SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 3/17/26 6:30 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 17th) we're on the tail end of the most recent southern hemisphere ground swell, which will fade over the next few days. Light NW wind swell builds this weekend with background southern hemi. A couple NW wind swells and ground swells build Tuesday the 24th, peaking a couple days later. We then might hit a lull for a little while. Condition-wise: inland heat wave but beach temps reduced; winds stay light to moderate; the tide is swinging wide; water temps are fair but could drop by next week; and water contact advisories are in effect for some areas.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 17 seconds from 180°.
Most south facing breaks were running chest high with occasional head high pluses at standouts. West facing breaks were mostly waist to chest, bigger at SW exposed spots.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.2'.
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a New Moon Wednesday the 18th. Today we have a 5.5' high around 9:00 AM, a -0.5' low around 3:30 PM, and a 5' high around 9:30 PM.
Water temps were running 63° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 60° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 60° this morning. Note that water temps may cool by early next week, more so around the middle of next week from a couple wind events off the coast that could cause upwelling.
Water Contact Advisory: A number of LA Beaches are still posted for high bacteria levels, likely due to a combination of urban runoff through storm drains combined with recently warmer temps. You can check the latest water quality for all five coastal counties at these links: SD here, OC here, LA here, VC here, and SB here.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 17th) we're now on the tail end of the southern hemisphere swell that originated from this system you might recall that grew near New Zealand and eventually took an ideal turn to the northeast about nine days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This should drop to chest high at south facing breaks Wednesday the 18th, and then waist to chest Thursday the 19th.
Friday the 20th (building day) into Saturday the 21st and Sunday the 22nd we're looking at NW wind swell from a tight pressure gradient that should set up along the west coast by the end of the week (model by UQAM):
Strong surface high pressure will butt-up against strong inland low pressure (red arrows), creating a very tight gradient along the coast to whip up strong winds off NorCal. Some of those winds will stretch into SoCal (white box), which should result in initially waist high waves at west facing breaks Friday the 20th, waist to chest Saturday the 21st, and chest high Sunday the 22nd. Wind swell would be angled from the typical 300°+ with periods 10 seconds.
Friday the 20th into Saturday the 21st, along with NW wind swell, we should see light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell from this system that peaked near New Zealand almost a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That should produce sets running waist to chest high at south facing breaks by Saturday the 21st, angled from 205° with periods 15-16 seconds. This should linger Sunday the 22nd. NW wind swell though should be dominant both days this weekend.
Monday the 23rd looks like a smaller day as both the NW and SW swells back off, leaving most breaks with knee to waist high waves.
Tuesday the 24th should see a light NW-SW combo swell. The NW should be from this distant, WestPac system (model from NOAA OPC):
That's the farthest east that system will travel so we'll get just intermittent waves from time to time running initially waist at west facing breaks Tuesday the 24th and then chest high Wednesday the 25th, angled from 300° with periods 16 seconds. There will be long wait times with very few waves per set and long lulls between sets. As for the SW portion of the combo, that should be from this system that peaked a couple days ago near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That was about 6,000 nautical miles away on a terrible course for SoCal swell, resulting in sporadic sets running waist high at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds. So all told, most breaks are looking at waist ground swell high waves Tuesday the 24th, then chest high at west facing breaks Wednesday the 25th, smaller at south facing spots. But Wednesday the 25th could see other NW swells start to build.
Wednesday the 25th (building in the afternoon?) into Thursday the 26th is looking at a mix of NW wind- and ground-swell as a robust storm (top left) slams the PNW and winds ensue off SoCal (model by UQAM):
I popped a white box over SoCal so it doesn't get lost on that wind-gust model. Those gusts to 40 mph off the coast are the main reason I noted for the upwelling event affecting water temps next week. As for wind swell, this could easily kick up head high wind swell waves at west facing breaks by Thursday the 26th. But that PNW storm should also kick up this ground swell fetch off the coast (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Size and timing works out the same as the wind swell: building Wednesday the 25th, peaking Thursday the 26th at head high for west facing breaks. The wind swell would be angled from 300°+ at 10-11 seconds. The ground swell would be angled from 300° with periods 15 seconds. It's still early in the game so this needs more monitoring.
Saturday the 28th is the next potential swell on my charts this morning, which wouldn't be much as this WestPac storm takes a trek north to the Bering Sea (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That would produce just waist high waves at west facing breaks, angled from 305° with periods 17 seconds.
Looking out further on the long range is Dullsville, which is to be expected for this time of year. But sitting between SoCal's NW and SW swell seasons, chances for swell from either hemisphere remains a possibility for a while. So I'll continue to keep an eye on the Pacific, and as long as I have your support, then I can continue this report and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 18th looks about chest high at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks.
Thursday the 19th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and knee to waist at west facing breaks.
Friday the 20th looks about waist high at most spots.
Saturday the 21st should run waist to chest high at west facing breaks and waist to at times chest high at south facing spots.
Sunday the 22nd should run chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Monday the 23rd looks about waist max at most breaks.
Tuesday the 24th, so far, looks about waist max at most breaks.
Wednesday the 25th, so far, is expected to start out with waist to chest high waves at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing breaks. However, NW wind swell and ground swell should build in the afternoon.
Thursday the 26th, so far, looks about head high at west facing breaks. South facing spots would rely on wrap.
Friday the 27th, so far, looks about chest high at west facing breaks. South facing spots would rely on wrap.
Saturday the 28th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Sunday the 29th, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Monday the 30th, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 31st, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Wednesday the 1st, so far, looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 17th) this week's SoCal heatwave remains on track as models have stayed the course on this decently strong dome of high pressure over our area (model by UQAM):
That shows the peak of the heatwave Thursday when surface high pressure will be near 1024mb around SoCal, and the upper levels (shaded areas) show a 594dm high (the deepest red over SoCal). The strongest heatwaves we tend to see in SoCal have an upper level high around 600dm, so while inland areas will be hot, we've seen worse; although, not in the middle of March. At the coast things look much cooler as a weak thermal inversion should form each morning with air temps a mile up being about 5° warmer than at the surface. This traps marine moisture to tamp down temps; in fact, beach max temps have been reduced to the upper 70s, not the 80s (at the coastline). This also means beaches could see some morning marine layer, but burn-offs should be quick for the next few days. However, Thursday, at the peak of the heatwave, the inversion would be strongest, so marine layer is more likely.
By the end of the week the high should weaken and move east. Friday should be the transition day, leading to a cooler weekend. A couple low pressure troughs next week should bring the return of more seasonal weather. Also, no rain is showing up anywhere on the models, even for the extended long range.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 17th) should see a quick burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Wednesday the 18th should see little to no AM marine layer and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Thursday the 19th could see some marine layer return as a thermal inversion may be strong that morning. Burn-off should be quick. Max beach temps should reach the upper 70s.
Friday the 20th should see a thin morning marine layer, quick burn-off, and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Saturday the 21st should see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off followed by high clouds, and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Sunday the 22nd, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off followed by high clouds, and max beach temps around 70°.
Monday the 23rd, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, late morning burn-off, and max beach temps in the upper 60s to around 70° max.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere along the SoCal coast, although some spots in VC were seeing NNE winds around 10 mph. Afternoon onshores should run 10 mph.
Wednesday the 18th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores around 10 mph.
Thursday the 19th should see light AM offshores around 5 mph and afternoon onshores 5-10 mph.
Friday the 20th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Saturday the 21st, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 10 mph.
Sunday the 22nd, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores around 15 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
