SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 6/9/26 6:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 9th) we have strong SW ground swell in SoCal. After this backs off in a couple days, moderate southern hemi swell builds over the weekend. Decent sized SW ground swell is due by the middle of next week. Moderate SW ground swell is being watched for the weekend of the 20th-21st. Lighter southern hemis should follow. Condition-wise: thin marine layer thickens later in the week; winds stay moderate for the most part; a tidal swing gets underway shortly; water temps are fair; and advisories are in effect.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 20 seconds from 190°.
Most south facing spots were running head high to a couple feet overhead. Breaks south of LA that benefit from the San Diego Trough's refraction (see page 111 in Wave by Wave) are looking at bigger sets with some set waves approaching DOH at times.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 8-11'; however, much of that is outer water wind swell. Nearshore buoys were running 3.1-4.3' with southern hemi energy measuring 3' on the spectrum.
Tide levels are moderate now but swing wide shortly as we approach a New Moon Sunday the 14th. Typical for this time of year, the peak swings will be mostly outside of daylight hours. But with evening highs reaching 7' and early AM lows nearing -2', some of this will affect dawn patrols and late day sessions.
Water temps were running 66-68° in most of SD. OC was more varied with Huntington Beach 61°, Newport 65°, and San Clemente Pier 69°. LA was mostly 65-68°, although the usually-cooler Zuma reported 63°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 61° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 59° this morning.
Hazardous Condition Warnings: Strong southern hemisphere ground swell today and over the next few days will increase the risk of rip currents, especially at south facing breaks. The NWS has issued warnings as well for SB, VC, and LA here, and OC and SD here. Caution is advised.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 9th) the strong, southern hemisphere ground swell has made an on-time arrival into SoCal, sent our way courtesy of this system you might recall the peaked about a week ago after breaking off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Seas were impressive at 45', so its northeasterly course resulted in a good deal of energy being directed at SoCal. The angle on this is just within the range where swell energy can refract through the San Diego Trough (page 111), which is why some breaks in OC and SD are seeing the heaviest impact, even though they don't face directly south. In any case, this swell should continue at 2-3' overhead at many south facing breaks Wednesday the 10th, then run about head high with occasional pluses Thursday the 11th. This swell should back down further to chest+ Friday the 12th.
Note there is some NW wind swell in the mix today, which will pick up slightly Wednesday the 10th, caused by outer water winds that will also disrupt marine layer development in parts of SoCal (see Weather section below). At chest high for west facing breaks the wind swell is hardly worth noting since diffraction of the southern hemi into west facing breaks will be bigger over the next couple days. Those winds and thus wind swell will be short-lived.
Saturday the 13th (building quickly) into Sunday the 14th (peak) should see moderate SW ground swell from this system that recently broke off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
With 30' seas on that trajectory, size works out to chest+ by Sunday the 14th with swell angled from 190° and periods 16-17 seconds. This swell should continue Monday the 15th at chest high at south facing spots.
Tuesday the 16th (building day) into Wednesday the 17th (peak) should see decent sized SW ground swell from this New Zealand system (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
At first, that storm's easterly course will send just a fraction of its long-period ground swell to SoCal, with a high degree of loss from its initial angular spread (page 52). That portion will arrive Tuesday the 16th with inconsistent swell. But the northerly course off the east coast of New Zealand after the storm weakens, will result in swell building later in the day Tuesday the 16th, peaking Wednesday the 17th. With 50' seas initially and then 40' seas on its northerly course, we should see inconsistent sets early in the morning Tuesday the 16th running head high at times at south facing breaks; however, there should be few waves per set and long lulls between sets. Swell should then become a bit more consistent in the afternoon, with somewhat consistent sets Wednesday the 17th running head high to a foot overhead (but still with some long wait times between sets). Swell should be angled from 210-215° with periods 19-21 seconds initially. However, there's something important to be aware of on how this swell will behave.
Similar to my last report, all models are in agreement except for the nearshore GFS-WAVE "Data" files (also known as spectral bulletin files). That nearshore data is used to create the automated surf charts here on WaveCast and some other forecasting sites. But that data doesn't always take into account the biggest portion of the swell, as only a single band is used to create the charts, thus accounting for the predominant portion of the swell — ignoring low consistency energy, even though it might be bigger. Thus, the automated charts (like this one) show shorter periods and smaller size than what I'm forecasting.
TL;DR: I'm calling for peak swell to run head high to a foot overhead by Wednesday the 17th at south facing breaks, although sets may be somewhat inconsistent with fewer than normal waves per set and longer than normal wait times between sets.
After peaking Wednesday the 17th, size should run chest to head high Thursday the 18th at south facing breaks, and chest high Friday the 19th.
Saturday the 20th is looking at moderate SW ground swell from this system traveling north near French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That will likely produce chest+ sets at south facing breaks Saturday the 20th and Sunday the 21st, with swell angled from 205° and periods 16 seconds. This swell would back down to about waist to chest Monday the 22nd when swell from that lower latitude system comes ashore, which staying in the deep latitudes works out to just waist high sets.
Waist high waves will likely continue from other southern hemi activity on the medium- to long-range models for Tuesday the 23rd through Thursday the 25th.
Friday the 26th could see the next SW ground swell from a couple storms on the long range near New Zealand. Here's one of them on the 9-day outlook (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
So far, that looks like a chest high swell for SoCal, angled from 210° and periods 17-18 seconds. This needs more monitoring but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific and keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is critical to keep this report alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 10th should run 2-3' overhead at most south facing spots with pluses at standouts.
Thursday the 11th looks about head high at south facing spots with some pluses possible in the morning.
Friday the 12th looks about chest to at times head high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 13th is expected to run chest high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 14th is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks.
Monday the 15th looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 16th is expected to run head high at south facing spots on the better set waves, but chest high on the average sets, with sets being inconsistent as swell fills in.
Wednesday the 17th is expected to run head high to a foot overhead at south facing breaks, but sets may be inconsistent with long lulls between sets and fewer than normal waves per set.
Thursday the 18th, so far, looks about head high at south facing spots, with the same consistency issue.
Friday the 19th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 20th, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing spots.
Sunday the 21st, so far, looks about chest+ at south facing breaks.
Monday the 22nd, so far, looks about waist to at times chest high at south facing breaks.
Tuesday the 23rd, so far, looks about waist high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 9th) high pressure is transitioning into the region, moving east from the Pacific to the west coast. This high will peak over the American West in a couple days for a warm-up each day. Although we have a decent onshore push this morning, marine layer is being scoured out by strong winds in the outer waters and across Pt. Conception with gusts running 30-40 mph at the West SB outer water buoy, parts of the Channel Islands, and through the Gaviota Pass. Nearshore winds will be much lighter. But these northerly, outer water winds disrupt marine layer development; so although we have a moderate thermal inversion, the mixing of air from the northerly winds will inhibit marine layer development today and tomorrow, more so from LA north where winds are most disruptive.
BTW: I have illustrations that explain this in more detail in Wave By Wave on pages 131-135.
Outer water winds were calming down this morning north of Pt. Conception and they'll diminish across SoCal by Thursday the 11th. That will be the window of opportunity for marine layer to become reestablished for morning sessions. The question is, how thick. With Palm Springs reaching 110° by the weekend, the thermal inversion over the SoCal coast will be inevitable. But the coastal waters — and air temps too — are not as cool as they were just a couple weeks ago; so at the peak of the heat late this week, the inversion should run a moderate Δ8-10°F over the beaches. That's enough to support marine layer thickening, but not nearly as strong as what we see during major inversion events that often reach Δ15°F, which would make for much later burn-offs.
High pressure should then stay put over the American West through the weekend into early next week, breaking down by Wednesday the 17th for an increase in the onshore flow.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 9th) is looking at an early burn-off with marine layer dissipating by mid morning. Max beach temps should run in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Wednesday the 10th is looking at AM marine layer and a midmorning burn-off, but with spotty pockets of marine layer at times along parts of the coast into the afternoon. Beach max temps should reach the low 70s
Thursday the 11th should see AM marine layer and a mid to late morning burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Friday the 12th should see AM marine layer and a late morning burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Saturday the 13th should see AM marine layer and a late morning burn-off. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Sunday the 14th should see AM marine layer with a later burn-off, possibly not until noon or early afternoon at many beaches. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere. Afternoon onshores should reach 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 10th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Thursday the 11th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Friday the 12th should see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
