should become a CAT-1 hurricane tomorrow afternoon (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Iselle's initially northerly course is ideal since seas should top out at just 20'. This works out to chest to head high sets at south facing breaks Wednesday the 26th, angled from 170° and periods 13 seconds. Size should dip to chest high with fewer pluses Thursday the 27th when swell from her westerly turn, and thus higher angular spread, reaches SoCal (page 52). Size will likely drop to chest max Friday the 28th. All models are in agreement this morning so confidence is high.
Saturday the 29th (building early and quickly) into Sunday the 30th should see decent sized SW ground swell from this southern hemi system you might recall from last week's reports that took a high latitude course (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should put most south facing breaks into chest to head high sets, angled from 200° with periods 17 seconds. This swell will likely back off to chest max Monday the 31st and waist to chest Tuesday the 1st.
Along with southern hemi ground swell, Sunday the 30th could also see light to moderate NW wind swell in the mix from a trough of low pressure that'd push south toward SoCal (more on that in the Weather section below). So far winds look just strong enough in the outer waters to stir up waist to chest high wind swell waves for west facing breaks starting Sunday the 30th, lasting for a few days. Southern hemi ground swell would be dominant, but this is where things get interesting.
Two more hurricane swells are in the forecast that coincide with the MJO's return (see pages 85-88 in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud). Waters are primed and ready with warmer than normal waters from El Niño and a marine heat wave off Mexico, Baja, and SoCal. Lala and Moke in the Central Pacific — affecting Hawaii with heavy rains — jive with the MJO's eastward progression the past couple weeks from the Western Pacific, and now Iselle signals the MJO pushing farther east toward our region, increasing hurricane potential over the next few weeks.
Tuesday the 1st could see swell from the first of those two hurricanes, shown here on the 7-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Swell for Tuesday the 1st should be from storm #1, which will likely be named Julio. Early estimates point to 25' seas, which on that course works out to head high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 170-175° and periods 15 seconds. This swell would likely continue to a somewhat lesser degree Wednesday the 2nd and then fade Thursday the 3rd. But before swell from storm #2 reaches SoCal, something more inevitably surf-worthy would come ashore.
Friday the 4th (building early and quickly) into Saturday the 5th will likely see good sized SW ground swell from this system on the 3-day-plus models near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
While the position of that fetch would easily work out to chest high waves at south facing breaks, all models agree that a few days later it would travel on a more northeasterly course, reaching higher latitudes for less distance decay (page 50). Swell would arrive around the same time (4th-5th), but size works out to head high at south facing breaks. So the call for now is for chest to head high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 210° and 195° with periods 17 seconds. I'll be able to call this with higher confidence in a couple days. But the weekend of the 5th-6th could see something bigger.
Saturday the 5th and/or Sunday the 6th is the current timeframe from swell #2 on that earlier model, shown here on the 10-day (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Julio (for the 1st) will have passed and weakened as Karina (next name on the list) pumps up 33-40' seas on a wave-worthy course for SoCal. That would equate to DOH sets at south facing breaks, angled from 170-175° and periods 18 seconds. This needs a lot more monitoring, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Monday the 24th looks about chest max at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 25th looks about chest max at south facing spots; however, hurricane swell should build late in the day, at least forerunners (page 43).
Wednesday the 26th is expected to run chest to head high at south facing spots.
Thursday the 27th looks about chest to at times head high at south facing spots.
Friday the 28th should run chest max at south facing spots.
Saturday the 29th is expected to run chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 30th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Monday the 31st, so far, looks about chest max at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing breaks.
Tuesday the 1st, so far, holds potential for head high hurricane swell at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 2nd, so far, looks about high high max at south facing breaks.
Thursday the 3rd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Friday the 4th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 5th, so far, looks similar; however, there is a chance for much bigger hurricane swell to start filling into SoCal. I'll have more on that in my next report.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Sunday the 23rd) through Saturday the 29th, SoCal will endure a dog-day heatwave as high pressure remains parked near the 4-Corner's region, but with a twist (model by NOAA MAG):
That 597dm high is fairly strong, but the seemingly benign, weak low pressure off the coast will create a northerly gradient, increasing enough offshore flow (from the north, not northeast) to create compressional heating (page 143). To add insult to injury, the 4-Corner's high is expanding into Mexico, putting it in just the right spot for its clockwise spin to draw in tropical moisture to SoCal. With hurricanes ginning up now (and shortly after), the atmosphere is becoming more laden with tropical moisture, so higher humidity will get drawn into SoCal. This won't just increase the heat index, but also trap in heat, especially during what should be cooler overnight hours. Thus, we got a triple whammy heatwave: strong high pressure; compressional heating; and tropical humidity.
The tropical moisture will inhibit marine layer development, and the inversion should remain moderate (see illustration on page 134). So even though areas like Palm Springs will hover around 115° in a few days, coastal temps won't cool enough to create more than a Δ7-10° inversion, which is milktoast compared to our May Gray and June Gloom months. The warmer than normal waters off SoCal play a large part in that, so surface to upper-air temps aren't as dramatic right now, and won't be for the rest of the week. But there are two major changes on the horizon for heat relief.
Monday the 31st into Tuesday the 1st will likely see the weather pattern shift with cooler conditions as high pressure weakens and moves east and a sizable low pressure trough (red circle) pushes south toward SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That would increase the onshore flow into SoCal for the return of morning marine layer and cooler daytime highs (and overnight lows). High pressure could return to the 4-Corners for the weekend of the 5th for another warm-up. But that might be short-lived as models show a very robust trough of low pressure pushing into SoCal by Monday the 7th.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Sunday the 23rd) should see a mid AM burn-off, tropical clouds at times this afternoon, and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Monday the 24th should see a thin AM marine layer, early to mid AM burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Tuesday the 25th should see a thin AM marine layer, early burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Wednesday the 26th should see a thin AM marine layer, early burn-off and max beach temps around 80°.
Thursday the 27th should see a thin AM marine layer with an early burn-off, a good amount of tropical clouds, and max beach temps around 80°.
Friday the 28th should see a thin AM marine layer with an early burn-off, a fair amount of tropical clouds, and max beach temps around 80° or even low 80s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 7:00 AM were light to calm most everywhere with a slight offshore effect from LA north. Afternoon onshores should reach 15 mph with stronger gusts mid afternoon north of LA.
Monday the 24th is expected to see AM light and variables, onshores by noon to 10 mph, and onshores mid afternoon to 15 mph, but up to 20 mph north of LA.
Tuesday the 25th is expected to see AM light and variables with a northerly element and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 26th is expected to see AM light and variables with a northerly element and afternoon onshores 7-11 mph.
Until my next report (Tuesday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
