SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 8/25/26 5:00 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 25th) we have light to moderate southern hemisphere ground swell in SoCal with almost no NW wind swell. Southerly swell builds tonight from Iselle, peaking Wednesday the 26th. A good sized SW ground swell is due this weekend. Tropical swell is being watched for the 31st-1st. And a decent sized southern hemi swell is likely for the 4th-5th. Condition-wise: heatwave wanes in a few days; minor precip chances for some areas; winds stay moderate for the most part but stronger in some areas in a couple days; tide levels swing wider over the next few days; and water temps remain on the warm side.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 14 seconds from 195°. Occasional energy from Iselle was coming through at times from 165° but that will stay minor today, increasing tomorrow.
Most south facing spots were running waist to chest high. Direct west facing breaks were mostly waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 5-6'. Nearshore buoys were running 1.9-2.2'.
Tide levels swing wider over the next few days as we approach a Full Moon Thursday the 27th. Today we have a -0.2' low around 3:30 AM, a 4' high around 9:30 AM, a 2.3' low around 2:30 PM, and a near 6' high around 8:30 PM.
Water temps were running 72-75° around most of SD and OC. LA was mostly 70-72°. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor has been running 69-71° over the past 24 hours. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 69° this morning.
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Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 25th) we're still seeing SW ground swell from this system and another that formed behind that broke off Antarctica almost two weeks ago (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
While southerly swell from that activity will continue Wednesday the 26th, it'll be mostly overshadowed by better sized tropical swell.
Wednesday the 26th (building this evening) should see southerly swell from Iselle, which peaked ideally in our swell window (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
Julio formed on Iselle's tail, creating a minor Fujiwhara. Julio should be subsumed by Iselle, which has topped out with seas 20-25'. That works out to sets running head high (max) at south facing breaks Wednesday the 26th, angled from 180° and periods 14 seconds. Since that angle is also within the range for refraction from the San Diego Trough (page 111), standouts that work it could see slightly bigger set waves at times. Since shorter periods will also be in the mix from Iselle's proximity, some sets will be smaller. In any case, size should dip to chest to at times head high at south facing breaks Thursday the 27th and waist to chest Friday the 28th.
Saturday the 29th (building early and quickly) into Sunday the 30th should see decent sized SW ground swell from this southern hemi system you might recall from last week's reports that took a high latitude course (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That should put most south facing breaks into chest to head high sets, angled from 200° with periods 17 seconds. This swell should back off to chest to at times head high Monday the 31st and chest max Tuesday the 1st; however, we may see more tropical swell by then (more on that in a sec).
Along with southern hemi ground swell, Sunday the 30th will likely see light to moderate NW wind swell in the mix from a trough of low pressure pushing south toward SoCal (more on that in the Weather section below). So far, winds look just strong enough in the outer waters to stir up waist to chest high wind swell waves for west facing breaks starting Sunday the 30th, lasting for a few days. Southern hemi ground swell should be dominant.
Monday the 31st (building day?) into Tuesday the 1st (peak?), along with fading southern hemi, we could see tropical swell from this system, which could be named Karina (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
That GFS model is the most bullish on the 5-day outlook, which estimates seas around 30'. Other models keep it around 20'. If the GFS has it right then south facing breaks would be looking at sets running head high+, angled from 180° and periods 16 seconds. This is a departure from earlier models, which delayed Karina's swell until the 5th with much bigger seas. I'm sure models will align better over the next couple days so I can make a higher confidence call in my next report.
Friday the 4th (building day) into Saturday the 5th (peak) will likely see good sized SW ground swell from this system on the 2-day models near New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NCEP data):
With 30'+ seas from that position, south facing breaks are looking at sets running chest+ on average and head high at standouts. Swell should be angled from 205° with periods 17 seconds.This swell would continue Sunday the 6th, then drop to chest max Monday the 7th, smaller Tuesday the 8th.
Looking out further on the long range, tropical swell potential is moderate to high as we get into September as the MJO is returning to the eastern Pacific (pages 85-88 in Surf, Flood, Fire & Mud). El Niño, however, is having more of an impact as the signal is already at a very high 1.8°C (red arrow). That puts El Niño well into the official strong category already and there's more strengthening ahead (model from NOAA CPC)
El Niño remains on track to reach or exceed the very strong category in a couple months, teasing the 2.5°C mark. By comparison, the El Niño of 2015-16 measured 2.6°C, and the 1997-98 Niño was 2.4°C. With waters being especially warm right now, coupled with the MJO's return, tropical cyclone potential increases. However, models — even the ensembles — are wavering on long range hurricanes at the moment with no agreement from day-10 onward. Given all the elements in play, this could change rather quickly. All of this needs a lot more monitoring but as long as I have your support then I can continue to keep an eye on the Pacific to keep you posted. Please remember this report is funded by reader donations and your help is needed to keep it alive (see why here).
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 26th is expected to run head high at most south facing spots.
Thursday the 27th looks about chest to at times head high at south facing spots.
Friday the 28th should run chest max at south facing spots.
Saturday the 29th is expected to run chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Sunday the 30th looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks and waist to chest at west facing spots.
Monday the 31st, so far, looks about chest max at south facing spots and waist to chest at west facing breaks. However, there is potential for hurricane swell to build during the day.
Tuesday the 1st, so far, holds potential for at least head high hurricane swell at south facing spots; however, that's in the 50% chance category with a 50% chance of seeing chest high surf as models are split on the strength of what could be named Karina.
Wednesday the 2nd, so far, looks similar with the same question marks.
Thursday the 3rd, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks.
Friday the 4th, so far, looks about chest to head high at south facing breaks.
Saturday the 5th, so far, looks similar.
Sunday the 6th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing spots.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 25th) the heatwave is gaining strength and about to warm even more as strong high pressure (blue circle) is moving west from Texas into the 4-Corners region, expanding farther into SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That large dome of high pressure is running a rather strong 597dm (600 is extreme), but two other variables are helping to turn up the heat. The first is a north-to-south offshore gradient between the inland high and Pacific low pressure trough (red circle). This should run -2.5mb offshore over the next few days (light to moderate northerly offshore), which will create compressional heating (page 143). The second issue is tropical moisture being drawn into SoCal from the high's clockwise spin, tapping into moisture from Iselle and Julio. This will increase the heat index while adding a wet heat blanket, reducing the amount of evaporative cooling we'd get each night. And even though desert heat will cause a typical inversion at the coast, SoCal waters and beaches are so abnormally warm right now that it won't make much difference with quick burn-offs most days (see illustration on page 134).
Tropical clouds will also stream in many days, especially in a couple days as Iselle works her way north. In fact, there is so much tropical moisture entering SoCal that some models show a spritz of precip passing through SD and OC Thursday the 27th. It wouldn't be much, if anything, but an example of how humid it will be at times over the next few days.
But relief is in sight. The 4-Corners high should start moving east Saturday the 29th (barely), more so Sunday the 30th. A trough of low pressure should then be along the SoCal latitudes by Monday the 31st to increase the onshore flow and cut off the tropical flow. A much heftier trough could then arrive by late next week for a more notable cool-down.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 25th) should see a thin AM marine layer, early burn-off, minimal tropical clouds at times and max beach temps in the upper 70s.
Wednesday the 26th should see a thin AM marine layer, early burn-off and max beach temps around 80° to low 80s. However, some models show patchy marine layer here and there until noon.
Thursday the 27th should see a thin AM marine layer with an early burn-off, followed by a good amount of tropical clouds. Max beach temps should reach the low 80s.
Friday the 28th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off late morning, followed by tropical clouds at times. Beach max temps should reach the low 80s.
Saturday the 29th should see AM marine layer with a burn-off mid to late morning, earliest north of LA. Beach max temps should reach the upper 70s.
Sunday the 30th should see little to no AM marine layer. Max beach temps should reach the mid 70s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 5:00 AM were light to calm most everywhere with a slight offshore effect from LA north. Afternoon onshores should reach 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 26th is expected to see AM light and variables with a northerly element and afternoon onshores 7-11 mph.
Thursday the 27th is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 7-11 mph.
Friday the 28th is expected to see AM light and variables and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph, stronger mid to late afternoon north of LA to 20 mph at times.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
