SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 3/19/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
Subscribe to be notified:
Get notified when this report is updated.
At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 19th) we have fading southerly ground swell in SoCal. Light to moderate NW wind swell is due this weekend with background southern hemi. Moderate NW ground swell is expected Tuesday the 24th, followed by NW wind swell Wednesday the 25th. Minor SW ground swell is due Saturday the 28th. Long range models show possible southerly ground swell 4/6. And I'm also taking a closer look at the seasonal long range forecast today. Condition-wise: weather shifts this weekend; winds stay moderate for the most part; tide levels are recuperating from the recent swing; and water temps are up but could drop next week.
|
|
|
Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 185°.
Most south facing breaks were running waist to chest high. West facing breaks were mostly knee to waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 3-4'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 1.7'.
Tide levels are starting to recuperate from the recent swing. Today we have a 0.1' low around 4:30 AM, a 5' high around 10:00 AM, a 0.1' low around 4:30 PM, and a 5.5' high around 10:30 PM.
Water temps were running 62-64° around most of SD and OC. LA was hovering around 62-63°. in VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 66° last night. SB Harbor reported 64°. Note that water temps may cool over the weekend into early next week as a couple NW wind events in the outer waters could cause upwelling.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 19th) southerly ground swell continues to fade from this system you might recall from earlier reports the past couple weeks, originating near New Zealand before turning northeast (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This swell is on the way out and should drop to waist max at south facing breaks Friday the 20th.
Friday the 20th (slow building day) into Saturday the 21st (better building day) and Sunday the 22nd (peak day) remains on track for NW wind swell as tight gradients form along the coast between this surface high and low (model by UQAM):
That wind-gust model shows exceptionally strong winds off CCal and Pt. Conception, stretching into SoCal waters (white box). Those dark red areas represent wind gusts over 40 mph, which should whip up enough wind swell west of SoCal's islands to result in chest high wind swell waves at west facing breaks Sunday the 22nd. Before then, Friday the 20th should run waist high; Saturday the 21st should run waist to chest. Wind swell should be angled from the typical 300°+ with periods 10 seconds.
Friday the 20th into Saturday the 21st, along with NW wind swell, we should also see light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand over a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce sets running waist to chest high at south facing breaks by Saturday the 21st, angled from 205° with periods 15-16 seconds. This should linger Sunday the 22nd. NW wind swell though should be dominant both days this weekend.
Monday the 23rd looks like a smaller day as the NW and SW swells back off, leaving most breaks with knee to waist high waves.
Tuesday the 24th should see steep angled NW ground swell from this new feature that popped up on the short-range models today (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's still on the 2-day models, but models are aligned on this one producing 20' seas, but angled very steep from SoCal at 315°. Anything above SoCal's 300° magic mark tends to skirt past SoCal, staying west of the islands. Some of this though should wrap into the SoCal bight, producing chest high sets at west facing breaks that can work a steep NW angle. Swell once again would be angled from 315° and periods 14 seconds.
Along with this Gulf swell, some intermittent ground swell should build Tuesday the 24th into Wednesday the 25th from this distant, WestPac system (model from NOAA OPC):
That should add some waist to chest high waves into the mix Tuesday the 24th, angled from 300° and periods 16 seconds. Being so far from SoCal, this swell looks sporadic with long wait times in the lineup, and with very few waves per set.
Tuesday the 24th into Wednesday the 25th is also looking at background SW ground swell from this system that peaked a few days ago near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That was about 6,000 nautical miles away on a terrible course for SoCal swell, resulting in sporadic sets running waist high at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds.
All of these swells for Tuesday the 24th — with the Gulf swell dominant — will likely be overshadowed Wednesday the 25th as a second round of NW wind swell is due from another Pacific surface high interacting with an inland low (model by UQAM):
This, so far, looks about chest to head high at west facing breaks Wednesday the 25th, and more steadily head high Thursday the 26th. This would be angled from the wind-swell-usual 300°+ with periods 8-11 seconds. I've still got a few more days to go before calling this one.
Friday the 27th (late) into Saturday the 28th should see minor southern hemi ground swell from this system that's about to peak near French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
It won't be much, about waist high at south facing breaks Saturday the 28th, angled from 200° with periods 15 seconds. West facing breaks, btw, look smaller. This swell should linger at waist high Sunday the 29th.
Monday the 30th through Sunday April 5th could be very small days for surf in SoCal. No major swells are showing up for that timeframe right now, so knee to waist max everywhere is the call (for now).
Monday the 6th is the next potential southern hemisphere ground swell's ETA for SoCal from this system breaking off Antarctic on the 10-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Being a 10-day projection puts this in crystal-ball territory. Working the early numbers, that would be a chest high swell for SoCal's south facing breaks, angled from 180° with periods 17 seconds.
Looking out further on the long range, I wanted to clarify and dispel recent headline hype about this year's El Niño. While some outlets have recently called for another super El Niño this year, that's not very likely. Instead, here's a graph I generated showing the possible strength of this year's El Niño based on the latest official forecast from NOAA (data from NOAA CPC):
Each bucket shows overlapping 3-month intervals: FMA = February March April, MAM = March April May, etc. Each bar shows the probability for El Niño strength with blue (≤5°C) being a La Niña, and red being a weak El Niño (≥5°C). The orange bar, which is the smallest in each 3-month bucket is where we'd get into the strong category for an El Niño, which has very low probability, even as we get into the winter months like OND (October November December). By comparison, the strong El Niño of 1997-98 measured 2.4°C, and the 2015-16 El Niño measured 2.6°C. Right now, the most likely scenario for this year's El Niño is a fraction of that, somewhere between 0.5-1°C. So while we are very likely sliding into El Niño, this time things look moderate by comparison. This, btw, is something I talk about more in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud on how these Niño cycles, at varying strengths, have affected California's waves and weather.
There's always something to monitor in the Pacific as it never stays quiet for long. So I'll continue to keep a close watch and as long as I have your support, then I can continue this report to keep you posted.
|
|
|
Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 20th looks about waist high at most spots.
Saturday the 21st should run waist to chest high at west facing breaks and waist to at times chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 22nd should run chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Monday the 23rd looks about waist max at most breaks.
Tuesday the 24th should see chest high sets at west facing breaks able to work a steep NNW angle; otherwise, other west facing breaks should run waist high. South facing breaks look about knee to waist.
Wednesday the 25th should see NW wind swell build, starting out at chest high early at west facing spots.
Thursday the 26th, so far, looks about head high at west facing breaks from wind swell.
Friday the 27th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks.
Saturday the 28th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Sunday the 29th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks and knee high at west facing spots.
Monday the 30th, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 31st, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Wednesday the 1st, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Thursday the 2nd, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Friday the 3rd, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Saturday the 4th (yawn) same deal.
Sunday the 5th...no change so far.
Tuesday the 6th could see moderate southern hemi ground swell...by the looks of things so far.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 19th) the inland heatwave continues. But as is often the case with hot inland temps, a thermal inversion has developed from the hot inland air rising, then spreading out a mile above sea level over the entire area, including the coast. With upper air temps 5-10° warmer than at the surface along the coast, moist ocean air is getting compressed as it can't escape upwards. Thus, marine clouds at the immediate coast. This is tamping down beach max temps as well.
Friday the 20th sees high pressure over our area break down, transitioning from a weak offshore flow the past few days to a weak onshore flow starting Friday. The weekend into next week should see the onshore flow notch up a tick or two as weak to moderate high pressure meanders over SoCal.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 19th) should see marine layer burn off midmorning with max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Friday the 20th should see morning marine layer, which may hug the immediate coastline (or just right off the coast) into early afternoon. Max beach temps should drop or tick or two to the mid to upper 70s.
Saturday the 21st should see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off followed by high clouds, and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Sunday the 22nd should see AM marine layer, mid to late morning burn-off followed by high clouds, and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Monday the 23rd should see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Tuesday the 24th should see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday the 25th, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Thursday the 26th, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off, and max beach temps in the low to mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere along the SoCal coast with a slight offshore element. Afternoon onshores should reach 10 mph.
Friday the 20th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Saturday the 21st should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Sunday the 22nd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Monday the 23rd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
