SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 4/23/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 23rd) we have moderately sized southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal with background NW wind swell. NW swell from Sinlaku remains on track for Sunday the 26th into Monday the 27th. Minor southern hemi follows. Moderate NW ground swell is being watched for Thursday the 30th. NW wind swell is being watched for 5/3-5/4. Light southern hemis are due around that time. But a better sized SW ground swell is being watched for 5/8-5/9. I also have an update today on recent developments affecting SoCal's surf in the coming months. Condition-wise: rain chances are in the forecast; winds strong at times; tide levels are moderate; and water temps are running above normal in many spots.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 17 seconds from 180°, 11 seconds from 310°, and 7 seconds from 320°.
Most south facing spots were running chest high. Direct west facing spots were mostly waist to chest high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 7-9'. Nearshore buoys were running 2.5' (south facing) to 3.5' (west facing, mostly from wind swell).
Tide levels are fair. We did have a 5' high around 2:00 AM that is slowly receding to a -0.5' low by 10:30 AM. We'll then see a 3.5' high around 5:30 PM and a 2.5' low around 10:00 PM.
Water temps were running 63-65° in most of SD. OC was more varied with Huntington Beach 61°, Newport 65°, and San Clemente Pier 67°. LA was mostly 62-65°. For VC and SB, recent USCG readings were once again unavailable but Stearns Wharf reported 61° this morning. Water temps are slightly above normal from a marine heat wave, which I'll talk about later in the report.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 23rd) we're seeing the peak of the southerly ground swell sent our way from this system that broke off Antarctica about two weeks ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
We also have wind swell in SoCal as outer water winds have increased quite a bit over the past 24 hours, responding to the recent storm's passage to the east. All of this should fade Friday the 24th with waist to chest high waves at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing breaks. Saturday the 25th looks about waist max everywhere.
Sunday the 26th (building day) into Monday the 27th should see spotty NW ground swell from what was Super Typhoon Sinlaku, shown here as that storm turned east to send swell our way about five days ago (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
This should produce intermittent chest+ waves at SoCal's west facing breaks by Monday the 27th (building Sunday the 26th). That storm was 4,400 nautical miles from SoCal so swell will be inconsistent with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell should be angled from 295° with periods 17 seconds initially. Some Aleutian swell should be in the mix around the same time, although that should present as waist high waves in the mix, angled from 310° and periods 14 seconds.
Tuesday the 28th should see this mix of swell back down to about waist high at west facing breaks with occasional, rare, chest high pluses at standout west facing spots. Minor Antarctic swell is also due, helping south facing breaks with waist high waves.
Wednesday the 29th (building day) into Thursday the 30th (peak) will likely see spotty NW ground swell from this high-latitude system crashing into the Aleutians (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Although housing 35' seas, that's a terrible course for SoCal swell. Running the numbers off the 3-day models works out to inconsistent, spotty, chest high waves at west facing breaks by Thursday the 30th, angled from 310° and periods 18 seconds. Distant southern hemi swell from the Tasman Sea is also due Thursday the 30th, which should result in inconsistent waist high waves at south facing breaks, angled from 230° and periods 15 seconds. The NW swell should linger at chest high Friday the 1st, although once again inconsistent. This swell should then back off Saturday the 2nd.
Sunday the 3rd and Monday the 4th could see sizable NW wind swell as models are now aligning on this windy, inland trough of low pressure kicking off a northerly, inside-slider wind event (model by NOAA MAG):
That dry, overland low would create a tight pressure gradient along the coast as it butts up against high pressure in the Pacific. If the 9-day models have it right, then we could see enough northerly wind to gin-up chest to head high wind swell at SoCal's west facing breaks 5/3 and 5/4, angled from the wind-swell-usual 300°+ with periods 10 seconds. Monday the 4th may also see some Aleutian ground swell in the mix, but at waist high for west facing breaks it'd be overshadowed by the wind swell.
Sunday the 3rd into Monday the 4th should also see light southern hemisphere ground swell in the mix from this storm peaking southeast of New Zealand this morning (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 25' seas from that position and course, SoCal's south facing breaks would see waist to at times chest high waves by Monday the 4th, angled from 205° and periods 15 seconds. If the wind swell does develop as the 9-day models show, then NW wrap may be equal to, or greater than this southern hemi. I'll need more time to see how that develops.
Either way, more light southern hemi is likely for 5/6 and 5/7 from additional storm activity in that region, running about waist high for south facing breaks. But something bigger could be waiting in the wings.
Friday the 8th into Saturday the 9th could see decent sized, long-period, SW ground swell from this strong storm southeast of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That juicy purple center represents 40-45' seas, but the easterly course means we'd get a glancing blow of energy. Working the numbers off that 7-day model, south facing breaks could easily see chest+ sets (maybe head high pluses), angled from 210° with periods 19 seconds. This needs more monitoring but I'll be able to narrow in on this in my next report (Sunday).
Next, before getting to the Weather and Winds below, I wanted to address the recent warm water temps off SoCal; recent headlines talking about this marine heat wave (MHW) off SoCal; and involvement with the "Super El Niño" that much of the media has gravitated to in recent weeks.
In short, yes; we have both an MHW and El Niño underway, which we can see in this sea surface temperature anomaly model (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
We can see how El Niño is taking shape now, and we can see warmer than normal water temps off Baja into SoCal (and the Sea of Cortez). The MHV, also called a "Blob" by NOAA, is not the same "Blob" we saw during the extended La Niña about ten years ago. These North Pacific Warm Anomalies were not just in different parts of the Pacific, but also not caused by El Niño or La Niña directly. The 2014 Blob was from an extended La Niña that caused clear skies in the Gulf of Alaska, providing more sunlight to that region, warming waters there (at least that's the best explanation so far). The MHW we're seeing now has a different origin story, likely caused from a lack of recent upwelling along the west coast. Normally, strong northwest winds will blow frequently along the SoCal coast, especially this time of year, which causes water temps to cool as those winds induce upwelling near the coastline. So while not directly linked to this year's developing El Niño, this MHW could affect hurricane swells this summer, coupled to effects from the Niño.
Which brings us to the bigger issue: Is there going to be a "Super El Niño" this year as much of the media is reporting? It is true that we are entering El Niño, but as you may recall from my last few reports, its strength is undetermined. We can see how up in the air El Niño is on this graph showing an abundance of model predictions (image from IRI):
A "Super" El Niño (a name given by the media, not scientists) would be something over 2°C. But we can see that most models keep it at or below 1.5°C in the 3-month forecasts (MAM = March April May, AMJ = April May June, etc.). The thick green line is the statistical average using past events as a baseline, which puts the Niño strength below 1°C. The dynamic average, which takes into account more recent changes, tops out at 1.5°C. So if we look at what this means for probability of a strong or weak El Niño, it would look like this (image from NOAA CPC):
This coming winter (NDJ = November December January) a "Very Strong" El Niño has a 30% chance, and a weak El Niño is about a 40% chance. Could this winter see a "Very Strong" El Niño? Possibly, but that's actually a low to medium chance. Even then, it wouldn't mean we'd see catastrophic rain or epic swells, which is something I explain further in my book Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud. But there are some things to consider when it comes to SoCal's waves and weather, and the recent MHW.
The more immediate effect we could see from El Niño and SoCal's MHW would occur shortly as we approach hurricane season. As equatorial waters warm, hurricanes would see more warm-water fuel as they spin off Central America. These cyclones normally hit cold water to their north, sending them westward. However, given the state of the MHW, hurricanes could encounter better northward guidance to direct their swells at SoCal. But bear in mind that these models show "anomalous" water temps. The actual water temps look like this (model from NOAA Coral Reef Watch):
Water temps need to be about 26.5°C to support a hurricane, and those green areas off SoCal are about 16-18°C. So although we do have a MHW and El Niño underway, a more active hurricane season isn't a sure bet. Looking ahead though, with any strength of El Niño, we should see an active winter of waves and weather for 2026-27.
There's a lot to monitor across the Pacific right now — seasonally and the short term as well. But as long as I have your support then I can continue watching the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is essential right now to keep this report alive (more on that here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 24th looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Saturday the 25th looks about waist high at most spots.
Sunday the 26th is expected to run waist high at most breaks with occasional chest high pluses at standout west facing breaks.
Monday the 27th looks about chest+ at west facing breaks but with highly inconsistent sets with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing spots look about waist high.
Tuesday the 28th looks about waist high at most breaks but with occasional chest high pluses at west facing spots.
Wednesday the 29th looks about waist max everywhere, but NW ground swell should build late in the day.
Thursday the 30th, so far, is expected to run chest high at west facing breaks but with few waves per set and long lulls between sets. South facing breaks look about waist high.
Friday the 1st, so far, looks similar.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 23rd) low pressure is moving east as high pressure temporarily fills into SoCal. An onshore flow remains in place today and Friday ahead of this positively tilted trough that will affect SoCal weather this weekend (model by NOAA MAG):
Most models show very light rain reaching SoCal either sometime in the afternoon Saturday the 25th or later in the evening, ending by the morning Sunday the 26th. Most models show trace to 0.1" max, but the ECMWF is bullish enough to call for 0.1-0.25" of rain along the coast. With some models showing trace to nada, I'd feel comfortable calling for 0.1" max accumulation with rain late Saturday the 25th ending early morning Sunday the 26th. This will also cool air temps this weekend.
Another shot of rain is showing up for Wednesday the 29th into Thursday the 30th from this cut-off low (model by NOAA MAG):
Lacking more predictable jetstream guidance, models are understandably undecided, showing a variety of outcomes from no rain to 0.25" of rain. I'll need more time to see how models deal with this in the coming days.
The other weather feature to note is a potential inside-slider wind event Sunday the 3rd into Monday the 4th from this inland low noted above for wind swell around this time (model by NOAA MAG):
It's a long range event, so it's too early to call right now. I did pop a yellow pin in my charts this morning and I'll see how it goes.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 23rd) should see partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and beach max temps in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday the 24th should see AM marine layer with midmorning burn-off, followed by partly cloudy skies and beach max temps in the mid 60s.
Saturday the 25th looks cloudy. Rain will likely approach SoCal in the afternoon with the highest likelihood of rain by or during the evening. Amounts look light. Beach max temps should cool to the low 60s.
Sunday the 26th is looking at AM marine layer. Rain should end in the morning, yielding to partly cloudy skies and max beach temps in the low 60s.
Monday the 27th, so far, is expected to see AM marine layer, mid to late AM burn-off, then partly cloudy skies and max beach temps in the low to mid 60s.
Tuesday the 28th, so far, looks similar.
Wednesday the 29th may see rain approach the region...more on that in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores are expected to reach 15 mph.
Friday the 24th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph, stronger at times mid afternoon with gusts to 20 mph.
Saturday the 25th is expected to see early AM onshores 4-8 mph, reaching 15 mph by noon, and then 15-20 mph in the afternoon.
Sunday the 26th is expected to see early AM onshores 4-8 mph, reaching 15 mph by noon, and then 20+ mph in the afternoon.
Monday the 27th, so far, is expected to see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 15+ mph.
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
