SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 11/10/26 6:05 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 10th) sizable NW swell continues in SoCal. Bigger NW swell builds later in the week. Even bigger NW swells are due over the weekend and early next week. And there's been a slight change to the El Niño forecast. Condition-wise: mild Santa Ana shifts shortly with rain in the forecast; tide levels are deep; water temps are well above normal throughout SoCal; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 295-300°.
Most west facing breaks were running head high with overhead pluses at standouts. Direct south facing spots were mostly chest high from diffraction (page 77).
Buoys in the outer waters were running 10'. Nearshore buoys were running 3-4'.
Water temps continue to run above normal in SoCal, even out past the islands (model from NOAA OSPO):
Those yellow to brown areas off SoCal represent water temps 72-75°, which is well above the 62-65° temps we usually have this time of year. Along the coast, most of SD and OC was running 73-75°. Most of LA was hovering around 72°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 70-72° over the past 24 hours. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 71° this morning.
Tidal Advisory: Above normal water temps have increased sea levels 14-16" higher than normal in SoCal. So the 6' predicted high tides (in the tide tables) today are more along the lines of 7.5'.
Hazard Warnings: NW ground swell has increased the risk of rip currents, especially at west facing beaches and during outgoing tides. Bigger surf is on the way, which will cause further hazards in a few days. Coupled with higher than normal sea levels, the incoming swells will further increase the risk of coastal flooding and beach erosion. The NWS has issued advisories for SB, VC, and LA here and OC and SD here.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 10th) NW ground swell continues in SoCal from this system that peaked about 1000 nautical miles from SoCal a few days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Pluses are still likely today from constructive interference (page 84) with the previous swell. This NW swell should back down to chest to head high Wednesday the 11th, and then chest high Thursday the 12th. However, the next NW swell should build Thursday night.
Friday the 13th should see the next NW swell from this system taking a fairly low latitude course to the west coast (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should start filling in Thursday night, peaking Friday the 13th. Size this morning is measuring 30' in that fetch, which works out to surf running 2-3' overhead Friday, angled from 295° and periods 16-17 seconds. Note that weather and wind conditions come into question starting Friday the 13th, more so over the weekend (see Weather and Wind sections below).
Saturday the 14th should see that swell continue in the morning. But by 4:00 PM (or 6:00 PM, depending on the model) the next swell would start filling in, peaking in the morning Sunday the 15th from this exceptionally strong fetch diving south toward SoCal (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That's still out on the 2-day models but models are aligned on this being a very robust system. Models are only slightly split on seas being either 40' (GFS model) or 48' (ECMWF). The difference is either 14' faces at the low end or 17' faces at the high end. Swell would be angled from 295° with periods either 18 or 20 seconds (depending on the model). Either way, hazards will abound with high consistency, strong rip currents, and rogue waves. Although the predicted high tides this weekend will be in the 5' range, the higher than normal sea levels will result in actual tide levels in the 6.5' range, increasing the chance for coastal flooding and beach erosion. Storm surge may increase those tide levels further.
Monday the 16th should see this swell back down in the morning to around 2-4' overhead. But then the next NW swell will likely build in the evening, peaking Tuesday the 17th from this system on the 5-day (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That holds potential for surf running 3' overhead to DOH (depending on the model) Tuesday the 17th. Swell would be angled from 300° and periods 17 seconds. This swell would likely dip to a couple feet overhead Wednesday the 18th; head high max Thursday the 19th; and then chest high Friday the 20th.
The weekend of the 21st-22nd will likely see smaller surf in SoCal, chest-high-ish at west facing breaks. The 8- to 10-day models hint at some form of NW swell coming from the Aleutians that could land in SoCal around the 23rd or 25th, but models are too far apart to start working on those numbers right now.
And last but certainly not least, although NOAA will release their monthly El Niño forecast Thursday (the 12th), their latest weekly assessment posted yesterday downgraded the current El Niño state slightly to 2.3°C, which was 2.5°C last week (measuring the 3.4 zone). This jives with recent model trends that El Niño may be peaking earlier than expected (model from NOAA CPC)
NOAA's PDF corrected models have been aligned for a few weeks, showing El Niño could weaken before our bigger-surf and heavier-rain months of January and February. This raises the probability for hefty WNW swells as we get into December versus waiting until January. The heaviest rain could fall earlier than normal as well. We'll know more once NOAA releases their report on Thursday; however, given their latest weekly assessment and the state of the Pacific right now, an early weakening of El Niño is becoming probable.
For the near term though, the marine heat wave (MHW) off SoCal has expanded and is reaching toward Canada (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
As mentioned earlier, water temps off SoCal are running about 10°F above normal (model from NOAA OSPO):
The marine heat wave could last longer than this season's El Niño as the marine heat wave started in 2025, warmed this past summer from inland heatwaves, and was able to sustain warmth from a lack of NW wind that would normally cause cold-water upwelling off the coast. Kelvin Waves from this year's El Niño added to this warmth; however, those were only a portion of the abnormal warmth off SoCal (more on that here). So with the marine heat wave so well established, it may stick around for a year or more after El Niño wanes. This could cause a long-term issue as the marine heat wave has raised sea levels to 1.5' above normal. This is further compounded by an 18.6-year nodal lunar cycle that is creating higher tides this year, including king tides reaching 7.5' around the Christmas holiday. Add another 1.5' on top of that from sea-level rise and we have a 9' high tide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
Overall, the Pacific is in an exceptionally hyperactive state right now, but change is likely on the horizon over the next couple months. There's a lot to monitor over the coming days, weeks, and months, but as long as I have your support then I can continue to watch the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is crucial to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 11th looks about head high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 12th should run chest to head high at west facing breaks. NW swell should fill in during the evening.
Friday the 13th should run 2-3' overhead at west facing spots.
Saturday the 14th is expected to run a couple feet overhead at west facing breaks in the morning, with much bigger swell will likely build by either 4:00 PM or 6:00 PM (model depending).
Sunday the 15th, so far, is expected to run at least DOH at west facing breaks. Some models point to TOH (around 17' face heights).
Monday the 16th, so far, looks about DOH max at west facing breaks, but with swell building in the evening.
Tuesday the 17th, so far, looks about DOH at west facing breaks.
Wednesday the 18th, so far, looks about 2-4' overhead at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 19th, so far, looks about head high+ at west facing breaks.
Friday the 20th, so far, looks about chest high with occasional pluses at west facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 10th) high pressure will stick around through Wednesday the 11th but then weaken Thursday the 12th as a trough of low pressure pushes south toward SoCal. This will kick off a period of rain for SoCal with many rain days, but amounts light with breaks in between. The first round of rain would be from a cut-off low (green arrow), which would precede moderate rain (red arrow) from the first storm housed in the trough of low pressure pushing south to SoCal (model by UQAM):
This will likely bring very light rain to SoCal Friday the 13th, about 0.1" max along the coast (GFS shows even lighter amounts). Saturday the 14th would then see rain from the northern trough, which looks like about 0.1" in most of SoCal. Also, rain may only last in the morning Saturday with clearing in the afternoon. Sunday the 15th will likely be dry before a heavier rainstorm hits SoCal Monday the 16th. The Monday storm could bring 0.25" or more rain to most of SoCal. A heavier rainstorm is showing up for the 18th-19th as well. As for totals, from Friday the 13th through Thursday the 19th, the ECMWF says most of SoCal would get 1.5" of rain; the GFS calls for 0.5"; and the CMC falls in between at 1".
Friday the 20th would likely see clearing. But a very strong northerly wind event could take place from an inside slider event (page 121) over the weekend of the 21st. The long range models are exceptionally bullish showing the insider low being strong while hugging the coast (model by NOAA MAG):
This would be more of a northerly wind event, not so much an offshore Santa Ana. If winds sustain for a few days then it could cause enough upwelling to cool the marine heat wave off SoCal — although only slightly, not enough to stop it. Winds though become a concern with gales likely. In any case, that's on the long range and needs more monitoring.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 10th) looks clear with max beach temps in the low 80s.
Wednesday the 11th looks clear, maybe thin AM marine layer near dawn, with max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Thursday the 12th should see a thin marine layer, quick burn-off, and max beach temps in the mid 70s. There is a chance for light rain in the evening.
Friday the 13th should see thin AM marine layer, high clouds at times, and light precip. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s. Rain could fall overnight
Saturday the 14th could see rain, although that may happen overnight Friday into Saturday with clearing later in the morning or early afternoon. Otherwise, skies look partly- to mostly-cloudy. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Sunday the 15th should be dry. Some AM marine layer is possible and skies should cloud up later in the day. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s.
Monday the 16th could see rain. I'll have more on this in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight offshore element. Onshores are expected this afternoon to 10 mph.
Wednesday the 11th should see AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Thursday the 12th is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 8-12 mph.
Friday the 13th is expected to see AM light and variables turning onshore by noon to 10 mph, then increase by midafternoon 15-20 mph onshore, stronger in the evening.
Saturday the 14th, so far, is looking at AM onshores 5-10 mph, 15 mph onshore by noon, and 20-25 mph onshore by midafternoon.
Sunday the 15th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
