SoCal Forecast
Updated most Sundays, Tuesdays, and Thursdays
Tuesday 3/31/26 6:10 AM
By Nathan Cool
Surf Charts for SoCal
Rincon | Ventura, C-St. | County Line | Malibu | Hermosa | Huntington BeachTrestles | Old Mans | Oceanside | Beacons | Sunset Cliffs
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At a glance:
Today (Tuesday the 31st) is a small day for surf in SoCal. NW wind swell picks up a bit Thursday the 2nd into Friday the 3rd. Cleaner southern hemi swell builds this weekend. Moderate SW ground swell is being watched for late next week with NW ground swell in the mix. And the wind swell for late next week is now a toss-up. Condition-wise: onshore flow with light rain chances for the short term; winds problematic at times; pleasant weather follows for a few days; the tide is swinging wide; and water temps are fair.
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Current Conditions:
Early this morning, periods were primarily running 12 seconds from 180° and 12 seconds from 295°.
Most breaks were running knee to waist high.
Buoys in the outer waters were running 2-3'. Nearshore buoys were right below 1.5'.
Tide levels are swinging wide as we approach a Full Moon Wednesday the 1st. Today we have a 5' high around 9:00 AM, a -0.1' low around 3:30 PM, and a 5.5' high around 9:30 PM.
Water temps were running 62-65° around most of SD, OC, and LA. In VC, Channel Islands Harbor reported 61° last night. In SB, Stearns Wharf reported 65° this morning.
Surf Forecast:
Today (Tuesday the 31st) is quite a small day in the SoCal surf zone, and Wednesday the 1st looks similar. But waves are on the way, first with NW wind swell before cleaner ground swell this weekend.
Thursday the 2nd should be the building day for the NW wind swell, peaking Friday the 3rd as this minor trough of low pressure passes through SoCal (model by NOAA MAG):
That should bring light rain later today (see Weather section below) followed by NW winds in its wake once the trough moves east. The wind swell should build in the afternoon Thursday the 2nd, peaking Friday the 3rd at chest max at west facing breaks. At the same time, we should also see slightly longer periods from that low pressure system high in the Gulf of Alaska on that model, which is expected to stir up 18' seas. That'd produce waist to chest high waves at west facing breaks Friday the 3rd and Saturday the 4th, so nearly the same as the wind swell, just with slightly longer periods. Both the wind swell and Gulf swell should be angled from around 310°. Periods should run 8-10 seconds from the wind swell and 12 seconds from the Gulf.
Saturday the 4th, as wind swell drops off and the minor Gulf swell lingers, southerly ground swell should build, peaking Sunday the 5th from this activity that recently broke off Antarctica (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That was a tad east of the SoCal longitude, coming in from a SSE angle; however, the course was ideal with plenty of northward momentum. This should bring initially waist to chest high sets to south facing breaks Saturday the 4th as this swell fills in; chest+ Sunday the 5th; chest high Monday the 6th; waist to at times chest high Tuesday the 7th; and then waist high Wednesday the 8th. Swell should be angled from 175-180° with periods 16 seconds.
Thursday the 9th (building day) into Friday the 10th (peak) should see SW ground swell from this low latitude, Antarctic system southeast of New Zealand (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
Thursday the 9th should start out with initially waist to chest high sets at south facing breaks, increasing to more consistently chest high Friday the 10th. Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th should see another swell behind that one to keep south facing breaks in waist to chest high waves. Swell should be angled from 205° with periods initially 18 seconds.
Friday the 10th into Saturday the 11th is also looking at intermittent NW ground swell in the mix from this system on the 4-day models near Japan (model generated by XyGrib from NFCENS data):
That would add sporadic chest max sets to west facing breaks by Saturday the 11th, angled from 305° and periods 15 seconds. There'd be few waves per set and long lulls between sets. But there's something else that needs watching around this time.
There are question marks on potential wind swell by the end of next week and over the weekend of the 10th-11th. Models are waffling on their own individual scenarios with consensus so far apart it's impossible to get a read. An important item to note is that the GFS-WAVE data, which is used to create the automated surf charts here on WaveCast and other surf forecasting sites, is the most bullish with very hefty wind swell starting Wednesday the 8th, lasting for at least five days. No other model shows that — not the GFS itself, the ECMWF, CMC, or ensembles. However, each has a different take on either a trough of low pressure or cut-off low swinging through the area by the weekend of the 11th-12th. So as it stands right now, the automated charts are not showing the most likely scenario and this needs a lot more monitoring over the next week.
Looking out further on the long range, southern hemi models show potential for smallish ground swells — waist high or so — starting Tuesday the 14th. This is one of a few things that need more monitoring over the next few days, but as long as I have your support, then I can continue to watch the Pacific to keep this report going and keep you posted.
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Here's a brief look at how the next few days are breaking down so far:
Wednesday the 1st looks about knee to waist at most breaks.
Thursday the 2nd should start out at waist high at west facing breaks early but with wind swell building during the day.
Friday the 3rd looks about chest high at west facing breaks and waist max at south facing spots.
Saturday the 4th looks about waist to chest max at south facing spots and waist to at times chest high at west facing breaks.
Sunday the 5th is expected to run chest+ at south facing breaks and waist high at west facing spots.
Monday the 6th looks about chest high at south facing spots and knee to waist at west facing spots.
Tuesday the 7th, so far, looks about waist to chest max at south facing spots.
Wednesday the 8th, so far, looks about waist high at most breaks; however, there is a chance that NW wind swell could start to build around this time.
Thursday the 9th, so far, looks about waist to chest at south facing breaks. NW wind swell needs more monitoring and could be much bigger.
Friday the 10th, so far, looks about chest high at south facing breaks, but NW wind swell needs more monitoring and could be much bigger.
Saturday the 11th, so far, looks about chest high at most breaks, but NW wind swell needs more monitoring and could be much bigger.
Sunday the 12th, so far, looks about waist to chest at most breaks, but NW wind swell needs more monitoring and could be much bigger.
Weather Outlook:
Today (Tuesday the 31st) a weak trough of low pressure is pushing into SoCal, which should bring scattered light rain this afternoon. Doppler radar showed some precip moving through parts of OC and SD this morning, although that's likely drizzle and/or virga. This will be a quick hitter with rain ending before dawn Wednesday the 1st.
Once that trough passes to the east Wednesday the 1st, NW winds should increase in the afternoon, staying onshore Thursday the 2nd for most of the day, and strong at times (see Wind section below).
Friday the 3rd should see a mild to moderate Santa Ana in the wake of the low's eastward passage, making for clearer skies and a rather pleasant weekend along the coast with warming temps. Models are split on how strong this would be with the often-bullish NAM showing an offshore gradient of nearly 5mb (on a scale of 1-10) but other models like the GFS show half that strength (2.5mb offshore). Either way, Friday the 3rd should transition to clearer skies, and then very clear skies at the coast this weekend.
Monday the 6th is when models go their separate ways. All agree on some form of an onshore push, either from a trough of low pressure bearing down on SoCal or a cut-off low taking a swipe at our area. For instance, here's the ECMWF's take on it, showing a robust trough of low pressure sagging well through SoCal by late next week (model from ECMWF):
The green to yellow areas show the low pressure trough, which I circled in red. I also popped a white box over SoCal. That looks like the most likely scenario right now, which wouldn't tighten up the gradients enough to create the significantly sized wind swell showing up for the second half of next week noted above, but it would make for much cooler air temps. No rain is expected at this point. All of this needs more monitoring.
Taking all of this into account, here's how I'm calling SoCal beach weather for the next few days:
Today (Tuesday the 31st) looks cloudy all day. Rain is possible either this afternoon into the evening but spotty. Areas that do see rain should stay at or under 0.1". Max beach temps should reach the mid 60s.
Wednesday the 1st should see rain clear before dawn. Some AM marine layer is possible with an early burn-off as NW winds increase by noon. Max beach temps should reach the mid 60s.
Thursday the 2nd should see AM marine layer with a late burn-off, along with a fair amount of upper-level clouds. Beach max temps should reach the mid 60s.
Friday the 3rd should see a thin AM marine layer with an early burn-off. Beach max temps should reach the upper 60s.
Saturday the 4th looks clear with beach max temps in the low 70s.
Sunday the 5th looks clear with beach max temps in the low 70s.
Monday the 6th, so far, is looking at partly cloudy skies with max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Tuesday the 7th, so far, looks fairly clear with max beach temps in the mid 60s.
Wind Outlook:
Winds
at 6:00 AM were light and variable most everywhere with a slight southerly element in many spots. Afternoon onshores should reach 10-15 mph.
Wednesday the 1st should see early AM onshores 5-10 mph and early afternoon onshores to 15 mph, increasing to 20 mph mid to late afternoon, with higher gusts north of LA.
Thursday the 2nd is expected to see early AM onshores 5-10 mph and early afternoon onshores to 15 mph, increasing to 20 mph mid to late afternoon. Winds may gust over 25 mph north of LA mid to late afternoon.
Friday the 3rd should see light AM offshores 5-10 mph and afternoon onshores to 15 mph.
Saturday the 4th, so far, is expected to see AM offshores to 10 mph in most spots, but up to 15 mph around the wind-prone sections of VC. Winds are expected to shift onshore early to mid afternoon to 15 mph.
Sunday the 5th, so far, is expected to see AM offshores 4-8 mph and afternoon onshores 10-15 mph.
Until my next report (Thursday), take care, be safe, and smile in the lineup!
