SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 9/1/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 1st) we have tropical swell from Karina in SoCal. A decent sized southern hemi swell is due Friday the 4th into Saturday the 5th. However, we may see significantly sized swell from Marie hit SoCal this weekend into early next week. On the longer range, moderate SW ground swell is due Friday the 11th. Condition-wise: cooler weather for a while; rain becoming likely from Marie; winds a bit stronger than normal over the next few days; high tide continues to run deep; and water temps remain abnormally warm.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 11-14 seconds from 165-180°.
Most south facing spots were running chest high, although due to the SE angle there was shadowing (page 81) in some spots, including a good portion of the Malibu region where much less energy was coming through. West facing breaks were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 4-6'. Nearshore buoys were averaging 2.5'.
Tide levels are moderate but an early afternoon high will run deep for the next few days. Today we have a 1.5' low around 6:00 AM, a 5.5' high around 12:30 PM, and a 1' low around 7:30 PM.
Water temps were running 73-76° around most of SD and OC, although Mission Beach has been reporting lower at 70-72° and San Clemente Pier has been higher at 78° at times. LA was mostly 72-74°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 73° last night. SB Harbor reported 72° last night.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 1st) we're seeing steep angled swell from Karina, mostly from when she was on the edge of our swell window a couple days ago (image from NOAA GOES):
The yellow lines indicate the SoCal swell window for hurricanes. When Karina was on the edge of our swell window Sunday she had 20-25' seas, which is the swell we're seeing today. Over the past 24 hours Karina has been generating 30' seas, but outside of our ideal swell window with a now higher angular spread (page 52) for less swell in SoCal. Still, this should produce up to chest high waves at south facing breaks Wednesday the 2nd and Thursday the 3rd, angled from about 190° Wednesday and 210° Thursday.
Friday the 4th (building day) into Saturday the 5th should see decently sized swell from this system that was near New Zealand about a week ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That system housed seas in the 25-30' range, which works out to chest+ sets at most south facing breaks, head high at standouts by Saturday the 5th, angled from 205° with periods 16-17 seconds. However, this may get overshadowed by significantly sized hurricane swell.
Late Friday the 4th, building Saturday the 5th, could see strong swell from Marie, which could peak in SoCal Sunday the 6th into Monday the 7th. However, models are split on two primary scenarios, which will have drastically different results in waves and weather. Rain is in the forecast from Marie and I'll get to that in the Weather section below. Swell-wise, the most bullish scenario is the GFS model shown here on the 5-day, but quite significantly sized even on the 2-day (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That top-end scenario puts 30'+ seas about 450 nautical miles from SoCal with another low on its tail end that could add energy from a Fujiwhara. That would work out to size and angle varying each day, with swell building in the afternoon Friday the 4th, reaching 3-4' overhead Saturday the 5th at breaks that can work a steep, 160° angle (head high to 2' overhead at other south facing spots) with periods 16 seconds. But then, Sunday the 6th into Monday the 7th could see sets running DOH to upwards of TOH, with top face-height calculations (page 57) running 15', angled from 170-180° and periods 17 seconds. But that's the top-end forecast, which falls in about the 25-30% chance category right now.
The model majority (50-60% chance) is more conservative, like this GEFS ensemble, which is a cousin (so to speak) of the GFS, thus putting the GFS's bullish projection into question (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
In this scenario, swell would build Saturday the 5th and peak Sunday the 6th with head high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 165-170° and periods 14 seconds. Other models are similar to this lesser scenario like the ECMWF and CMC. Yet other ensembles like the NAEFS fall somewhere in between (about 10-25% chance). Essentially, we're just 48 hours away from when Marie would become a notable hurricane. Her strength then would be a good indicator of which model to favor for the forecast. I'm sure I'll be able to nail this down with a confident call in my Thursday report; and if something were to change between my scheduled Thursday and Sunday report then I'll post an update and send the email notice (see top of page if you want to sign up for that).
In any case, swell from Marie will likely peak and/or continue Monday the 7th, slowly back off Tuesday the 8th, and then drop more noticeably Wednesday the 9th, and next to nil Thursday the 10th.
Friday the 11th is the next swell on my charts this morning from this system near New Zealand that's coming to its peak today (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That works out to chest high sets at south facing breaks, angled from 215° and periods 16 seconds. This swell should continue Saturday the 12th and back off to waist high or so Sunday the 13th.
For now though, all eyes are on Marie as this storm needs much more monitoring over the next few days. But as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is vital to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 2nd should run waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Thursday the 3rd should run waist to chest at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Friday the 4th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 5th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks; however, stronger swell from Marie could come ashore but this needs more monitoring.
Sunday the 6th, so far, should run at least head high at south facing breaks but stronger swell from Marie could come ashore, which needs more monitoring.
Monday the 7th...same deal with question marks on Marie.
Tuesday the 8th will likely see swell from Marie back off, but it's too early to call right now.
Wednesday the 9th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks. Yep, based on Marie as well.
Thursday the 10th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks.
Friday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 12th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 1st) an onshore flow is well underway as a trough of low pressure is digging through SoCal and high pressure is weak, positioned well to our east. A spotty deck of marine clouds were scattered along the coast today and there will be morning marine layer some days in the forecast. The inversion is weak, but there'll be a temporary lapse in tropical moisture over the next few days to have less of an inhibiting effect on the marine layer.
But the bigger issue in the forecast is what to expect from Marie as the two swell scenarios above correlate to two possibilities for rain. At the top-end we have the GFS showing copious rain hitting SoCal (model by UQAM):
I popped a red box over SoCal so it doesn't get lost in all the precip. In this upper-end scenario, OC and SD would see 1-2" of rain and LA, VC, and SB would see upwards of 3" of rain. Rain would progress from south to north, starting in SD late afternoon Saturday the 5th, with heavier rain hitting OC and LA in the morning Sunday the 6th, with then exceptionally heavy rain hitting VC and SB later in the day Sunday the 6th. Another band of rain would then hit LA, VC, and SB overnight Sunday the 6th into the morning of Monday the 7th, with rain not completely exiting the region until Monday night. BTW: The mountains would see 4-5" of rain in this scenario. But that's the top-end scenario, running at a 25% chance right now.
At the other end of the spectrum, the utmost lowest end scenario is the CMC model, which shows trace to 0.1" across most of SoCal. The ECMWF shows 0.25" max in SoCal. Being so far disparate from the GFS raises question marks on the GFS's flooding-rain scenario, and there is one other thing that could hinder those rainfall totals too: offshore winds (model by UQAM):
With Marie getting slow close to SoCal, her counterclockwise spin could create an easterly offshore flow, shown by the wind barbs (page 125). Those 21-25kt winds from the ENE could dessicate incoming moisture, resulting in much less rain in SoCal. This makes the GFS's flooding-rain forecast questionable, but it shouldn't be discounted as it is still within the realm of possibility, and this has happened before, like with Hilary in August 2023, which brought many inches of rain to SoCal along with hurricane-force winds to some areas.
In any case, I'm sure models will align much better over the next couple days to allow for a more confident forecast for the coming weekend.
After the holiday weekend, no major weather events are expected for a while as mild high pressure meanders near SoCal by Tuesday the 8th.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 1st) should see a midmorning burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Wednesday the 2nd should see thin marine layer, early burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Thursday the 3rd should see thicker marine layer, late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Friday the 4th should see AM marine layer, late AM burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Saturday the 5th could see rain. I'll narrow in on this and the entire holiday weekend in my next report.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should pick up by noon to 10 mph, increasing to 15 mph by mid afternoon. LA north should see stronger winds mid to late afternoon to 20 mph.
Wednesday the 2nd should see AM light and variables. Onshores should increase by noon to 10 mph, 15 mph by early to mid afternoon, and up to 20 mph mid to late afternoon from LA north.
Thursday the 3rd should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Friday the 4th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
