SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Thursday 3/26/26 5:20 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
Subscribe to be notified:
Get notified when this report is updated.
At a glance:
Today (Thursday the 26th) we have a light mix of NW wind swell and SW ground swell in SoCal. NW swell has been downgraded for the Wednesday the 1st. Moderate southern hemisphere ground swell is expected by Sunday the 5th. And NW wind swell is being watched for the 6th. Condition-wise: onshore flow remains in place; rain being monitored for next week; winds stay moderate; tide levels swing a bit wider next week; and water temps are fair.
|
|
|
Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 8-11 seconds from 310° and 15 seconds from 190°.
Most west facing breaks were running waist to chest high. South facing spots were mostly knee to waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 8-10'. Nearshore buoys were running right under 2'.
Tide levels are fair but we will see a somewhat deep morning high over the next few days as we approach a Full Moon Wednesday the 1st. Today we have a 5' high around 4:00 AM, a -0.5' low around noon, and a 3.5' high around 7:30 PM.
Water temps were running 63-66° around most of SD and OC. LA was about 63-65°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 64° last night. SB Harbor reported 65°.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Thursday the 26th) wind swell has increased a bit from this pattern you might recall from earlier reports with surface high pressure off the PNW interacting with lower pressure southeast of SoCal (model by UQAM):
Winds were gusting this morning to about 30 mph west of the Channel Islands, but with much lighter winds closer to the coast. These outer water winds should back off tonight, leaving waist high-ish wind swell waves at west facing breaks Friday the 27th.
Friday the 27th (late) into Saturday the 28th should see minor southern hemi ground swell from this system that formed near French Polynesia (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Some wind swell should linger Friday the 27th, but it should be greatly degraded Saturday the 28th when this small southern hemi peaks at waist high at south facing breaks. Swell should be angled from 200° with periods 15 seconds.
Sunday the 29th through Wednesday the 1st look like small surf days. Some minor WestPac and southern hemi pulses should come ashore, but most spots are looking at knee to waist high waves through that 4-day span.
Thursday the 2nd was originally slated for NW ground and wind swell, but models have greatly downgraded that idea today. As it stands right now, west facing breaks would see waist high wind swell waves Thursday the 2nd. Southern hemi by then will be smaller at south facing spots. Friday the 3rd looks similar.
Saturday the 4th (building day) into Sunday the 5th (peak) will very likely see southerly ground swell from this activity breaking off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's a tad east of the SoCal longitude, coming in from a SSE angle to us; however, the course is ideal with plenty of northward momentum. Running the numbers this morning, this works out to chest+ sets at south facing breaks by Sunday the 5th. Saturday the 4th should run waist to chest as this swell fills in. Swell should be angled from 175-180° with periods 16 seconds. Although there's still another day or two to confirm, models have been so consistent and aligned that I'm comfortable calling it.
Monday the 6th, as the southern hemi swell lingers, we might see an injection of NW wind swell. Being a close-proximity feature, this is out on the extended long range with models far from aligning. I popped a yellow pin in my charts this morning and I'll see how it goes over the coming days.
Friday the 10th or Saturday the 11th looks like the next southern hemi's ETA from this system near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That's not a great course for SoCal swell, with size right now coming in at waist high for south facing breaks, angled from 205° with periods 17 seconds. It is on the 6-day models so it needs more monitoring. But as long as I have your support, then I can continue to watch the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
|
|
|
Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Friday the 27th looks about waist to at times chest high at west facing breaks and waist high at south facing spots.
Saturday the 28th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Sunday the 29th looks about waist high at most breaks.
Monday the 30th looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Tuesday the 31st looks about knee to waist high at most breaks.
Wednesday the 1st looks about knee to waist at most breaks.
Thursday the 2nd, so far, looks about waist high at west facing breaks, smaller at south facing spots.
Friday the 3rd, so far, looks about knee to waist everywhere.
Saturday the 4th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing spots and waist max at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 5th, so far, is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Monday the 6th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots. NW wind swell is being monitored.
Tuesday the 7th, so far, looks about chest max at south facing spots. NW wind swell is being monitored.
Wednesday the 8th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks.
Thursday the 9th, so far, looks about waist max everywhere.
Friday the 10th, so far, looks about waist high at south facing breaks, smaller at west facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Thursday the 26th) weak high pressure over SoCal, combined with a decent thermal inversion from recent inland heating, is making for another day of fairly thick marine layer at the coast. High pressure should strengthen Friday the 27th, but only moderately. Over the weekend the inversion is expected to weaken, which should reduce the marine layer. At the same time though, patches of high clouds drifting off Pacific storm activity should pass over SoCal for at least partly-cloudy days this weekend.
High pressure should break down Sunday while more clouds move in from a stormy trough of low pressure approaching the west coast. This has been holding potential for rain by Wednesday the 1st, but models are very far apart right now. At the very least, we should see a decent onshore push Sunday the 29th through the first half of the week. Rain is a tougher call as the GFS model shows light rain Wednesday the 1st; the ECMWF shows little to no rain; and the CMC is bullish with heavy rain by Wednesday the 1st. Hopefully models will have some consensus by the time I do my next report (Sunday).
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Thursday the 26th) should see a mid to late morning burn-off and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Friday the 27th should see AM marine layer with a midmorning burn-off followed by high clouds, and max beach temps in the upper 60s.
Saturday the 28th will likely see AM marine layer with an early AM burn-off but skies should be partly- to mostly-cloudy as high clouds drift through the area. Max beach temps should reach the low 70s.
Sunday the 29th should see minimal AM marine layer with a quick burn-off and max beach temps in the low 70s.
Monday the 30th should see some AM marine layer, but higher clouds should thicken up throughout the day. Max beach temps should reach the upper 60s to low 70s.
Tuesday the 31st might see rain approach SoCal. Rain chances are low until the evening. Skies look mostly cloudy. Max beach temps will likely run in the upper 60s.
Wednesday the 1st could see rain. There's about a 60% chance of rain with a 30% chance of that being heavy. There is though a 40% chance of little to no rain. This needs more monitoring over the next few days.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 5:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere along the SoCal coast. Afternoon onshores should reach 10 mph.
Friday the 27th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores to 10 mph
Saturday the 28th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph
Sunday the 29th should see AM light and variables with afternoon onshores 10-15 mph
Until my next report (Sunday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
